The DraftKings NFL Pick‘Em format allows owners to create lineups with no salary cap. Players are assigned to eight different tiers. Owners pick one player from each tier to create their rosters. Below we break down the tiers and some of the players in each group for the 12-game main slate. Monitor our NFL news feed for player and weather updates throughout the week. For more information on the players highlighted in this article, see our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
Tier 1: Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Rodgers is a matchup-proof passer. Per our Trends tool, he was the top scorer in this group with 25.6 points per game (PPG), but he has a tough Week 1 opponent (see our NFL Matchups Dashboard). The Seahawks defense allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy PPG (15.7) to opposing quarterbacks last season, but Rodgers was solid against them when they met in Week 14, scoring 21.2 points (246 yards, three touchdowns). In our Models, Rodgers leads the slate with a projection of 25.2 points, and he currently has the second-highest ceiling projections.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Wilson is healthy again after struggling through a ankle and knee injuries in 2016. He should be able to exploit a favorable matchup this week against the Packers, who allowed the seventh-most DraftKings PPG (20.1) last year to quarterbacks. Green Bay was 22nd at defending the deep ball (Football Outsiders), while Wilson ranked fourth in deep ball attempts (5.2 per game) and seventh in deep ball completion rate (42.2 percent). The Seahawks-Packers game has the slate’s highest total at 51.5 points (per our Vegas Dashboard). Of the two quarterbacks in this game, Wilson might be the more popular pick in the tier because of his advantageous matchup. For more on Wilson, see our Week 1 quarterback breakdown.
Tier 2: Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Prescott faces one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, as the Giants allowed the second-fewest DraftKings PPG (14.2) to opposing quarterbacks last season. Although Prescott finished fourth in yards per attempt (8.0) and first in yards per completion (11.8), in two games against the Giants he averaged only 4.8 yards per attempt and 9.3 yards per completion, converting 51.2 percent of his 82 attempts for 392 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Because of the matchup he’s likely to be a low-owned contrarian-only play.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals
Palmer faces a Lions defense that allowed the second-most fantasy PPG (20.9) to quarterback in 2016. Palmer scored at least 18.0 DraftKings points eight times last year, ranking ninth in passing yards (282.1), deep ball attempts (5.1) and red zone attempts (5.5) per game. Palmer has a top-five ceiling projection in our Models.
Tier 3: Elite Running Backs & Wide Receivers
Le’Veon Bell, Steelers
If you want to go with a back, the options are Bell or David Johnson (or LeSean McCoy if you’re looking for a pivot play). Based on matchups, Bell is the preferred runner. The Browns allowed the second-most DraftKings PPG (29.0) to running backs last season. The Steelers are going to test them on Sunday with an offensive line that ranked third last year with 4.68 adjusted line yards per carry (Football Outsiders). Bell held out of training camp, but don’t expect him to be eased back into the offense. Last year he was first in the NFL in opportunity share (95.2 percent, PlayerProfiler) and snaps (96.4 percent in 12 games played). He has the highest running back median and ceiling projections in our Models. For more on Bell, Johnson, and McCoy, see our Week 1 running back breakdown.
Julio Jones, Falcons
Of the top-tier receivers, Julio might have the best matchup as he faces a Bears defense that allowed the ninth-most fantasy PPG (39.4) to opposing wideouts last season and was 27th against No. 1 receivers in FO’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average. Jones has a top-two median projection and top-five ceiling projection among wide receivers.
Tier 4: Near-Elite Running Backs & Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper, Raiders
Cooper faces a Titans defense that last year allowed the most fantasy PPG (44.6) to opposing wide receivers and this year has four new starters in its secondary, which may lead to short-term struggles. The Raiders-Titans game has the second-highest total of Week 1 at 50.5 points, and Cooper has a top-eight projection in our Models.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
Baldwin is a nice play, especially if you stack him with Wilson. Baldwin scored at least 14.0 DraftKings points nine times in 2016. He gets a Packers defense that allowed the second-most DraftKings PPG (43.4) to receivers and ranked 28th in pss DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers. Baldwin is one the leaders in the slate with seven Pro Trends. For more on Baldwin, Cooper, and others, see our Week 1 wide receiver breakdown.
Tier 5: High-End Flexes
Jordan Howard, Bears
Howard’s production will be highly dependent on game script, but he’s facing a Falcons defense that gave up the fourth-most fantasy PPG (28.1) to running backs last year. The Bears will try to establish the run behind an offensive line that ranked eighth in the NFL with 4.48 adjusted line yards per carry (Football Outsiders). Howard has top-eight median and ceiling projections.
Todd Gurley, Rams
Gurley is coming off a terrible year in which he finished 70th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.59) and 75th in yards per touch (3.8). In Week 1, though, he could rebound. He faces a Colts defense that gave up the sixth-most DraftKings PPG (27.6) to running backs last year. As a 4,0-point home favorite, he should enjoy positive game script for much of the contest.
Tier 6: Mid-Tier Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
McCaffrey has by far the best matchup in the group. The 49ers gave up the most DraftKings PPG (33.7) to opposing running backs last year by a country mile. A collegiate stud, McCaffrey averaged 183.1 scrimmage yards per game as starter at Stanford and seems likely to have a big role immediately based on his preseason usage. He has a top-10 median projection in our Models.
Ty Montgomery, Packers
Montgomery will gobble up touches in the Packers backfield, but he has a tough Week 1 matchup. The Seahawks defense was third in rush DVOA last year, allowing the fourth-fewest DraftKings PPG (20.2) to running backs. Converting to running back from wide receiver in the middle of the season, Montgomery ended 2016 strong, averaging 83.2 scrimmage yards, 3.5 receptions, and 0.83 touchdowns on 15.3 opportunities in his final six games of the year (including playoffs). He could be a strong contrarian play that differentiates lineups in guaranteed prize pools.
Tier 7: Mid-Tier Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Fitzgerald has the top matchup of the week, as the Lions ranked dead last in pass DVOA against slot receivers last year and Fitz ran 63.5 percent of his routes there (PFF). Additionally, Fitz has 12 targets inside the 10-yard line in each of the last two years, good for top-five marks both years. He could be chalky because of his matchup, but he also might have less ownership than expected because of other wide receivers with good matchups in the tier, such as Michael Crabtree, Kelvin Benjamin, and Alshon Jeffery.
Jamison Crowder, Redskins
While the Eagles last year were second in pass DVOA overall and third in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, they struggled against secondary receivers, ranking 17th against No. 2 receivers and 18th against all other receivers. Although Crowder has only the 22nd-highest median projection, he has the 14th-highest ceiling projection among receivers on account of his ability to accumulate lots of short receptions and turn one of them into a touchdown.
Tier 8: Mid-Tier Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Pierre Garcon, 49ers
Garcon will see a ton of targets this season. The last time Garcon and Kyle Shanahan were together (2013), he was targeted an NFL-high 181 times, finishing with a 113-1,346-5 receiving line. Garcon is now the unquestioned No. 1 receiver for the 49ers, and Shanahan’s top receiver has led the league in targets three times (2009, 2013, 2015) and finished second once (2008). The Panthers allowed the seventh-most DraftKings PPG (39.7) to opposing receivers last year. Garcon sneakily has the sixth-highest ceiling projection among receivers. The only drawback is that in this tier of six (with Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker out) he could have elevated ownership.
Jimmy Graham, Seahawks
Between the two tight ends, Graham’s matchup looks better than Reed’s, as the Eagles allowed the second-fewest DraftKings PPG (6.8) to tight ends last year while the Packers ranked 13th in PPG (13.6). Although he hasn’t been as prolific as Reed over the last two seasons, Graham did finish 2016 seventh among tight ends in targets (95) and red zone target share (26.3 percent) and sixth in yards per target (9.7). Reed is projected for 1.5 more points in our Models, but he will also likely have a higher ownership rate. Graham topped 10.0 DraftKings points 11 times last year.
