The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Jaguars at Titans
The Titans are currently 3.5-point favorites for their Thursday night matchup against the Jaguars. As is often the case on #TNF, there isn’t expected to be much scoring: The current Vegas total of 43 points is the second-lowest of Week 8. The Jaguars are implied to score 19.75 points, while the Titans are implied to score 23.25 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field Thursday night in Nashville.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Put simply, Bortles has been very bad at playing quarterback through seven weeks. He’s yet to throw for three touchdowns in a game and hasn’t thrown for more than 275 yards since Week 2. With that said, Bortles has morphed into a solid fantasy quarterback on the road over the past two seasons:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +6.72 Plus/Minus with 80 percent Consistency and averaged 22.61 DraftKings points in his 10 road games over the past two seasons. Additionally, Bortles has turned in some of the better performances of his career against the Titans:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, we see that Bortles has a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio against the Titans and a 1.14:1 ratio against everyone else. It’s tough to trust the inconsistent Bortles in cash games, but his history of performing well both on the road and against the Titans makes him an enticing GPP play priced at $6,100 on DK. He’ll face a Titans defense that has allowed 3.7 points above salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in the league behind only the Saints.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory got loose for a 42-yard run during the Jaguars’ Week 7 loss to the Raiders. Remove that one run and he’s gained just 81 rushing yards on 35 carries this season – an average of just 2.31 yards per rush. Adding to Ivory’s troubles is the fact that he’s historically struggled as an underdog:
He’s posted a -0.1 Plus/Minus with 41.2 percent Consistency and has averaged just 7.82 DK points in his 17 games as an underdog over the past three seasons. Ivory is priced at $3,400 on DK with a -0.51 Projected Plus/Minus and faces a Titans defense that has allowed 0.2 points below salary-based expectations to running backs over the past 12 months.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon has posted a -2.56 Plus/Minus with 25 percent Consistency and is averaging just 6.98 DK points in his four games with Chris Ivory. He’s had more than eight touches in only one of those four games and no longer possesses his decent-sized floor, as Ivory has actually been targeted more often than Yeldon over the past two weeks. Yeldon is a very risky play this week due to the uncertainty surrounding his touches, and any exposure to him should be focused on DK, where he is priced at $3,800 with an 82 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Allen Robinson
Robinson converted his eight targets into just nine yards during the Jaguars’ Week 7 loss to the Raiders. After having just two games in 2015 with fewer than 75 receiving yards and zero touchdowns, he’s already accomplished that ‘feat’ four times in six games this season. Robinson is still averaging over nine targets per game, but his average of 5.4 yards per target ranks well outside the top-100 wide receivers through seven weeks. He’ll look to get back on track against a Titans defense that has allowed a 50.28 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months. Robinson is priced at $7,500 on DraftKings and has a 22-point projected ceiling.
WR – Allen Hurns
Hurns was limited in practice Monday but is expected to be ready to go for Thursday night. He’s had a slow start to the 2016 season, failing to surpass 75 receiving yards in a single game and scoring just one touchdown through seven weeks. Still, there’s reason to believe Hurns is primed for a bounce-back game at Nissan Stadium. Hurns has posted a +7.43 Plus/Minus with 64.7 percent Consistency and averaged 16.39 DraftKings points in his 17 road games over the past three seasons. He’s lined up in the slot on a majority of his routes this season, so he should see a lot of Brice McCain – PFF’s 51st-highest graded cornerback this season. Hurns is priced at $5,700 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.65 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee has been targeted six-plus times in each of the last three weeks, although he’s still averaging just 10.95 DK points per game. He’ll look to find the end zone for the first time this season against Perrish Cox – PFF’s seventh-lowest graded cornerback this season. Lee is minimum-priced on FD with a 76 percent Bargain Rating and is worthy of consideration as a GPP punt play thanks to his solid matchup and +1.95 FD Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Julius Thomas
Thomas didn’t practice Tuesday with an ankle injury and is very questionable for Thursday night. He received three red-zone targets last week after having zero through the first six weeks of the season. Thomas responded with his second touchdown of the season and has now converted 15 of his last 22 targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns since 2013, per PFR. If he’s able to suit up, he’ll look to exploit a Titans secondary that doesn’t have a safety graded higher than 54th by PFF through seven weeks. Thomas is priced at $3,600 on DK and faces a Titans defense that has allowed 2.5 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Mariota has now thrown for multiple touchdown passes in three straight games. Still, those games were against Miami, Cleveland, and Indianapolis — three teams that haven’t exactly shut down opposing offenses this season. A closer look at Mariota’s success throughout his career suggests that he’s thrived when facing lesser competition:
Excluding his start against the Patriots last season in which he threw just six pass attempts before being injured, Mariota has played in nine games against defenses that are ranked in the bottom-10 in average yards per play allowed over the past 12 months. He’s averaged 21.79 fantasy points in those games, well above his average of 16.85 fantasy points in his nine games against non-bottom-10 opponents in yards per play allowed over the past 12 months. This week, Mariota will face a Jaguars defense that has allowed 7.02 yards per play over the past 12 months – the eighth-best mark in the league. He’s priced at $7,500 on FD and has a six-point projected floor.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Murray has now surpassed 100 total yards in five of his seven games this season. He’s had this early success for a variety of reasons. Murray has helped his own cause, as he’s currently second among all running backs with 5.9 evaded tackles per game. Additionally, playerprofiler.com has graded the Titans’ offensive line as the fourth-best run-blocking unit in the league this season. With this combination, coach Mike Mularkey has rightfully called the fourth-most run plays in the league through seven weeks. Murray is priced at $8,300 on FD and leads all running backs with 11 FD Pro Trends for his matchup against a Jaguars defense that has already allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season.
RB – Derrick Henry
As beastly as Henry is, he’s averaged 3.75 touches per game over the past four weeks and won’t be a fantasy option unless Murray misses some time.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Sharpe was limited in practice Tuesday and should be considered questionable for Thursday night. If Sharpe is able to play, he could see a lot of Jalen Ramsey, who is fresh off of holding Amari Cooper to just 29 receiving yards on five targets. Sharpe will need to improve his efficiency to have a chance against Ramsey, as Sharpe is averaging just 5.5 yards per target this season – a mark that ranks well outside the top-100 wide receivers through seven weeks. He’s priced at $3,200 on DK and has a low 5.3-point projected floor.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews had been playing great prior to last week, when he converted his seven targets into 37 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. His production is very volatile and he just doesn’t have much upside as the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver on the league’s fourth-most run-happy offense. Matthews is priced at $3,500 on DK with an 80 percent Bargain Rating and could see a lot of Prince Amukamara – PFF’s 30th-highest graded cornerback this season.
WR – Kendall Wright
After going off for an 8-133-1 line during the Titans’ Week 6 win over the Browns, Wright was held to just 12 yards on four targets last week. Still, he has a chance to ball out this week against slot cornerback Davon House, PFF’s third-worst cornerback this season out of 115 eligible corners. Wright is priced at $4,800 on FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and will look to continue his efficient play, as he’s averaged a strong 9.9 yards per target this season.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker has been inconsistent this season but has continued his habit of producing when given a decent-sized role in the offense. He’s averaged a 6.92-77.58-0.33 line in his 12 games with eight-plus targets over the past two seasons. Walker is priced at $4,700 on DraftKings with seven DK Pro Trends and has a tough matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
