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Quarterbacks
Tom Brady: $7,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
The Patriots are currently implied to score a slate-high 26.0 points as -7.5 favorites on the road in Denver. In 22 starts as a road favorite since 2014, Brady has been unimpressive, posting 19.59 points per game (PPG) with a -0.63 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 18.40 PPG with a -1.79 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. In four home games this season, the Broncos defense has held two opposing quarterbacks (Eli Manning and Derek Carr) under 10 points and has yielded just 13.86 PPG to quarterbacks on average. Still, Brady has the position’s highest projected ceiling on the primetime slate, and the Patriots’ average of 72 offensive snaps per game should provide him with ample opportunity to accumulate points.
Cam Newton: $6,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
In his first game without Kelvin Benjamin, Netwon rushed the ball nine times for 86 yards and one touchdown, so unsurprisingly Newton has the highest floor projection among quarterbacks on the small slate. Newton has racked up 251 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in his last four games and hasn’t rushed for fewer than 44 yards in any of those games. Playing as large -10 favorites at home, the Panthers could choose to take the ball out of Cam’s hands and limit Netwon’s upside, but that possibility would be more concerning if it weren’t for this fact: Since 2014, Newton has averaged 30.97 PPG with a massive +11.33 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 29.57 PPG with a +9.84 Plus/Minus on FanDuel as a big home favorite.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: $7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
McCaffrey is easily the safest running back on this slate: He carries our highest median, ceiling, and floor projections. Over the past four weeks, McCaffrey has seen the largest target market share (25.9 percent) on the Panthers and a team-high six opportunities inside the 10-yard line. McCaffrey hasn’t been targeted fewer than five times in a game all season, and over the past four weeks he has averaged nine targets per game. As an added bonus, he led the Panthers with 15 carries last week, rushing for a career-high 66 yards and one touchdown.
Kenyan Drake: $4,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
In his one game without Jay Ajayi, Drake appeared to be the lead dog in the Dolphins backfield by committee. Carolina has been tough on running backs this season, allowing the third-fewest PPG to the position on DraftKings (19.0) and FanDuel (16.2), but the Panthers have also allowed the ninth-most targets (67) and eighth-most receptions (50) to running backs, and Drake made six catches on six targets last week. In a game in which the Dolphins could trail, Drake may have an opportunity to get some steady volume in the passing game.
James White: $4,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
White is the No. 1 running back in the Bales Model for FanDuel, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating. With wide receiver Chris Hogan (shoulder) — second on the Patriots in target share the past four weeks — declared out against the Broncos, White could see an increased role in the passing game. White has gotten 6, 5, 7, 9, and 12 targets over the last five games and is likely to push towards the high end of that spectrum this week. It may surprise you to find out that White leads the Patriots with five opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four weeks.
Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas: $6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
The Patriots have allowed the third-most points per game to wide receivers on DraftKings (40.4) and second-most on FanDuel (32.6) this season. With teammate Emmanuel Sanders still nursing an ankle injury, it’s possible that Thomas could improve upon his team-leading 25.47 target market share accumulated over the past four weeks. Thomas has also led the Broncos in air yards in three of their last four games, during which time he’s averaged 69.5 yards per game. In Brock Osweiler‘s first start for Denver this season, he targeted Thomas on 31.6 percent of his throws.
Jarvis Landry: $6,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Landry leads the Dolphins in target market share (28.57 percent) and opportunities inside the 10-yard line (3) over the past four weeks. In fact, Jarvis ranks fourth in the NFL with 87 targets and third with 56 catches this season. With the Dolphins likely to chuck the rock all over the yard, it’s a good bet that Landry will rack up both targets and catches per usual. If he can get in the end zone — as he has done four times in the last five games — Landry could smash.
Tight Ends
As stated (so eloquently) by Matthew Freedman in this week’s Tight End Breakdown:
When healthy, Gronk’s the Shaquille O’Neal of tight ends. Even though Gronk has missed 25 games in his career, he leads the league with 73 touchdowns receiving since 2010. Even with a subpar Week 1 and partial Week 4, Gronk is a top-two fantasy tight end, averaging 16.84 DraftKings and 13.99 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with +0.86 and +0.69 Plus/Minus values. First on the Patriots with 56 targets, Gronk is a market share magnet.
The Broncos have allowed the third-most PPG to tight ends on DraftKings (17.8) and FanDuel (14.5) this season. In two games against the Broncos since 2014, Gronk has averaged 24.65 PPG and a robust +10.11 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 19.40 PPG and a +8.03 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
News Updates
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