NFL DFS Week 8 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Can You Trust Sam Ehlinger?

NFL Week 8 features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

The top of the quarterback position is a bit thinner than usual this week. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson are all unavailable on the main slate, leaving Jalen Hurts as the clear top stud. Hurts had some big games to start the year, posting at least 24.72 DraftKings points in his first three weeks. However, his play has deteriorated a bit of late. He has 16.96 DraftKings points or fewer in two of his past three games, so his floor isn’t quite the same as some of the other top QBs in fantasy.

Still, his upside is apparent. No one at the position brings more to the table from a rushing perspective. He’s averaged 48.8 rushing yards per game, and he’s added six rushing touchdowns. His touchdown-scoring upside is what separates him from other rushing quarterbacks. He leads the league with 25 red zone carries, and he has the third-most attempts from inside the five-yard line. That means he essentially serves as the Eagles’ goal line runner in addition to their starting quarterback.

Hurts’ ceiling is reflected in THE BLITZ. It checks in at more than 40 DraftKings points, which leads the position by more than 8.5 points.

Value

The most intriguing question at the position is how to approach Sam Ehlinger. He’s priced at the absolute minimum across the industry, and you simply don’t find quarterbacks at that price tag very often. He leads all quarterbacks in our NFL Models in terms of projected Plus/Minus, which obviously makes him a viable option in cash games.

However, DFS is not the same game that it was even a few years ago. You can’t simply ask your quarterback to return value; you need to have some ceiling as well. Historically, min-priced quarterbacks haven’t been particularly good in that department. They’ve averaged a Plus/Minus of just +0.52 on DraftKings, and only four of 17 players in the sample have cracked 19 fantasy points (per the Trends tool).

It remains to be seen if Ehlinger can join that group. He’s not a highly regarded prospect at the position, and he was merely a sixth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, he does have an excellent matchup vs. the Commanders, who rank merely 29th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA.

Ultimately, I don’t mind using Ehlinger for cash games, but I will not be playing him in tournaments. I don’t see enough upside to justify using him, especially given his projected ownership of around 10%.

Quick Hits

Tua Tagovailoa will likely be my cash game quarterback this week. He’s also pretty affordable at $6,200 on DraftKings, and he brings a bit more ceiling to the position. He’s already had a game with 43.86 DraftKings points, and he draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Lions. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.3 on DraftKings ranks fourth at the position, and the Lions rank 31st in pass defense DVOA.

Kyler Murray is one of my favorite tournament options, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 79%. Murray hasn’t had the best season, but getting DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup should be a big boost. Murray didn’t need to throw much in last week’s blowout win vs. the Saints, but it was arguably his most efficient week as a passer. This game also features the second-highest total on the slate, and Murray owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.9. This could be the week he breaks out.

Geno Smith has come crashing back to reality of late, but could he be a buy-low option against the Giants’ blitz-happy defense? Matt Martin takes a look in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

There is no shortage of appealing value options at running back this week, which has been the case for most of the season. That has resulted in most of the highest-priced players at the position carrying reduced ownership.

However, it’s hard to see Derrick Henry being too overlooked on this slate. He’s carried an insane workload over the past four weeks, averaging 25 carries and four targets per game. He’s led the Titans to four straight victories, putting them back in the driver’s seat in the AFC South.

It’s hard to see the formula changing too much in Week 8, especially given the matchup vs. the Texans. They’ve been dreadful against opposing running backs this season, ranking dead last in rush defense DVOA. Henry also leads the position with a +6.2 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and the Texans just surrendered 39.5 DraftKings points to Josh Jacobs last week.

Henry also has some elite history in this matchup. He has rushed for at least 200 yards in each of his past three meetings vs. the Texans, and he’s scored at least 39.0 DraftKings points in all three games. Overall, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +13.75 against Houston over the past two years.

It’s hard to pass up on some of the outstanding values at running back this week, but Henry’s ceiling is too difficult to ignore. He’s also one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

Value

It has finally happened. Fantasy Twitter has been begging for the Cowboys to unleash Tony Pollard, and they will get their wish this Sunday. Ezekiel Elliott is doubtful, and it sounds as though he could be sidelined for multiple weeks.

Pollard operating as the sole running back in Dallas makes him a clear top 10 option at the position, and he could approach the No. 1 overall spot. He’s been hyper-efficient with his touches this season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per reception. The thought of him getting 20+ opportunities plus all the goal line work is absolutely mouth-watering.

The matchup vs. the Bears is just the cherry on top. They rank 24th in rush defense DVOA, and the Cowboys are currently 10.5-point favorites. That should set up an ideal game script for Pollard to get fed. Pollard may be one of the highest-owned players we’ve seen all season, but it’s hard to imagine him busting in this spot. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus per THE BLITZ regardless of position, and frankly, it’s not even that close.

Quick Hits

D’Onta Foreman will have the Panthers’ backfield to himself this week. He served as the lead back in a two-man committee with Chuba Hubbard last week, but Hubbard will miss this week’s contest with an injury. Hubbard siphoned nine carries, 69 yards, and a touchdown away from Foreman last week, who had 115 rushing yards of his own. He’s another back with a fantastic matchup, facing a Falcons squad that ranks last in defensive DVOA.

DraftKings refuses to price Kenneth Walker III properly. We’re entering his third straight game as the starting running back in Seattle, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two. His salary is up to $6,500 vs. the Giants, but that still results in a Bargain Rating of 97%. The Giants rank 30th in rush defense DVOA, so there’s no reason not to go right back to the well.

It’s impossible to touch on every relevant back this week, but don’t forget about Josh Jacobs and Dameon Pierce. Matt Martin highlights both players in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

Tyreek Hill has wasted no time getting adjusted to life in Miami. He’s been one of the most featured receivers in the league, racking up at least 12 targets in five of seven games. It hasn’t mattered if Tua, Teddy Bridgewater, or Skylar Thompson has been under center; the ball has typically been headed toward Tyreek. Overall, his 31.7% target market share is the fifth-highest mark in the league, while his 40.5% air yards market share ranks eighth.

If Hill sees that many targets again this week, it’s hard to imagine him failing against the Lions. Their pass defense has been atrocious all season, and the Dolphins’ receivers have the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Pro Football Focus also gives Hill a massive edge, with none of the Lions’ cornerbacks ranking in the top 48 at the position.

Stacking this contest will likely be a very popular strategy, but there’s clearly some merit with Hill.

Value

Hill ranks second in THE BLITZ in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, trailing only D.J. Moore. Moore finally broke out of his slump to start the year, racking up 10 targets, seven catches, 69 yards, and one touchdown vs. the Buccaneers. It was his second-highest target output of the entire season, and with Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson no longer in town, those kinds of performances should become the norm.

Moore also draws a significantly easier matchup this week vs. the Falcons. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.8 is the top mark at the position, and that probably undersells just how exploitable Atlanta’s secondary is at the moment. They’re already dead last in pass defense DVOA, and now they’re without two of their top corners in Casey Hayward Jr. and A.J. Terrell.

Ultimately, Moore is going to be the first receiver into my cash game lineups this week.

Quick Hits

DeAndre Hopkins wasted little time making an impact in Arizona, racking up a 48.3% target share and a 59.9% air yards share in his first contest. There’s no reason to expect much to change vs. the Vikings, who rank 31st in DVOA against No. 1 receivers. The Cardinals will likely have to throw the ball a bit more than they did last week, giving Hopkins one of the higher ceilings at the position.

On the other side of that matchup, Justin Jefferson should be able to do some damage of his own. The Cardinals have been a pass funnel this season, ranking sixth in rush defense DVOA but just 27th against the pass. Jefferson has racked up at least 107 yards in three straight games, and he can certainly make it four in a row in this matchup.

The Jets are going to be without Corey Davis this week, which opens up some additional opportunities for Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore. This could be a “squeaky wheel” spot for Moore, who missed last week’s contest after complaining about his lack of involvement to start the year. However, Wilson is cheaper than Moore on DraftKings, which doesn’t make a ton of sense. He leads the team in target share and targets per route run, so he gets the nod from me vs. the Patriots.

Chris Olave should be extremely busy once again this week. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry have been ruled out vs. the Raiders, leaving Olave as the clear top option for New Orleans. He saw 14 targets last week vs. the Cardinals, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

The tight end position is pretty barren at the top this week. Only three players are priced above $5,000 on DraftKings, and none of them stands out as an appealing option.

Tyler Higbee is a bit more reasonable at $4,200, and he should continue to be a solid target for cash games. He ranks fourth at the position in target market share, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his first six games. His lone clunker came in his last outing, which is why his price tag is so reasonable vs. the 49ers.

Higbee certainly isn’t the most exciting option, but he ranks third at the position in terms of projected DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s also racked up the third-most expected DraftKings points per game, according to PFF, making him a responsible choice for cash games.

Value

The Cardinals’ struggles against opposing tight ends are well-documented, and Juwan Johnson was the most recent player to victimize this unit. He racked up five catches for 32 yards and two touchdowns in what was easily his best fantasy performance of the year.

Irv Smith Jr. will get his crack at the Cardinals in Week 8. Smith has grown more involved with the offense as the year has progressed, and he’s racked up at least four targets in five straight games. That’s not much, but four targets against the Cardinals might be the equivalent of 10 targets against a normal defense. He leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.2, and his $3,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.

Quick Hits

Pat Freiermuth returned to the Steelers’ lineup last week and immediately stepped right into a big role. His nine targets were the second-highest mark on the squad, and he finished with eight catches for 75 yards. The Eagles aren’t the easiest of matchups, but their stud corners are actually a positive for tight ends. Teams don’t usually make a habit of targeting Darius Slay and James Bradberry in coverage, so Freiermuth could be even busier than usual.

Darren Waller is down to $5,500 on FanDuel, putting him below guys like Higbee, Freiermuth, and Kyle Pitts. Waller hasn’t been in the lineup recently, but he was priced at $6,500 the last time we saw him take the field. Buying low on a talented player is almost always a smart idea, and Waller fits that description vs. the Saints.

Roster Construction

The first question you have to ask yourself is are you willing to play Ehlinger at QB? I’m not really leaning in that direction, but I must admit, it is pretty tempting. You can pair him with Pollard, Walker, and Foreman at running back, which leaves more than enough room for two stud receivers.

If you’re not willing to go with Ehlinger, you’re going to have to sacrifice one of the premium pass-catchers. That might not be the worst thing, but it is a sacrifice. One possible change would be going from someone like Hopkins to someone like Drake London. That gives you enough savings to move up to Tagovailoa at quarterback. Ultimately, it’s up to you to decide what you think is most important.

The same question applies on FanDuel. If you’re willing to go with Ehlinger, you can basically load up your roster at every other position across the board. If you’re not, you’ll have to make a similar sacrifice at wide receiver.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!