The NFL Divisional Playoffs Dashboard
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Seahawks at Falcons
The Seahawks will travel to Atlanta to take on the NFC’s No. 2 seed in the Falcons. This game has a massive Vegas total of 51.5 points — right behind the slate-high total of 52.5 in the Packers-Cowboys game — and the Falcons are currently five-point favorites. The Seahawks are implied for 23.25 points; the Falcons, 28.25.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
Wilson has been an average DFS asset this year with a +0.08 FanDuel Plus/Minus, but the journey has been quite a roller coaster:
Wilson’s best game of the year came in Week 16, when he put up 33.6 FD points and a 29-350-4 line on a Cardinals defense that finished third in Football Outsiders’ Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). That performance highlights an odd trend of Wilson’s this season: He’s been at his best against good defenses and not as good against bad ones. Per RotoViz:
This production pattern is apparent in our Trends tool:
The good/bad news is that Wilson is facing a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA and has been a bottom-10 unit versus opposing QBs this season, allowing 19.2 DraftKings points and a +1.96 Plus/Minus.
Still, Wilson has higher median projections than Tom Brady and Dak Prescott despite having lower ownership projections.
RB – Thomas Rawls
Last week, I was down on Rawls because of his inconsistent play and time share with Alex Collins. This was the Seattle rushing market share breakdown heading into the wild card weekend:
Then last week, Rawls got 27 carries to Collins’ six and turned those into 26.2 DK points, 161 yards, and a touchdown. He averaged six yards per attempt behind a poor Seattle line, which seems like a complete outlier because the Lions defense finished the season dead last in total DVOA and 23rd against the rush, but it may not be. Atlanta ranks 29th against the rush this season and has been the fourth-worst team against opposing featured RBs:
With last week’s performance and this week’s matchup, Rawls is intriguing in guaranteed prize pools despite being a dog. He’s a better value on FD, where his $7,500 salary comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for nine to 12 percent ownership, which is significantly lower than that of the similarly priced LeGarrette Blount and Devonta Freeman.
RB – Alex Collins
Collins was relevant when he and Rawls were splitting carries, but he got only six carries and one target last week in a 26-6 blowout win over the Lions.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Baldwin has recently dominated the targets in this offense: He had 12 targets (a 40 percent market share) last week, catching 11 of them for 104 yards and a TD. He owns a whopping 30.37 percent of the Seahawks’ targets over the past four games (per the Market Share Report):
Like his QB, Baldwin has negligible favorite/dog splits over the past couple of years . . .
. . . although notice the count: Since Wilson and Baldwin have been together, they’ve rarely been dogs. Per our Matchups tool, Baldwin has a tough one-on-one matchup against Falcons slot cornerback Brian Poole, who ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 29th CB on the year with an 80.9 coverage grade. Still, Baldwin has the second-highest target share among remaining pass-catchers and is priced at only $7,900 FD, where he has seven Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Paul Richardson
Over the last three weeks, Richardson has been a vital part of the Seahawks offense, scoring two touchdowns on a combined 16 targets. He’s been first or second on the team in target share over the last two weeks while playing in the place of the injured Tyler Lockett. He’s a top-six WR in three of our four Pro Models for FD, where his near-minimum $4,700 price tag comes with a +3.45 Projected Plus/Minus and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Kearse is second on the team with 15.56 percent of the targets over the last four games, but his market share has been declining with Richardson’s emergence: He had only three targets last week and 14 total yards. He’s not a recommended fantasy option this week, as most of his routes on the outside will be run against CBs Robert Alford and Jalen Collins, who have solid PFF coverage grades of 78.7 and 83.7.
TE – Jimmy Graham
Graham was chalky last week because the position was weak in the slate and he had a good matchup against a Detroit team that was 29th in pass DVOA against TEs. With Travis Kelce, Jared Cook (who got nine targets last week), and even notorious dad runner Jason Witten in this slate, we can take Graham for what he is right now: A guy hardly involved in his offense. He has only 11.85 percent of his team’s targets over the last four games. Last week he turned his four targets into a pedestrian 3-37-0 line. He’s only $300 cheaper than Kelce, who dominated the league’s best defense just two games ago, putting up an 11-160-1 line against the Broncos. Of course, Graham is projected at low 13-16 percent ownership — compared to 31-40 percent for Kelce — but that’s a fair distribution at this point.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
After throwing for 300-plus passing yards and three scores in their earlier Week 6 matchup on the road in Seattle, Ryan and this passing offense should have little worry playing the Seahawks. Ryan has had easily the best season of his career and enters the postseason red-hot, throwing for multiple touchdowns in his last four games and averaging 22.6 FD points over that span. The significance of the injury to Seahawks free safety Earl Thomas cannot be understated. His absence opens up the deep middle of the field, an area where Ryan has excelled this season:
Since Thomas’ injury, the Seahawks have allowed the third-most pass plays of 20-plus yards. Even though the Seahawks enter the game with a -2.6 FD Opponent Plus/Minus, Ryan has the highest floor and ceiling projections at the position.
RB – Devonta Freeman
Freeman had 15 touches for 50 total yards the last time these two teams met. Outside of Week 1 against the Raiders, it was the only time Freeman had at least 15 touches and failed to score double-digit DK points. Seattle has been tough on the road against opposing rushing attacks, allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (91.4) with just two 100-yard rushers. However, Atlanta’s high implied total bodes well for Freeman, as the Falcons lead the league in red-zone opportunities per game (13.9) and Freeman leads the team in red-zone touches (43.05 percent). With his consistent volume, Freeman’s a strong value play at just $5,900 DK considering he leads all RBs in Pro Trends.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Coleman also struggled to find running room against Seattle in their previous matchup, finishing with a season-low 2.2 FD points. However, he hasn’t been that far behind Freeman when it comes to rushing opportunities lately:
Playing as a home favorite with a high total, Coleman is in play in GPPs. He may be best utilized in FD tournaments given his 82 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Julio Jones
Julio found success in his previous matchup with Seattle (7-139-1), but most of his big plays and yardage came when offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was able to scheme him away from CB Richard Sherman. Julio runs over 70 percent of his routes on the outside and will likely see plenty of Sherman once again. Opposing QBs have typically avoided Sherman’s side of the field, with Sherman being targeted on just 15 percent of his routes in coverage. Julio on the other hand is being targeted on 28 percent of his routes and has the physical ability to turn any reception into a score. He’ll likely see some of each Seattle CB if Shanahan is able to move Julio around in creative ways.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Running 59 percent of his routes from the slot, Sanu draws arguably the best matchup on paper against Jeremy Lane, who finished the 2016 season as PFF’s 103rd CB after allowing 0.34 fantasy points per route. Still, Sanu is difficult to trust in cash games, as he hasn’t exceeded five targets in a game since Thanksgiving. He does offer a 16.1-point ceiling on FD that could be worth chasing in tournaments, as he’s $100 cheaper than teammate Taylor Gabriel. With a FantasyLabs projected ownership of five to eight percent, he could be a low-owned way to gain exposure to this offense.
WR – Taylor Gabriel
Gabriel isn’t a reliable producer, but he does have seven TDs in his last eight games. He runs 48 percent of his routes from the right side of the formation, which should put him primarily in Sherman’s coverage if Seattle doesn’t use him to shadow Julio. If Seattle focuses on stopping Julio, Gabriel might find the opportunity to capitalize on a big play, as he leads the team in touchdowns of 20-plus yards.
WR – Aldrick Robinson
With the other Falcons WRs healthy, Robinson is a risky option who’s not expected to see many snaps. He has a zero-point floor on DK.
TE – Austin Hooper
Hooper has amassed multiple receptions in just one of his last five games. He has scored in just two of his last ten. Seattle is 19th in pass DVOA against opposing TEs, but they have allowed just three touchdowns to the position all season. One of those happened to be to Levine Toilolo in Week 6 — but Hooper might not be even as good as Toilolo. The rookie has a 5.5-point median projection on DK and looks to be a TD-or-bust option.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
