The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
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Lions at Texans
The Texans are 2.5-point favorites for their Week 8 matchup against the Lions. The Texans are currently implied to score 23.75 points, well above their season average of 16.7 points per game. The Lions are currently implied to score 21.25 points, as they look to pick up their first road win since Week 1. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field Sunday afternoon.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford has been on an absolute tear since Week 9 of last season:
In 15 games, he’s thrown for 34 touchdowns versus just six interceptions, per PFR. One of the biggest differences has been his willingness to take what the defense gives him. Stafford had an 8.3-yard aDOT in 2014, as he often pushed the ball downfield to Calvin Johnson despite the strong possibility of double or triple coverage. Since Week 9 of last season, Stafford has averaged a 6.95-yard aDOT and is now averaging career highs in both yards per attempt and completion percentage. He’ll be tested this week against a Texans defense that has allowed a 43.93 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months – the fourth-stingiest mark in the league. Stafford is priced at $6,400 on DraftKings and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick returned to practice this week and is expected to play. He’s not listed on the final injury report. He’s missed the Lions’ last two games with an ankle injury but will look to have a strong comeback game in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
As our Trends tool shows, Riddick has posted a +4.12 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and has averaged 10.08 DK points in his 12 games as a road underdog over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $5,000 on DK and his 9.7-point projected floor is the fourth-highest mark among all running backs priced under $5,500 on DK.
RB – Zach Zenner, Justin Forsett, and Dwayne Washington
Washington practiced in full on Wednesday and should be healthy enough to play this Sunday. This will likely create a running back-by-committee situation between Zenner, Forsett, and Washington for the team’s early-down back role. Considering Washington and Zenner have split goal-line carries this season, the group of backs behind Riddick are all very risky fantasy options this week due to their uncertain workload.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones caught four of his five targets and gained 94 receiving yards against Josh Norman and the Redskins last week. Still, he’s now failed to meet his salary-based expectation in his last four games. Jones has a chance to break out of his mini-slump in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
Much like Riddick, Jones has thrived as a road underdog over the past two seasons. He’s posted a +6.42 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and has averaged 15.68 DK points in his six games as a road underdog. Jones is priced at $6,600 on DK with seven Pro Trends, although he has a tough matchup against A.J. Bouye – PFF’s highest-graded cornerback this season.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate has now had double-digit targets in consecutive games and seems to have put his early-season slump behind him. After struggling to make much happen after the catch earlier in the season, Tate has re-emerged as one of the league’s most dangerous wide receivers with the ball in his hands. He’s averaging a league-high 5.3 yards after the catch per target, more than a yard higher than his top-five mark from last season. Tate is priced at $5,100 on DK with a +1.81 Projected Plus/Minus, although he has a tough matchup against a Texans defense that has allowed one point below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin has scored a touchdown in consecutive weeks but could see his role diminished now that Eric Ebron is reportedly expected to return this Sunday. He does have a good matchup against Kareem Jackson, PFF’s 86th-highest graded cornerback this season, but it’s hard to imagine him getting many targets with both Ebron and Riddick returning. Boldin is priced at $4,200 on DraftKings and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron (knee, ankle) returned to practice this week and is set to play for the first time since the Lions’ Week 4 loss to the Bears. He’s officially listed as questionable but expected to be active.
Prior to his injury, he was averaging 6.2 targets per game. Ebron is a bit of a risky play this week due to the uncertainty surrounding his snaps, but he is a nice contrarian GPP option on DK, where his $3,000 price tag comes with nine Pro Trends and a +4.77 Projected Plus/Minus.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler threw for 131 yards on 41 pass attempts during the Texans’ Week 7 loss to the Broncos. He’s now failed to surpass three touchowns or 275 passing yards in a game this season. Pretty much the only thing going for Osweiler is that the Texans have scored a league-leading 89 percent of their red-zone touchdowns through the air, as he’s attempted 4.8 passes inside the opponent’s 20-yard line per game. Even in a good matchup against a Lions defense that is ranked last in defensive DVOA, Osweiler hasn’t given us any reason to think he’s capable of putting together a monster fantasy performance. He’s priced at $5,400 on DraftKings and has a 7.2-point projected floor.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller injured his shoulder last week and coach Bill O’Brien has said that he’ll be a game-time decision. Miller is officially listed as questionable but reportedly expects to play. At the same time, he’s admitted that he isn’t sure how much playing time he’ll actually get. (Yikes.)
He had a slow start to the season, averaging just 3.67 yards per carry through the first five weeks. Since then, Miller has looked like his old self, averaging six yards per carry and scoring his first two touchdowns of the season over the past two weeks. He’s priced at $7,400 on FD with a 92 percent Bargain Rating for his matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed a touchdown on 4.85 percent of their opponent’s snaps over the past 12 months – the third-worst mark in the league.
RB – Alfred Blue
Miller is expected to be ready to go by Sunday, but if he’s not then Blue will serve as the team’s lead back. In the past he’s shown that he’s capable of producing with a featured role in the offense. He’s averaged a 21.44-85.44-0.33 line in his nine career games with 15-plus carries. If Miller is active, Blue isn’t worthy of fantasy consideration due to his lack of touches.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins leads the league with 27 targets over the past two weeks but ranks just 40th in receiving yards with 107, per Graham Barfield. He’s struggled to develop chemistry with Osweiler all season but finds himself in a matchup that similar players have historically thrived in:
As our Trends tool shows, wide receivers priced over $7,000 on DK have balled out against the Lions at home over the past three seasons. Hopkins is priced at $7,600 on FD with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has seven Pro Trends for his matchup against a Lions defense that ranks dead last against WR1s in DVOA.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller has gained fewer than 35 receiving yards and scored zero touchdowns in three of his last four games. Still, his speed hasn’t gone anywhere and he faces a Lions defense that has struggled against the deep ball this season. The Lions have allowed a 100-plus passer rating on passes thrown over 15 yards to either the right or left side of the field through seven weeks, per sharpfootballstats.com. Fuller will need Osweiler to get a bit more accurate on his deep passes to cash in on this solid matchup, as Osweiler ranks just 26th among all quarterbacks in deep ball completion percentage this season, per playerprofiler.com. Fuller is priced at $6,600 on FD with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
Additionally, Darius Slay – PFF’s 11th-highest graded cornerback this season – has been ruled out for Week 8. Fuller is expected to run most of his routes against Slay’s ‘replacement,’ Johnson Bademosi, who primarily play on special teams.
WR – Jaelen Strong
Strong is an intriguing play whenever Nuk or Fuller are sidelined, but he isn’t involved enough in the offense otherwise to warrant fantasy consideration. This week, he’s minimum-priced on DK with a -1.18 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – C.J. Fiedorowicz
Fiedorowicz has significantly out-snapped backup tight end Ryan Griffin through seven weeks, although Griffin has actually run more pass routes and has four more targets on the season. This ratio has moved in Fiedorowicz’s favor over the past few weeks, but he still has a 42.6 percent route to snap ratio – a bottom-five mark among all tight ends this season. Fiedorowicz is clearly the team’s primary tight end, but he’s not always the primary passing option, which makes him a risky play this week even against a Lions defense that has allowed a league-high five points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months. Exposure to Fiedorowicz should be focused on DK, where his $2,800 price tag comes with a 79 percent Bargain Rating and +3.65 Projected Plus/Minus.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
