NFL Week 7 features a 10-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson is coming off a rare down performance last week, finishing with just 13.78 DraftKings points. That wasn’t just his lowest mark of the season, and it was one of the worst marks of his career. The Ravens’ offense still put 34 points on the board, but each of their three running backs scored a rushing touchdown.
That makes him a prime bounce-back target in Week 7. Jackson had scored at least 20 DraftKings points in each of his previous five games, so he has one of the safest floors at quarterback.
He also owns some of the best projections in our NFL Models. He ranks second in Median Projection, first in Ceiling Projection, and first in projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Is this the week for Ryan Tannehill? I hope so. He’s been a disaster from a fantasy perspective this year, ranking as just the No. 19 quarterback through the first six weeks. He’s scored 18.82 DraftKings points in five of his first six games, but he does benefit from one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Chiefs. They rank just 31st in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, giving Tannehill an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.4. That’s the top mark on the slate.
Tannehill also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The total on this game sits at 57.5 points, which is the highest mark of the entire year. Historically, quarterbacks in games with comparable totals have posted an averaged Plus/Minus of +2.58, and that number increases to +3.22 for home quarterbacks (per the Trends tool). If Tannehill can’t get right in this spot, this could be a very forgettable season for him.
Quick Hits
Patrick Mahomes is in play every time he takes the field, so he’s clearly an option in a high-total game vs. the Titans. The Chiefs own the third-highest implied team total on the slate, and Mahomes’ $8,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Kyler Murray also owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on FanDuel, and he also benefits from an outstanding matchup this week. He’s taking on the Texans, and the Cardinals’ implied team total of 32.25 ranks second on the slate. The only real concern is the point spread. The Cardinals are currently favored by 17.5 points, and favorites of greater than two touchdowns have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +0.01 on FanDuel. That’s not particularly awe-inspiring.
If you’re looking to save a bit at the position, Billy Ward highlights Sam Darnold and Tua Tagovailoa as potential options in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Also, make sure to check out Ryan Hodge’s Quarterback Model Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
Derrick Henry has been one of the best running backs in the league for a while now, but he has taken his game to another level in 2021-22. He’s been absolutely dominant through the first six games, leading the league in carries, rushing yards, and touchdowns. He’s even displayed some improved upside as a receiver, and he’s just four catches away from setting a new career high. Overall, Henry is the No. 1 running back in fantasy given his average of 28.4 DraftKings points per game.
Henry obviously has massive appeal vs. the Chiefs. In addition to struggling vs. the pass, they also rank 31st in rush defense DVOA. He just shredded the No. 1 rush defense for 143 rushing yards and three touchdowns, so imagine what he can do against the Chiefs.
Henry is also one of the top values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Leonard Fournette isn’t exactly priced like a stud, but he could provide stud-like production. He has become the Buccaneers’ clear lead back this season, and he’s scored at least 16.8 DraftKings points in three straight games.
He’s dominating the high-value touches in particular. He’s posted an 11% target share – the fourth-highest mark on the team – and he’s also received the vast majority of the goal line touches. He’s had six carries from inside the five-yard line, and no one else on the team has more than one.
The Buccaneers also take the field as massive home favorites this week, which has historically led to success for running backs. The Bucs could be looking to kill the clock late, which means he could be looking at a few more carries than usual.
Quick Hits
If Fournette doesn’t tickle your fancy this week, there are plenty of other big favorites to consider at running back. Aaron Jones and the Packers are favored by 7.5, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings. Darrell Henderson and the Lions are favored by 16 points, and he owns a Bargain Rating of 96% on DraftKings. Both players are popping as elite options in our NFL Models, and they should garner heavy consideration in all formats.
Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, and he’s scored 14.7 FanDuel points in each contest. He draws an excellent matchup this week vs. the Eagles, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5 on DraftKings.
On the other side of that matchup, Miles Sanders has some buy-low appeal. The Raiders have been extremely generous to opposing running backs this season, giving Sanders an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.0 on FanDuel. Sanders’ salary has also plummeted to just $5,100 on FanDuel, which represents a decrease of -$1,000 over the past month.
Is Myles Gaskin an option in tournaments? Billy Ward makes the case in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Tyreek Hill is currently dealing with a hamstring injury, but he’s expected to suit up vs. the Titans. He was hampered by the injury last week as well, which limited him to just the third-most routes at the wide receiver position on the Chiefs. That’s obviously not good, but it didn’t affect him too much from a fantasy perspective. He led the team with 12 targets, and he responded with nine catches, 76 yards, and a touchdown. Hill has now seen at least 12 targets in three straight weeks, and he’s capable of turning any target into a long touchdown.
Pro Football Focus also gives Hill is massive advantage vs. the Titans secondary. He’s expected to see most of his snaps against slot corner Elijah Molden, who has allowed 0.33 fantasy points per route run this season. Overall, PFF ranks Hill vs. Molden as the fourth largest mismatch at the wide receiver position this week.
Hill is in play across the industry, but he’s a steal at just $8,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Values
Chris Godwin has been priced down to just $5,900 on DraftKings, and he’s very appealing at that price tag. The Buccaneers’ passing attack is going to be missing Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski this week, so Godwin and Mike Evans should do most of the heavy lifting. Godwin has averaged 3.67 additional fantasy points per game in six games without Godwin since the start of last season.
On the other side of that matchup, Darnell Mooney has some appeal at $4,600 on DraftKings. He’s displayed some chemistry with quarterback Justin Fields, and he leads the team with a 26% target market share this season. The Bears’ offense hasn’t provided a ton of fantasy value with Fields under center, but opposing quarterbacks have averaged a league-high 41.8 pass attempts per game when facing the Bucs this season. That gives Mooney and the rest of the passing attack a bit more upside than usual.
Quick Hits
Davante Adams has had two quiet games recently, which is very unlike him. That said, he’s in a prime bounce-back spot vs. the Football Team. PFF gives Adams a massive mismatch over their secondary, and he could carry a bit less ownership following a poor performance and with most DFS players focusing their attention on Hill.
The Giants’ offense is absolutely decimated for their matchup vs. the Panthers. Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Kadarius Toney have all been ruled out, while Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, and John Ross are questionable. That said, if Shepard is active, he could be looking at a massive workload. He saw 14 targets last week vs. the Rams, which makes him very intriguing for tournaments.
Terry McLaurin stands out as one of the top leverage plays at the position. He has one of the highest Ceiling Projections in our models, but he’s projected for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Packers’ secondary playing without Jaire Alexander, and the Football Team could be forced into a pass-heavy game script. I love his upside in this matchup.
If you need some additional value plays at the position, Mecole Hardman and Rashod Bateman both have appeal on this slate. Hardman has been a consistent contributor for the Chiefs this season, scoring at least 9.8 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, while Bateman garnered six targets in his NFL debut. Bateman also owns a Bargain Rating of 96% on DraftKings.
Billy Ward breaks down the rest of the position in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce remains the unquestioned king at the tight end position. In fact, his domination over the rest of the field is growing. He’s scored 108.8 PPR points this season, and Mark Andrews has scored 102.8. No one else at the position is within even 20 points than Kelce, and it’s only Week 7.
The craziest part is that Kelce hasn’t even been peak Kelce of late. He hasn’t gone over 100 yards in each of the past three weeks, and he’s scored just one touchdown over that time frame. In other words, he has room for improvement.
That said, Kelce will face one of his toughest matchups of the season this week. The Titans rank fourth in DVOA vs. opposing tight ends, and they’ve allowed the second-fewest yards per game to the position (24.4). However, Kelce still owns the largest advantage at the position per PFF, and he is essentially matchup-proof. There’s no reason to fear using Kelce in this matchup, especially given the expected high-scoring nature.
Value
Ricky Seals-Jones isn’t quite the same value on DraftKings that he was a few weeks ago, but he’s still firmly in play at $3,700. He’s done an admirable job filling in for Logan Thomas, racking up nine catches for 99 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks. Overall, he’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +4.16 in each contest, and he’s missed just one snap over that time frame. That makes him a very reasonable target vs. the Packers.
Quick Hits
The Eagles traded away Zach Ertz after last week’s contest, which opens the door for Dallas Goedert to take on a larger role moving forward. Ertz had a 15% target share through the first six weeks, and those targets have to go somewhere. Goedert is a logical bet to absorb a few of them, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.7 vs. the Raiders.
Could Darren Waller be a better stud target than Kelce on FanDuel? Billy Ward explores in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Tyler Higbee is one of the top leverage options at the position this week. He remains extremely involved in the Rams’ passing attack, and he played every snap last week vs. the Giants. He’s projected for just 3.6% ownership on DraftKings, so he’s an interesting contrarian option for tournaments.
Roster Construction
The big question in cash games this week is how you want to approach the running back position. If you pay up for Henry, you’re going to hamper your ability to build a balanced roster. If you don’t pay up for Henry, you’re fading arguably the most dangerous player in fantasy in a dream matchup.
It’s a tougher question than you might think. Henry looks like a smash play, but there are plenty of other running backs who grade out as excellent values at cheaper price tags. Henderson, Jones, Fournette, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Darrell Williams all seem like viable cash game options on DraftKings.
Still, I’m probably opting to pay up for the safety of Henry.
After that, the next question is what to do at tight end? If you pair Henry with Kelce, you’re basically going to have to go with value options at all three receiver spots. You might be able to get away with that, but it makes me feel a little uneasy. I’d rather go with someone like Goedert or Seals-Jones so I can have a bit of stability in my receiving corps.
Speaking of receiver, guys like Mooney, Hunter Renfroe, Hardman, and Bateman all grade out as strong value options this week. Godwin is probably the most expensive option I’ll consider in cash this week to make sure I have viable running backs and Jackson at quarterback.
As usual, things are a bit easier on FanDuel. One nice addition is that Devontae Booker becomes a viable value option at running back at $5,800. He’s a nice source of savings at a position that is otherwise pretty expensive this week.
I’m also more comfortable not using Henry on FanDuel. He’s priced at $11,000, and it’s really hard to justify pay that much for one player. Maybe he goes for 200 yards and three touchdowns and buries me, but even something like 100 yards and two TDs doesn’t kill us at this price tag.
That allows us to use a few pricier pass catchers than we did on DraftKings, and I would make the case for Adams and Waller as the top options.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do Ownership Projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
