As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
One of the heavy hitters in DFS took down the Week 9 Millionaire Maker. Former RotoGrinders No. 1-ranked DFS player Youdacao — now ranked No. 4 — took down the million-dollar first prize with one of his 150 lineups. We’ll look at this lineup specifically but focus more on his overall portfolio to see how the top players build 150 lineups.
The Lineup
The Stack
Youdacao used a rare triple stack to take first place, pairing C.J. Stroud of the Texans with three of his pass catchers. He used Stroud on just 5.3% of his lineups, a bit below the 6.9% ownership the field had toward Stroud. However, based on the ownership of the Texans pass catchers, I’d speculate youdacao was well above the field in terms of this specific stack.
Of course, binking a tournament with your fifth-most utilized quarterback is one of the nice things about being able to afford 150 lineups. He may not have gotten to Stroud if playing three-max or 20-max contests — and certainly wouldn’t have had much of this specific stack.
It’s rare to see three separate pass catchers from a team appear in a winning lineup since they, by definition, are fighting over a fixed number of targets. However, with a combined salary of just over $12,000, you wouldn’t necessarily need all of them to go off to be a solid group collectively especially, including the tight end Dalton Schultz, in what was projecting as a weak slate for the position.
He brought it all back with Tampa running back Rachaad White, who also had a strong day. We’ve discussed extensively the correlation between opposing running backs and wide receivers. They both benefit from the same game script, where the running back’s team is protecting a lead. Obviously, that concept extends to stacks as well as one-off plays and is worth keeping in mind between building lineups.
Other Correlations
Outside of the main stack and bringback, there weren’t any correlated plays in this lineup. The stack accounted for five of the nine pieces (counting White), so there wasn’t much room left for one. Youdacao did correlate some lineups at other spots, but it’s not necessary when building so heavily around a single game.
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The Chalk
Josh Jacobs was in over 40% of youdacao’s lineups, including the winner. That was well above the field’s exposure, which saw Jacobs as the fourth-most owned running back at just under 18%. Jacobs was projecting exceptionally well heading into the week and got a huge boost when the Giants had to turn to their third-string quarterback, as the game environment worked out perfectly for the Raiders rushing attack.
The lone miss in this lineup was Bijan Robinson, who continues to be criminally underused by the Falcons. Robinson was his third-most used back, and he doubled the field’s 15.7% exposure at 31.4%. Even in massive contests like this, you can generally get away with one miss and still take down tournaments.
The most owned player in this lineup was CeeDee Lamb, who appeared in more than a third of the field’s lineup. Getting some exposure to the Cowboys-Eagles game — which had the highest total on the slate — was a near-necessity in Week 9. There were a few viable options, of course. Youdacao had Lamb, AJ Brown, and Tony Pollard each in around 30% of lineups. Having Lamb over Brown in this one was crucial, as the gap between first and second place was just smaller than the gap between Lamb and Brown.
That’s another benefit of entering so many lineups. Smaller entry players may land on similar lineups but not have enough shots to mix and match the final, contest-winning piece.
The Sleepers
At 11.5%, Cleveland was the second-most popular defense on the week. However, the first most popular was the Giants, at nearly triple the ownership. Not only did this lineup from youdacao fade the heavy chalk, but it also built in leverage against the popular defense via Josh Jacobs.
Thus, when Jacobs scored, youdacao got the points, and the 30%+ of the field using the Giants lost points. That’s a sneaky correlation play and should be on players’ minds when fading the week’s chalky defense.
Cleveland was obviously a strong play against the Cardinals and Clayton Tune. The 23 points scored were beyond even the most optimistic projections, but the play made sense. They likely would’ve been far more popular had they not been so expensive. That’s especially valuable at a position where the field prefers to go cheap.
