The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Raiders at Buccaneers
The Raiders travel to Tampa Bay as slight road underdogs (+1) for a game with the third-highest Vegas total of the week (49). The Bucs are implied to score 25 points and the Raiders 24 in a game that could easily shoot out.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
Carr has thrown just two touchdown passes in the past two weeks, but his salary is down $1,400 since the start of the season and $800 from last week. Per our Trends tool, Carr falls right in line with a valuable Pro Trend this week:
Carr is sixth in pass attempts (37.7 per game) and seventh in red-zone attempts (4.9 per game) this year but faces a Tampa Bay team giving up the third-fewest pass attempts per game this year (32). The Bucs rank 23rd in defensive DVOA but, more importantly, they’ve been more stout against the run than the pass this year. Even as a slight road underdog, Carr is a reasonable cash-game play in this high-total game: He’s just $5,900 on DK and is currently the third-highest rated QB in the Adam Levitan Model.
RB – Latavius Murray
Murray returned to the lineup last week following a toe injury and out-touched the rest of this backfield rotation 20 to 11 en route to a 18-59-2 stat line. This week, he’ll get the Bucs, who have a stout Opponent Plus/Minus against RBs in the last year, but their 15th-ranked rush DVOA mark suggests they might be worse than that number indicates. Murray has been inefficient, but that could be less damaging if he continues to see a significant workload. He’s worthy of GPP consideration this week and is currently projected for five to eight percent ownership on both sites.
RB – DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Jamize Olawale
This group definitely has potential in the future, but judging by Murray’s workload in his return it is reasonable to assume the coaching staff still believes in him as the primary threat. This backfield is too crowded to use any complementary options in DFS with any confidence.
WR – Amari Cooper
Cooper struggled last week against Jalen Ramsey, but that could reduce his ownership for Week 8: He’s currently projected at 17 to 20 percent on both sites. This isn’t the easiest matchup — the Bucs rank 11th against opposing WR1s this year, per DVOA — but Cooper still is the fifth-highest rated WR in the Tournament Model on FD. He boasts a 98 percent Bargain Rating there, as well as the slate’s fifth-highest projected ceiling (19.6). Per our Trends tool, road underdog wide receivers at a similar salary and point projection typically perform well above salary-based expectations:
WR – Michael Crabtree
The Bucs rank 27th defending passes in the middle of the field, per DVOA, which is where Crabtree should do most of his damage. He should be very popular along with Cooper: He’s currently projected for nine to 12 percent ownership on both sites. He’ll face a Bucs defense that has allowed the third-most touchdowns per game (1.5) to wide receivers this year. He’s certainly in play in GPPs this week.
WR – Seth Roberts
It is clear that Carr trusts Roberts in the area of the field that matters the most for DFS purposes, as he leads the team with eight targets inside the 20-yard line. Roberts could be sneaky in GPPs this week at zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. He is currently the sixth-highest rated wide receiver in our Tournament Model on DK, where he has a 91 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford has had a limited impact through seven weeks, catching no more than two catches per game over the past four games. Things won’t get easier against a Bucs defense ranked fourth in TE DVOA. There are better TE punt plays out there.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Winston and company have a great matchup this week playing at home in what Vegas projects as a relatively high-scoring game. That could translate to plenty of passing yards for Winston, given that the Raiders lead the league in passing yards allowed and rank 28th in pass DVOA this season. Oakland has allowed three quarterbacks to eclipse 30-plus points on DraftKings; they’ve given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. Priced at just $5,700 on DK, Winston has an 83 percent Bargain Rating and makes for a fantastic play in both cash games and GPPs.
RB – Jacquizz Rodgers
Since taking over the lead back duties, Rodgers is averaging 31 touches per game and has become a real workhorse for the Buccaneers. He has reached 100-plus rushing yards and eclipsed 20 DK fantasy points in each outing. Rodgers was finally given a sizable salary bump and sits at $6,600 on FD this week. Oakland is currently giving up the third-most rushing yards and ranks top-10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Winston and Mike Evans may be the most popular stack of the week, but adding Rodgers could be a contrarian way to get unique exposure to this game.
RB – Peyton Barber
After getting just three touches in Week 5, Barber was heavily involved against San Francisco, accruing 84 yards and a rushing touchdown on just 12 carries. However, his volume last week may have been more a result of the 49ers’ fast pace than improved play. There isn’t much behind Rodgers on the depth chart at running back, but Barber would likely need another injury in order for him to gain true fantasy relevance.
WR – Mike Evans
Per our NFL Matchups tool, Evans will likely line up to run most of his routes against Sean Smith on the outside. Smith and the rest of the Oakland secondary have allowed some big games to opposing wideouts, giving up seven different 100-yard performances to date. That bodes well for Evans, who leads the league in Air Yards and will continue to dominate the Tampa Bay target distribution without Vincent Jackson. Evans has averaged 13.6 targets per game over his last five outings; he is an elite play in all contest formats, as Raiders are allowing the third-most fantasy points on DK to opposing receivers.
WR – Adam Humphries
In a high-volume game last week, Humphries wasn’t able to take advantage of Jackson’s absence, catching two of three targets for 17 yards. However, slot receivers have fared quite well against the Raiders to date and Humphries is still expected to start in that position. He runs 78 percent of his routes from the slot, where he’ll spend a lot of time against D.J. Hayden, PFF’s 95th-ranked cornerback on the season. At just $3,000 on DK, he could be an interesting GPP punt play.
WR – Russell Shepard
Last week, Shepard caught five of his six targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. He seems to be the guy to monitor moving forward without Jackson: He was highly efficient in his 27 snaps. He has a low projected DK ceiling (6.8) but could see an expanded role moving forward.
TE – Cameron Brate
Brate was a bit of a disappointment last week in a prime spot but gets a juicy matchup this week that he could potentially exploit. The Raiders have given up the fifth-most receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing tight ends so far this season. They gave up a league-high 12 touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season. Brate is second on the team in red-zone targets and has a good shot at reaching value in this matchup.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
