NFL DFS Week 9 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Keep Rolling With DeAndre Hopkins

NFL Week 9 features a 10-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

Josh Allen is having one of the best fantasy seasons in the history of the quarterback position. He’s averaged 28.07 PPR points per game, which puts him just behind Lamar Jackson’s mark of 28.11 back in 2019. No QB has racked up more fantasy points per game than Jackson since 2010, so Allen is having a special season.

He combines the best aspects of the rest of the top fantasy quarterbacks. He can run like Lamar, throw like Patrick Mahomes, and score touchdowns like Jalen Hurts. There’s simply nothing that he can’t do on a football field.

None of the other top QBs are in action on the Week 9 main slate, so the gap between Allen and the rest of the position is massive. His median projection is nearly 5.5 points higher than every other signal caller in THE BLITZ, and his ceiling projection is nearly eight points higher. The question isn’t whether or not he’s a good play, but rather whether or not you can afford him. His combination of safety and upside is extremely appealing in all formats, so I’m paying up for him wherever possible. There’s enough value on this slate that it shouldn’t be impossible.

Value

If you aren’t paying up for Allen, Geno Smith stands out as the top value at the position on DraftKings. He leads all passers in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s had an incredibly efficient season. He trails only Allen in terms of Pro Football Focus grade at the position, and he ranks first in completion percentage and sixth in adjusted yards per attempt.

Smith draws a solid matchup this week vs. the Cardinals. The total on that game sits at 49.0 points, which ranks third on the slate. It trails the top games by just 0.5 points, so it’s a very minimal drop off. The Cardinals also rank just 23rd in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Smith owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.9. His fantasy production has been down a bit of late, but this is a great spot for him to bounce back.

Quick Hits

Marcus Mariota is another viable cheap option. He owns a solid matchup vs. the Chargers, who will be without stud pass-rusher Joey Bosa. That makes them a much less formidable opponent, and they’ve been pretty mediocre defensively to begin with. Mariota has scored at least 24.16 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he could definitely make it three of four in this spot.

Justin Fields is turning to his legs more of late, which is great news for the Bears and fantasy owners. He’s averaged over 73 rushing yards per game in his past three outings, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. His $5,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, making him one of the best pure values at the position as well.

Could this be the week to buy low on Aaron Rodgers? He certainly has the matchup to consider it, with the Lions ranking dead last in defensive DVOA. His price tag has also dipped to just $7,000 on FanDuel, which is basically unheard of for him. If he can’t smash in this spot, we can probably just cross him off for the rest of the season.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

As usual, the running back position is jam-packed with quality values in Week 9. However, Austin Ekeler deserves heavy consideration in the stud tier. He’s been tremendous recently for fantasy owners, scoring at least 24.3 DraftKings points in four straight games. He’s also racked up at least 34.9 DraftKings points in three of them, so he provides an elite ceiling at the position.

Most of Ekeler’s value has come as a pass-catcher. He’s been targeted on at least 21% of his routes in each of the past four weeks, and he’s led the team in targets in back-to-back contests. He has 28 targets over the past two weeks, and he’s racked up 22 catches in those contests. With the team now down Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at receiver, there’s no reason to expect anything different against the Falcons.

The Falcons have also been one of the best matchups for fantasy this season, ranking 31st in defensive DVOA. They’ve been poor against the run and the pass, so there are multiple avenues for Ekeler to return value in this spot. He’s finished as the No. 1 running back in fantasy in three of the past four weeks, and it should shock no one if he does it again.

Value

Nothing has been able to stop Rhamondre Stevenson of late. He’s racked up at least 20.1 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. He can dominate as a runner – he’s had games with 100+ rushing yards and games with multiple rushing scores – and he’s also extremely involved as a pass-catcher in the Pats’ backfield. He has at least eight targets in back-to-back weeks, and he’s played in the vast majority of passing situations this season.

Damien Harris did return last week and cut into Stevenson’s workload, siphoning off 34% of the rushing attempts. However, Harris is currently listed as questionable with an illness, and he was able to get in just one limited practice this week.

Stevenson would become a slam-dunk value if he’s ruled out, but he stands out as a strong option regardless. He leads the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus in THE BLITZ by a fairly wide margin.

Quick Hits

Deon Jackson stands out as the top value option at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. The Colts are going to be without Jonathan Taylor, while Nyheim Hines was traded to the Bills. Jackson was highly involved in the last game without both players, racking up 23.1 FanDuel points thanks to 12 carries and 10 targets.

Travis Etienne has officially taken over in the Jaguars backfield. He has at least 114 rushing yards and a score in back-to-back games, and he’s in an excellent spot this week vs. the Raiders. They rank just 29th in defensive DVOA, and his $6,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Aaron Jones has been the clear focal point of the Packers’ offense, and he stands out as an outstanding value at just $7,800 on FanDuel. He should see plenty of opportunities against the Lions’ subpar defense, and he racked up 20 carries and five targets last week despite trailing for most of the game.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

DeAndre Hopkins has wasted little time making an impact in his return to the lineup. He’s played in just two games, but that hasn’t stopped him from racking up 27 targets, 22 catches, 262 receiving yards, and one touchdown. He’s coming off 36.9 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he leads the league in both target share (37.5%) and air yards share (57.9%).

He draws an exploitable matchup this week vs. the Seahawks. Not only is the 49.5-point total tied for the top mark on the slate, but the Seahawks’ defense has struggled against top receivers. They’re 14th in pass defense DVOA overall, but they rank just 26th against No. 1 wideouts.

The best part? Hopkins isn’t expected to be overly chalky this week. He’s currently projected for approximately 17% ownership in THE BLITZ, putting him behind Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. Both of those players are excellent options in their own right, but for my money, Hopkins is the best play at the position.

Value

Drake London has been priced down to $4,900 on DraftKings, which is his lowest mark of the season. His reduced salary is deserved – he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games – but it feels like his salary has dipped a bit too far. The Falcons aren’t a pass-heavy offense, but London leads the team with a 28.5% target market share. He ranks second on the team in air yards, trailing only Kyle Pitts.

It’s rare to get a player with such a large target share at such a cheap salary, especially in what’s expected to be one of the best games of the week. The total in this contest sits at just 49.5 points, which is tied for the top mark on the slate. Ultimately, it’s a great spot to buy low on a talented player.

Quick Hits

Amon-Ra St. Brown returned to the lineup on a full-time basis last week, and he finished with 10 targets, seven catches, and 69 yards. He’s been the clear focal point of the Lions’ offense when healthy, garnering at least nine targets in each of his past four full games. His has decreased by -$1,000 over the past month on DraftKings, so this is another outstanding buy-low opportunity.

The Chargers are going to be without Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this week, opening up plenty of opportunities for the rest of their receivers. Josh Palmer figures to serve as their top option, but DeAndre Carter is slightly cheaper. Both players have appeal against a Falcons’ squad that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA.

Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are priced in the same vicinity every week, and they stand out as strong options on basically every slate. This week’s matchup vs. the Cardinals is no exception. Lockett is a slightly better value on DraftKings, while Metcalf has a superior Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Chris Godwin continues to rack up tons of targets, garnering at least 11 in three straight weeks. He’s yet to parlay that into much fantasy success, but that could change at any time. He’s one of the best options at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. I don’t think Al Pacino was talking about Kyle Pitts in The Godfather, but he might as well have been. No tight end in history has entered the league with more hype than Pitts, who checked every box as a prospect. He was an elite athlete with excellent college production, and he was selected with the No. 4 pick in the draft. He had a solid rookie season, but it still felt like a disappointment given his massive expectations. Many hoped Pitts would make a big jump in Year 2, but the start of the new season looked a lot like the last one.

However, just when everyone had given up on Pitts, he put together his best game of the year. He racked up a season-high nine targets last week vs. the Panthers, and he responded with five catches, 80 yards, and a touchdown. Was that a breakout or just a one-week fluke? That remains to be seen, but Pitts owns the top DraftKings ceiling projection at the position in THE BLITZ. He’s priced at just $4,500, making him the fifth-priciest option at tight end, which is a nice combination.

Value

Evan Engram has been a reliable source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s had at least six targets in each of those contests, and he’s averaged just under five catches and 60 yards in that stretch. That gives Engram a solid floor at just $3,300, and he has a bit of upside if he can find the end zone. Engram also has a fantastic matchup this week vs. the Raiders, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.4. That trails only the Seahawks’ tight ends at the position.

Quick Hits

Brock Wright is expected to take over as the Lions’ starting tight end following the trade of T.J. Hockenson. He’s currently in the concussion protocol, but he was able to get in a full practice on Friday. As long as he’s in the lineup, he’s an interesting punt play at the absolute minimum. Punting the TE position is always a viable strategy, and he owns the top projected Plus/Minus at tight end in THE BLITZ.

Tyler Higbee is coming off back-to-back disappointing performances, but he did have six targets in his last outing. He still ranks third at the position in expected DraftKings points per game per PFF, trailing only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.

Robert Tonyan is arguably the best option at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%. He’s been on the field much more in recent weeks, and he’s one of the only pass-catchers in Green Bay that Rodgers actually trusts.

Roster Construction

Balanced roster builds have been the theme of the season, and you can build a really strong balanced lineup this week. The current DraftKings optimal using THE BLITZ features no player priced above $6,600, and it’s hard to argue against it too much.

However, I’m going to be making a few tweaks to my cash lineup. First, I’m going to pivot down from Pitts to Wright at tight end. As long as he’s in the lineup, it’s hard to pass up that kind of value at what is easily the most volatile position in fantasy. Pitts is coming off a good week, but he’s disappointed fantasy owners more times than we can count. Going with the cheapest option possible at tight end makes a lot of sense.

That allows us to get up from Geno to Allen at quarterback. Unlike tight end, locking in a stud like Allen gives us a ton of safety at the position, and it also represents a sizable upgrade in ceiling. Only three QBs have a ceiling projection above 30 DraftKings points in THE BLITZ, and Allen has cracked 30 five times in seven games.

I’m also prioritizing Hopkins at receiver. I think he’s simply too cheap at $7,900 given the massive target share he’s posted in his first two games. THE BLITZ prefers St. Brown and Godwin from a points-per-dollar perspective, but it’s too hard for me to pass up on Hopkins.

Making those changes means we have to use Jackson as one of our three running backs, and I’m perfectly fine with that sacrifice. We also have to go a bit cheaper at defense, which is also always acceptable.

On FanDuel, using the extra salary to pay up for Allen is a must at quarterback. You also don’t need to use Wright at tight end, with guys like Tonyan or Gerald Everett standing out as the top options.

There isn’t quite as much value available at running back, making Jackson a virtual must-play at $5,000. Fortunately, there are some strong values to consider at receiver – namely London and Curtis Samuel – which allows you to still get to guys like Ekeler, Stevenson, or Joe Mixon with your remaining running back spots.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!