The Defenses and Kickers Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL dashboard (out soon).
The wait is over. Week 1 is here, bringing us a 12-game main slate, as the Buccaneers-Dolphins game has been postponed to Week 11 due to Hurricane Irma. Monitor our NFL news feed for player and weather updates throughout the week. Defenses (and kickers on FanDuel) aren’t sexy, but it’s hard to win a guaranteed prize pool if you don’t get production from those positions. Here are some notable Week 1 defenses and kickers.
Stud Defenses
Buffalo Bills ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
S-A-C-K-S! SACKS! SACKS! SACKS!
The most expensive defense on DraftKings, the Bills have a great matchup against the Jets in Week 1. Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Bills are the biggest betting favorites of the opening weekend (-8.5), and the game also has the second-lowest point total (40.5), giving the Jets the slate’s lowest implied total (16.0). Per our Trends tool, FanDuel defenses have historically averaged a +1.42 Plus/Minus with a 53.4 percent Consistency Rating when opponents have had implied Vegas totals of 21 points or fewer.
Making his first start for the Jets, Josh McCown has started 22 games over the last three years and been sacked a whopping 77 times. Being with the Jets shouldn’t make him any less likely to be sacked. The Jets allowed 35 sacks last season and were 20th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.3 percent (Football Outsiders). On the whole, they allowed the most fantasy points to team defenses in 2016.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense finished eighth in the NFL last season with 39 sacks. The Bills are switching to a 4-3 defense under new coach Sean McDermott but return their top pass rushers in Lorenzo Alexander (12.5 sacks), Jerry Hughes (6.0), and Kyle Williams (5.0), with Alexander (79.1) rated by Pro Football Focus as the No. 36 edge defender and Williams (85.5) the No. 12 interior defender. The Bills are expensive on DraftKings, but they are cheaper on FanDuel with a slate-high 99 percent Bargain Rating and they have top-two ceiling projections in our Models. The Bills are the highest-rated defense in most of our Pro Models.
Houston Texans ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
The Texans open the season at home against Blake Bortles and the Jaguars, who last season gave up the seventh-most fantasy points to team defenses. In two 2016 games vs. the Jaguars, the Texans defense averaged 9.5 DraftKings points per game (PPG). Houston’s defense last year was especially tough at home, where it recorded 10 more sacks (23 to 13) and allowed 8.5 fewer PPG (16.3 to 24.8).
The Texans defense finished with 36 sacks in 2016, but for most of the season were without J.J. Watt, PFF’s N0. 1 player in 2014 and No. 5 in 2015. He’s joined in Houston’s front seven by Jadeveon Clowney (PFF’s No. 7 edge rusher) and Whitney Mercilus (PFF’s No. 8 edge rusher). That’s bad news for Bortles, who has been sacked 85 times and thrown 34 interceptions in his last 32 games.
The game has a slate-low 40-point total, and the Jaguars have the second-lowest implied total at 17.25 points. The Texans have a top-two ownership projection in our Models despite having the highest salary on FanDuel and second-highest salary on DraftKings.
Value Defenses
Atlanta Falcons ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
The Falcons defense faces Mike Glennon, who is making his first start since 2014 without Cameron Meredith and probably also Markus Wheaton. Chicago is down to the uninspiring duo of Kevin White and Kendall Wright as its top receivers. In Glennon’s last five starts with the Buccaneers in 2014, he threw six interceptions and was sacked 16 times. He’ll be going against a secondary that PFF ranked fifth entering the season.
Last season the Falcons had 39 sacks, and they’ve added to their defense this offseason with defensive tackle Dontari Poe and first-round defensive end Takk McKinley. The Falcons are third in the slate with a favorable 6.5-point spread and could spend most of the game in the beneficial spot of playing with a lead and rushing the quarterback without worrying much about the run.
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
The Bengals defense took a step back last season, but at least in Week 1 they get to face Joe Flacco, who missed most of the preseason with a back injury. Returning to practice on Sep. 2, Flacco is likely to be rusty and he’s not an accurate passer to begin with (61.5 percent career completion rate). In his two games against the Bengals last year, Flacco attempted 49 and 36 passes. He was sacked four times, throwing just one touchdown to two interceptions as the Bengals averaged +9.00 DraftKings PPG with a +2.59 Plus/Minus. The Bengals have some upside potential against the Ravens and are projected for less than two percent ownership.
Bargain Defense with Upside
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
The Eagles defense is one of the best bargains on the board. The Eagles averaged 8.9 DraftKings PPG last season, scoring at least 10 points eight times, the second-highest mark among defenses. Two of those times came against the Redskins, with the Eagles averaging 12.00 PPG and a +5.50 Plus/Minus.
The Redskins need to replace two 1,000-yard receivers in Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, and their offense sputtered in the preseason with Terrelle Pryor catching just two passes as the No. 1 receiver. Last year, the Eagles happened to be second against No. 1 receivers in FO’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average and also first against TEs. If the Eagles can shut down the Redskins’ top receiving weapons, they could have a big game defensively against quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Stud Kicker
Matt Bryant, Falcons ($4,900 FanDuel)
Bryant was the top fantasy kicker last season for an offense that racked up 540 points. He converted 34 of 37 field goal attempts (91.9 percent) and an NFL-best 56 extra points. The Falcons-Bears game has the slate’s third-highest total (48.5), and the Falcons have the second-highest implied total (27.5). Even at 41 years old, Bryant ranked fifth in the NFL with six field goals of 50-plus yards in 2016, scoring at least nine FanDuel points 14 times last year, when the Bears allowed the third-most fantasy points (9.0 PGG) to kickers.
Value Kicker
Matt Prater, Lions ($4,700 FanDuel)
Prater finished fifth in fantasy points last season, scoring eight-plus FanDuel points 13 times and ranking second with seven conversions beyond 50 yards. The Cardinals-Lions game has a respectable over/under of 48 and Prater will have perfect kicking conditions inside Ford Field.
Bargain Kicker with Upside
Greg Zuerlein, Rams ($4,500 FanDuel)
Greg the Leg is coming off a down season that saw him score just 80 points for a bad offense, finishing 28th in attempts (22). With the offensive-minded Sean McVay taking over for Jeff Fisher, Zuerlein should have more scoring opportunities this season: The Rams were last in the NFL with 224 points last year. Quarterback Jared Goff could get off to a fast start in Week 1 against a Colts defense that was 30th in yards allowed and 27th in passing yards last year, and that could result in extra attempts for Zuerlein. The Colts allowed the fourth-most points to kickers in 2016.
