The Quarterback Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
It’s Week 13: The autumn byes have passed. Winter is coming. Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 13-game DraftKings and 14-game FanDuel main slates.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
Thanks to the confluence of matchups, injuries, and prime time games this week, the top of the quarterback salary scale is dominated by just one player: Tom Brady ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel).
Winners of seven straight games, the Patriots are second in the slate with an implied total of 28.0 points as -7.5 road favorites. While it’s hard to cast shade at Brady, there’s nothing especially advantageous with this spot. Brady doesn’t have a great matchup: The Bills are 11th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They have a good edge pass rusher in Jerry Hughes, and their secondary has three players — cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer — with top-10 Pro Football Focus coverage grades at their positions. It’s not as if the Bills have a great pass defense, but his matchup isn’t why Brady’s the slate’s most expensive quarterback. In fact, with the 27th rush DVOA, the Bills defense might funnel production away from Brady and toward the New England backfield. It also doesn’t help that Brady, especially as he’s aged, has tended to fall off on the road against divisional opponents in the second half of the season, putting up -5.23 DraftKings and -5.86 FanDuel Plus/Minus values in that situation since 2014.
But if the Pats want Brady to throw the ball a lot against the Bills, he can probably do it with success. Even at 40 years of age, Brady is playing the best football of his career. After a disappointing Week 1 performance in which he completed just 44.4 percent of his passes, Brady has been on a tear in his past 10 games, throwing for 3,107 yards and 26 touchdowns with a 70.7 percent completion rate. Leading the league with 3,374 yards passing and 279 completions, Brady has been playing at a peak level ever since returning from his Deflategate suspension. In his 23 regular season games since last year, Angry Tom has averaged 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A); in the half-decade prior, he averaged 8.0 AY/A. Even though wide receiver Chris Hogan (shoulder) and right tackle Marcus Cannon (ankle) haven’t played in about a month, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns in each game since his Week 9 bye. Unsurprisingly, Brady has position-high median projections in our Models.
Hot Routes
Philip Rivers ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): The Chargers lead the slate with an implied total of 28.25 points as -14 home favorites against the Browns, who have a quarterback-friendly funnel defense that is second against the run and 27th against the pass in DVOA. The Chargers have the slate’s highest passing points expectation, and Rivers will likely be the centerpiece of many stacks involving wide receiver Keenan Allen and tight end Hunter Henry. We’re projecting Rivers to be the slate’s chalkiest quarterback.
Drew Brees ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): The Saints are implied for 26.0 points as -4.0 favorites at the Coors Field of fantasy football, but Brees is averaging just 33.9 pass attempts per game compared to 41.5 for the previous five seasons. He has hit salary-based expectations in just 36.4 percent of games this year.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Taylor has +6.74 DraftKings and +6.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus values with 100 percent Consistency Ratings at home against divisional opponents. The Bills are +7.5 home dogs against the Pats, who have allowed top-five fantasy marks with 21.3 DraftKings and 19.7 FanDuel PPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Cam Newton ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Newton is inconsistent, but the Panthers-Saints game is second on the slate with a 48.0-point over/under, and the New Orleans secondary is banged up: Stud outside cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore (ankle) and Ken Crawley (abdomen) both missed last week and are yet to practice this week. Newton has position-high ceiling and floor projections on FanDuel.
Blake Bortles ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): The Jags are -9.5 home favorites against the Colts, who are 28th in pass defense DVOA, but Bortles has passed for more than a touchdown in just one game this year, and the Jags are last in the league with a 49.93 percent pass rate.
Mitchell Trubisky ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Trubisky is basically the lesser Bortles. The Bears are -3.5 home favorites against the 49ers, who have allowed top-two fantasy marks of 21.3 DraftKings and 20.4 FanDuel PPG to quarterbacks. The 49ers are exploitable — safeties Jaquiski Tartt (arm) and Jimmie Ward (arm) are out for the year and cornerbacks Dontae Johnson (42.2) and K’Waun Williams (38.5) have horrible PFF coverage grades — but Trubisky is yet to score more than one touchdown in a game.
Derek Carr ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): The Raiders are -9.5 home favorites against the Giants, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks with 21.0 DraftKings and 19.8 FanDuel PPG. We’ll find out what wide receivers Amari Cooper (concussion, ankle) and Michael Crabtree (suspension) are worth to Carr.
Brett Hundley ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): It’s great that Hundley just put up three touchdowns against the tough Steelers and now faces the Buccaneers, who are 30th in pass defense DVOA — but Hundley has scored more than a touchdown in just one game and has never passed for more than 245 yards.
Blaine Gabbert ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): A potential pivot play, Gabbert has scored 17.52 DraftKings and 16.96 FanDuel PPG with +3.18 and +4.17 Plus/Minus values in his 15 post-Jacksonville starts. The Cardinals have averaged 24 PPG over the past two weeks as Gabbert has thrown for 498 yards and five touchdowns (to three interceptions) on 44-of-72 passing. The Rams have held quarterbacks to bottom-five marks with 14.5 DraftKings and 13.9 FanDuel PPG, but edge defender Connor Barwin (arm) is out, and slot cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman (thigh) is questionable after missing Week 12.
Matt Ryan ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Even if wide receiver Julio Jones has a big game as the slate’s preeminent market share monster, that doesn’t mean Ryan will get his. The Falcons are -3.0 home favorites, but the Vikings have a respectable pass defense with edge rushers Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter, cornerback Xavier Rhodes, and strong safety Harrison Smith. Plus, Ryan has underperformed in 17 games as a home favorite in the Dan Quinn era, averaging -1.54 DraftKings and -1.58 FanDuel Plus/Minus values.
Jared Goff ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): The Rams are -7.0 road favorites against the Cardinals, who have allowed top-five fantasy marks with 20.2 DraftKings and 19.9 FanDuel PPG. In eight victories this year, Goff has averaged 279 yards passing and 2.25 total touchdowns per game.
Carson Wentz ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): The Eagles have hit their implied Vegas total in an elite 10 of 11 games, and Wentz leads the league with 28 touchdowns passing and 20 inside the red zone. Wentz has a tough Week 13 matchup on the road against the Seahawks, but cornerback Richard Sherman (Achilles) and safety Kam Chancellor (neck) are out and cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion) is questionable. After the line opened, it moved quickly from -3.5 to -5.0 in favor of Philadelphia. Wentz leads the position with a 71 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is rosterable in the main slate.
Geno Smith ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Stone minimum, Smith has replaced Eli Manning as the starting quarterback of the Giants. Smith was horrible (5.6 AY/A) for the first two years of his career, but he had a caveman head coach in Rex Ryan and antiquated offensive coordinator in Marty Mornhinweg. Under OC Chan Gailey in 2015-16, Smith completed 62.5 percent of his 56 pass attempts in limited action, throwing for 391 yards and three touchdowns (to two interceptions). He completed 66.7 percent his 54 pass attempts this preseason for 355 yards. As a draft prospect in 2013 he was one of the highest-rated passers in the history of my quarterback model, displaying phenomenal accuracy (71.2 percent completion rate) and efficiency (9.2 AY/A) and solid mobility (2.3 yards per carry) in his final college season. It’s possible — possible — that he’s a good quarterback who for the first part of his career was sabotaged by circumstance. Giants HC Ben McAdoo isn’t the long-term guy to help Geno resurrect his career, but at least he should have a pass-heavy game script as a +9.5 road dog against the Raiders, who are dead last in pass defense DVOA.
The Model Quarterbacks
There are five quarterbacks atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek).
- Russell Wilson ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- Marcus Mariota ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
- Josh McCown ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- Jameis Winston ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
- Trevor Siemian ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
Available only on the FanDuel main slate, Wilson is in the rare position of being a home dog. While Wilson’s matchup isn’t great against the Eagles and their No. 4 pass DVOA defense, he’s at least likely to have a pass-heavy game script as a +5.0 dog. A notoriously slow starter, Wilson has been the No. 1 fantasy quarterback since his Week 6 bye, passing for 1,807 yards, rushing for 247 yards, and scoring 17 total touchdowns. Wilson has a correlation coefficient of over 0.50 with wide receiver Paul Richardson and tight end Jimmy Graham, and the Seahawks could be contrarian because of their Vegas data and matchup. Use our Lineup Builder to stack Rich and Graham with Wilson, who leads the position in Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated quarterback in the Bales and SportsGeek Models.
It’s hard to be excited about a guy with eight interceptions (two per game) and negative Plus/Minus values since his bye week, but Mariota is at home as a -7.0 favorite against the Texans, who have allowed top-two fantasy marks to quarterbacks with 21.7 DraftKings and 20.1 FanDuel PPG. Mariota will be all the more intriguing if No. 1 wide receiver Rishard Matthews (hamstring) is able to play. Blessed with some Konami Code capability, Mariota is the highest-rated FanDuel quarterback in the CSURAM88 Model.
McCown isn’t sexy, but he gets the job done. His 67.3 percent completion rate and 7.2 AY/A are more than satisfactory, and his willingness to air the ball out to big-play wide receiver Robby Anderson (15.2-yard average depth of target) increases his upside. The Jets are implied for only 20.5 points as +3.0 dogs, but McCown is at home and could benefit from a pass-heavy game script. Although the Chiefs have cornerback Marcus Peters, their secondary is exploitable. Peters plays exclusively on the left, so teams scheme away from him and instead attack right corner Terrance Mitchell, who this year has allowed league-high marks with two yards per coverage snap and 4.4 coverage snaps per target. In their dime package, the Chiefs use three safeties with PFF grades below 50.0. The McCown-Anderson stack has big potential this week. McCown leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he pulls off “The Full Donkey” as the highest-rated quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models.
Winston (shoulder) hasn’t played since Week 9, but he is scheduled to throw in practice this week after his MRI on Monday looked good. If Winston suffers a setback then Ryan Fitzpatrick will once again serve as the injury fill-in, but barring any injury issues Winston will have a nice matchup against the Packers, who have a rotating crew of cornerbacks (Damarious Randall, Davon House, Kevin King, and Josh Hawkins) who all have PFF coverage grades below 50.0. Winston leads the position with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the highest-rated quarterback in the SportsGeek Model.
Out of the trio of Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch, the former seventh-rounder has been the best over the past two seasons (6.5 AY/A vs. 5.0 for Osweiler and Lynch). Siemian has two strong wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and he’s a -1.0 road favorite against the Dolphins, who are 31st in pass defense DVOA. As noted on the Week 13 Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Siemian will have low ownership relative to his upside. He’s the highest-rated FanDuel quarterback in the Levitan Model.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the quarterbacks for yourself with our tools, and read the other Week 12 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
