The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Packers at Falcons
The Falcons are currently three-point favorites for their Sunday afternoon matchup against the Packers. This game is looking like a shootout, as the Vegas total of 52.5 points is the highest of Week 8. The Packers are currently implied to score 24.75 points, while the Falcons are implied to score 27.75 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field inside the Georgia Dome this Sunday.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers threw 56 passes during the Packers’ Week 7 win over the Bears, as an injured Don Jackson left the offense little choice but to air the ball out. While all of this opportunity is great for Rodgers’ fantasy aspirations, he’s still averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt this season – the 29th-highest mark in the league among all quarterbacks. In addition to improving his efficiency, he’ll need to overcome a matchup in which he’s historically struggled:
As our Trends tool shows, Rodgers has posted a -4.01 Plus/Minus with 25 percent Consistency and has averaged just 15.45 DK points in his four games as a road underdog over the past three seasons. It’s a small sample size but isn’t a good sign considering how poorly (by his standards) Rodgers has played over the past season and a half. He’s the most expensive quarterback on FanDuel this week at $8,800 and has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. Rodgers will face a Falcons secondary that was exposed earlier in the season but has allowed just two passing touchdowns over the past three weeks.
RB – Don Jackson and Knile Davis
Jackson (hand) practiced this week and has been removed from the Week 8 injury report. He’s fully expected to play this week and could split some of the backfield touches with Davis. Coach Mike McCarthy said Wednesday that he expects Davis to have a role in the offense this week now that he has a better understanding of the playbook. Regardless, both backs have limited upside due to the uncertainty surrounding their workload. Jackson is the cheaper back on DraftKings, where he is priced at $3,300. He’ll face a Falcons defense that has allowed 2.3 points above salary-based expectations to running backs over the past 12 months.
RB/WR – Ty Montgomery
Serving as the team’s de facto change-of-pace back, Montgomery has averaged 12.5 targets and six carries over the past two weeks. He’s yet to score a touchdown but offers an unprecedented workload for a No. 4 wide receiver. FanDuel has changed Montgomery’s position to running back, although he’s still a receiver on DraftKings. On FD, where his $6,400 price tag comes with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and +3.7 Projected Plus/Minus, he especially makes for an intriguing play. The Falcons have struggled to contain running backs in the passing game this season, as Melvin Gordon — not known as a receiving back — was able to convert his seven targets into a 6-53-1 line last week.
Montgomery was limited in practice this week because of an unspecified illness. He’s listed as questionable but expected to play.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson has now been held scoreless in each of his last two games and has gained just 77 yards on his last 11 targets. He hasn’t demonstrated that he’s still capable of taking the top off of a defense, as his 6.3 yards-per-target mark ranks just 107th among all wide receivers this season. Nelson is still the team’s leading receiver in the red zone and is averaging a healthy 8.5 targets per game, but his upside is limited as long as he’s performing like a possession receiver. He’s priced at $7,500 on FD with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and has nine FD Pro Trends for his matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed 0.6 points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb (hamstring) was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable. He’s expected to play but might be limited if he’s active. His situation should be monitored.
Cobb had a slow start to the 2016 season but has been on a tear since returning from the Packers’ Week 4 bye. Cobb has posted a +10.37 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and averaged 23.23 DraftKings points over the past three weeks. The biggest change has been his increased involvement in the offense, as he’s averaging over 12 targets per game since Week 4. Cobb is priced at $6,800 on FD with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.8 Projected Plus/Minus for his matchup against Brian Poole – PFF’s 15th-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams dominated last week, converting his team-high 16 targets into a 13-132-2 line. Whatever chemistry problems he and Rodgers may have had seem to be a thing of the past, although his target totals will likely remain volatile in an offense with four receivers on the field for the majority of snaps. Adams is priced at $4,900 on DK and has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
TE – Richard Rodgers
Rodgers had one target last week and hasn’t been able to top 25 receiving yards in a game this season. He has a very low ceiling and shouldn’t be considered as anything more than a GPP punt play on DraftKings, where his $2,700 price tag comes with a 79 percent Bargain Rating.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
The Packers are one of this year’s funnel defenses, ranking second in run DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), forcing opposing offenses to beat them through the air. That could lead to a big day from Ryan, who’s orchestrating the top passing offense in the league. Per our Player Models, Ryan leads all quarterbacks with a 38.6-point projected ceiling on FanDuel. The Packers have done a decent job limiting big games to opposing quarterbacks: Only Matthew Stafford has eclipsed 20 fantasy points against them this season. However, this game is the highest-projected scoring game of the week, and we’ve seen Ryan outperform expectations on a near-weekly basis this season. He makes for a fantastic GPP play given his potential ceiling.
RB – Devonta Freeman
As noted earlier, Green Bay has been tough against the run, allowing the fewest fantasy points and rushing yards to the position. Only Ezekiel Elliott has found success against them (28-157-0). With Tevin Coleman (hamstring) officially out, we could potentially see the 2015 version of Freeman who took the league by storm. While the matchup is daunting, Freeman’s projected usage and the Falcons’ high implied total is enough to make him playable in any contest format; he has an absurd +8.55 Projected Plus/Minus on FD.
Freeman (hip) was limited earlier in the week but wasn’t listed on the team’s final injury report. He’s fully expected to play.
RB – Terron Ward
Ward was a favorite of many preseason DFS players, but he has yet to take an NFL snap this season. He was just promoted from the practice squad this week, so we should temper our expectations in Week 8. Freeman should dominate the touches, as he did last year in Coleman’s absence. Ward isn’t available on DK but is on FD.
WR – Julio Jones
It’s no secret that Atlanta’s passing attack goes through their top wideout. Julio owns a dominant 51.42 percent of the team’s market share of Air Yards over the last four games, per the Week 8 Market Share Report:
Julio will likely keep that going this week against a defense that just lost Sam Shields and Damarious Randall over the past two weeks. That means Julio should run most of his routes against LaDarius Gunter, PFF’s 64th-ranked CB this year; there’s a reason Julio is priced well above the field on DraftKings at $9,600. John Proctor noted in his Week 8 WR-CB Matchups article that Green Bay is allowing 11 catches and 104 yards on average to opposing WR1s. Julio is an elite option this week on both sites as either a cash or GPP play.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
For as much fantasy production Green Bay has been giving up to opposing WR1s, they fare even worse against WR2s, ranking 27th in DVOA. This looks like a sneaky game for Sanu to make a statement in what should be a high-scoring affair. Sanu will likely run most of his routes against Micah Hyde in the slot, who is being targeted on 22 percent of his routes defended. Sanu has seen 14 targets over the past two games and has seen his salary drop -$1,600 from its highest point of the season on DK. At just $4,100, he offers flexibility to pay up at other positions while providing a unique way to get exposure to this week’s highest-projected scoring game.
TE – Jacob Tamme
Tamme has six total receptions over Atlanta’s past four games; his role in this offense has been dwindling since Week 2. This could be a potential bounce-back game for Tamme, however, if he takes over some of the more shallow targets that Coleman was receiving. The Packers have been solid against opposing tight ends, allowing on average a 4.3-61.8-0.3 stat line and ranking 12th in DVOA against the position. Tamme is seeing nearly the equivalent target market share of Levine Toilolo and Austin Hooper combined, and he’s scored in three of seven games. Tamme has a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DK and five Pro Trends. He could be a unique way to pivot off the similarly-priced C.J. Fiedorowicz, who’s projected for five to eight percent ownership.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
