The NFL reaches the halfway point in the 18-week regular season this Sunday, and DraftKings offers another juicy slate to celebrate this Sunday with 12 games kicking off on Sunday afternoon to start November with a bang. For the second straight week, an onslaught of eight games kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET to get the party started. Four games fill in the later window, including some of the biggest divisional matchups of the day.
The Lions and Packers meet in a key game for the NFC North while the Rams and Seahawks face off out West. Those are two of the five divisional games on the main slate. The highest over/under of the week is from the Cowboys visiting the Falcons in the early window, while the Bills have the highest implied team total as they host the Dolphins in an AFC East matchup. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 9. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Geno Smith ($5,800) Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (48.5 total)
Geno Smith and the Seahawks have dropped four of their last five games after a 3-0 start to the season. They’re 4-4 and just one game ahead of the Rams, who are 3-5 after getting their receivers back and knocking off the Vikings last Thursday. Smith and the Seahawks will look to bounce back in this home game, and the QB has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and THE BLITZ.
Last week’s loss against the Bills was the first game of the season in which Smith wasn’t able to throw a touchdown pass and it resulted in a season-low 9.08 DraftKings points. Prior to that, he had posted at least 17 DraftKings points in six of his seven games with a high point of 25.6 DraftKings points in Week 4’s loss to the Lions.
This should be a good bounce-back spot for Geno. The Rams rank in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to QBs this season but have given up multiple passing touchdowns in four of their last six games.
One key to getting the Seahawks passing game back in gear will be the return of DK Metcalf ($6,500; knee). Coach Mike Macdonald said that it’s “looking optimistic” that Metcalf will be able to return, which will hopefully open up the passing game like it was earlier in the season.
If Metcalf is back and this game gets high-scoring, Smith should get plenty of pass attempts and be ready to return solid value. He had been one of the most consistent value QBs prior to Metcalf’s injury, and the Seahawks need him to get back on track quickly as they try to hang in the playoff race.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Chris Olave ($6,100) New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers (43.5 total)
Playing whoever is matched up against the Panthers has been a pretty good strategy so far this season, and the defense and offense have both struggled badly. They have been a great matchup across the board and have allowed nine wide receiver touchdowns and an average of over 150 yards per game to the position.
This matchup with Carolina comes at a perfect time for Olave, who looks like he’ll get Derek Carr ($5,600) back at QB after a three-week absence. With that convergence of circumstances, Olave has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projections. He is also tied for the most Pro Trends at the position with several other more expensive options.
While Carr was out, Olave left Week 6 early and missed Week 7 with a concussion, but he was back in Week 8. He did leave the game for another concussion check but was cleared and able to return. He clearly operated as the team’s top target in the passing game and hauled in 8-of-14 targets for 107 yards and 21.7 DraftKings points.
The former Buckeye star receiver had a few big games early this season with Carr at the controls, but Carr did a good job spreading the ball around, including some big hookups with Rashid Shaheed (knee), who is now out for the year. With Olave dominating more of the target share, he should be able to return great value against the Panthers this week whether Carr returns or Spencer Rattler ($5,100) gets another start. The ceiling of the whole offense is much higher, though, if Carr returns.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
James Conner ($6,600) Arizona Cardinals (-1) at Chicago Bears (44.5 total)
In that matchup with the Panthers discussed above, Alvin Kamara ($7,800) has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate projections, but right behind him at a lower salary is James Conner of the Cardinals. It’s rare to get a running back with such a consistently big workload at under $7,000, so including Conner in your lineups gives them a high floor along with a good ceiling.
Conner has had at least 18 carries in five of his last seven games and is averaging 16.1 carries per game on the season. He has four touchdowns on the year and has averaged 69.6 rushing yards per contest. He has reached at least 14 DraftKings points in four of his last five weeks, including last week when he hung 14.9 DraftKings points on the Dolphins in Miami. In his last home game, he ran for over 100 yards and had over 20 DraftKings points against the Chargers on Monday Night Football.
One area of involvement where Conner also contributes but doesn’t get as much credit for is in the receiving game. Conner has multiple catches in four straight games and added over 50 receiving yards in that win over the Chargers.
With so much volume regularly coming his way, Conner is matchup-proof to some degree. He’s going to get his workload in almost every game script. His matchup against the Bears looks mostly neutral this week, although opposing running backs have reached at least 100 yards against Chicago in four of the last five weeks.
From this salary under $7,000, Conner is a midrange play this week that should bring good value based on his volume projections in this matchup in the desert.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Will Dissly ($3,100) Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Cleveland Browns (42.5 total)
Last week, Cade Otton smashed in this value spot as a very chalky cheap play with a ton of upside. With the Bucs on Monday Night Football this week, we’ll have to look elsewhere for value at this position on the main slate this week. Dissly has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in our aggregate projections this week and has been a strong emerging option for the Chargers, whose passing game seems to be on the right track now that Justin Herbert ($5,300) is past his injury and Ladd McConkey ($5,600) is more comfortable in the NFL.
The Chargers still have a lack of depth at receiver though, which has opened the door for Dissly to step up the last two weeks. Early in the year, he was sharing snaps with Hayden Hurst ($2,800) but Hurst has missed the last two weeks with a groin injury. Dissly has seized the opportunity and produced a total of 13 catches on 18 targets for 122 yards. He led the team with 11 targets in Week 7 and tied J.K. Dobbins ($7,000) for the team lead in targets in Week 8. Dissly has had multiple catches in every game since Week 1 and should remain involved, especially if Hurst and Quentin Johnston ($4,400) miss another week.
The matchup for Dissly is a favorable one since the Browns surrendered 10 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown last week to the Ravens tight ends have given up four catches or more to the position in three of the last five weeks.
Keep an eye on those Chargers’ practice reports, and be ready to use Dissly as a great value if he’s lined up for a big role once again.
