The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
And then there were eight teams remaining after a very ‘Wild’ Card weekend. Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for the NFL Divisional Round. We’ll look at the four-game Saturday through Sunday Main Slate for the Model.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Fully rested after securing the number one seed in the AFC, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes currently projects for the highest ceiling on the week in what looks to be an ideal matchup for the elite quarterback, facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank 26th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
Mahomes continues to be the gold standard at quarterback, putting up an elite 308.8 passing yards per game average, with a 67% completion percentage and a league-leading 41 touchdowns. The Chiefs are an 8.5-point home favorite in a matchup with a 53-point total, the highest on the slate. This season, the Chiefs have been one of the more pass-friendly offenses in the league, using a pass-to-run play-calling ratio of 63%/37 (per RotoViz), calling a play on average at lighting-fast 26.5 seconds.
Look for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ receiving corps, namely Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster, to be the main contributors against the weak Jaguars’ defense. In a Week 18 win against the Las Vegas Raiders, Mahomes threw for 202 yards on 26 attempts with one touchdown. In a matchup with plenty of shootout potential, the elite passing ability of Mahomes, combined with elite weapons in the receiving corps, makes him a prime candidate to reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Mahomes appears in matchups above a 53-point total, he averages 27.40 actual DraftKings points, with a +4.01 Plus/Minus and a 58.1% consistency rating. Spending up for the most expensive quarterback for a massive floor might benefit roster construction this week.
Top Value: Daniel Jones at Philadelphia Eagles – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones projects as a top value option on DraftKings, squaring off against his NFC East rival in the Philadelphia Eagles, a defense ranked sixth in DVOA.
After the 31-24 upset victory over the Minnesota Vikings, Jones looks to have another difficult task, facing a stout Eagles defense. In a 48-22 loss to the Eagles in Week 14, Jones threw for 169 yards on 27 attempts and one touchdown and will likely face a similar outcome against an Eagles defense rested after securing the number one seed in the NFC.
According to PFF, the Eagles rank third in overall defense, which looks to be a terrible matchup. With a pass-skewed ratio (57%/43% pass-to-run), Jones discounted price tag makes him a fantasy-relevant option, especially if he can produce similar numbers to the Wild Card win, throwing for 301 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings.
Look for plenty of stacking options, with Darius Slayton, Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins, and even Saquon Barkley on the Giants’ offense and Eagles’ skill players in AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Miles Sanders all as viable bring-backs, with plenty of salary available for higher-priced skill position players.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Christian McCaffrey vs. Dallas Cowboys – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a tough Dallas Cowboys defense ranking fifth in rush DVOA.
An elite option at running back, McCaffrey is an integral part of the 49ers’ offense, with 31.5% of the workload in the backfield, also averaging 14.5 carries per game, 4.69 yards per attempt, and 5.9 targets per game, for 8.9 yards per reception. Also, like Barkley, McCaffrey is constantly in the conversation for the 100-yard rushing bonus and has tremendous touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in six games since joining the 49ers in Week 7.
In the 41-23 Wild Card win over the Seattle Seahawks, McCaffrey rushed for 119 yards on 15 attempts, also catching two passes for 17 yards and one touchdown. Despite the more difficult matchup, the 49ers are a 3.5-point home favorite against a Cowboys team coming off a Monday night victory against the Buccaneers. Should the 49ers lead toward the end of the game, expect additional carries and volume for McCaffrey, further adding to his upside.
Top Value: Travis Etienne Jr. at Kansas City Chiefs – $6,400 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. projects as a top value in a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank 15 in rushing DVOA, a more ideal matchup in a game with the highest total.
The second-year running back has taken over lead rushing duties for the Jaguars, responsible for 49.1% of the workload in the backfield, and has seen a steady increase in volume, especially after the departure of James Robinson. This season, Etienne has averaged 12.9 rushing attempts per game and 5.11 yards per carry.
In the come-from-behind 31-30 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round, Etienne was an essential factor in the Jaguars’ offense, rushing 20 times for 109 yards and one touchdown. With guaranteed volume, look for Etienne to be a salary relief option, also considered as a bring-back option in Mahomes-led stacks.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase at Buffalo Bills – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Cincinnati Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers for Divisional Round, facing a tough Buffalo Bills defense ranked sixth in pass DVOA in what may be one of the more anticipated matchups of the season.
One of the elite receiving options in the league, Chase is responsible for a 30% target share and is the preferred option for Joe Burrow, averaging 11.2 targets per game and 12 yards per reception. Further, look for Chase to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in four of the Bengals’ 18 games this season, and also recording a touchdown in eight games. In a Sunday Night 24-17 win over the Baltimore Ravens, Chase was targeted 12 times, catching nine passes for 84 yards and one touchdown. Despite the more difficult matchup on paper, Look for Chase to be a dominant producer in a matchup with a 48.5-point total, signaling shootout potential.
Aside from the volume, Chase is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 24 red zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds. Chase’s volume and touchdown upside consistently make him a prime candidate to have the slate-breaking ability and reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
With THE BLITZ, Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs projects for the highest ceiling on the other side of the Bills-Bengals matchup. Priced $100 less than Chase, Diggs faces a Bengals defense ranked 12th in pass DVOA, which should look similar to the Bengals star.
Like Chase, Diggs is an elite option at wide receiver and the preferred target for Josh Allen, seeing 27% of the target share in the Bills’ receiving corps, averaging 9.6 targets per game and 13.2 yards per reception, not to mention the 100-receiving yard bonus and touchdown upside. Be sure to take a second look at Diggs to potentially reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Zay Jones at Kansas City Chiefs – $4,700 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Zay Jones again projects as a top value option this week in a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank 20th in pass DVOA.
This season, Jones is second on the Jaguars’ receiving corps, responsible for 23% of the target share, averaging 7.6 targets per game and 10 yards per reception.
Since Week 8, Jones has seen at least four targets per game, reaching the 100-receiving yard mark in two games. While the touchdown upside may not be there, Jones makes up for it in volume, adding to his fantasy relevance. During the upset victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, Jones was targeted 13 times, only behind Christian Kirk, catching eight passes for 74 yards and one touchdown.
If the passing volume should continue for Jones, his digestible salary on DraftKings makes him an easy pick to open up pathways to higher-priced skill-position players. He can even serve as a cheap bring-back in Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs stacks, with a likely pairing being tight end Travis Kelce.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce returns to the main slate, projecting for the highest ceiling among tight ends on the slate in a matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank 26th in pass DOVA–a prime matchup against an almost unfadeable skill position player.
Kelce continues to dominate, averaging 8.9 targets per game with 12.2 yards per reception and 12 touchdowns. Also responsible for a team-leading 24% target share as part of the hyper-effective Chiefs receiving corps. In the Week 18 31-13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, Kelce was targeted seven times, catching six passes for 38 yards. However, most of his production is in the red zone, where he has a league-leading 30 red zone targets, making him a prime candidate for tremendous touchdown upside.
Despite the almost absurd price tag on DraftKings, Kelce may be a given, especially facing a weak Jaguars defense and in a matchup with a high total.
Top Value: Evan Engram at Kansas City Chiefs – $4,300 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Evan Engram projects as a top value at tight end given his discounted salary on DraftKings and likely volume from quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The veteran tight end, in his first year with the Jacksonville Jaguars, has a modest 18% target share, which is third in the Jaguars’ receiving corps, averaging 5.8 targets per game and 10.5 yards per reception.
In the Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers, Engram led the receiving corps in production with 11 targets, catching seven passes for 93 yards and one touchdown. Should the likely volume continue, especially in a high-total matchup, look for Engram to be a viable fantasy option in a position usually dominated by one individual.
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