Week 8 is a welcomed sight for all of us that suffered through the Week 7 Bye-apocalypse.
We enjoyed watching our biggest early-week hit, Tua Tagavailoa, finish as the overall QB1.
Each week, I will bring you an early look at which players to target and fade for the upcoming Sunday DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ll do this by using our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and when lineups lock. Our Player Models update in real-time to help make quick lineup decisions before rosters lock.
This is a wonderful time of year, so let’s take a deep dive into which players to target in the eighth week of the 2021 NFL season.
Quarterback Target
Matt Ryan ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD)
I think the Atlanta Falcons offense has turned a corner as we approach the halfway point of the season.
Matt Ryan has finally started to look comfortable, with two touchdown passes in five straight games, and 10 touchdowns, and one interception in the last four contests. Ryan has also eclipsed 336 passing yards in two straight games.
He returns home in a tough matchup against a stiff Carolina defense, but that should provide enough reduced ownership for strong DFS upside. Ryan is our eighth highest-rated quarterback play on DraftKings and has a 32-point Ceiling Projection in a game with a 46 point total.
The Panthers are in free fall, entering this intradivisional battle on a four-game losing streak. Their pass defense allowed 373 yards to Kirk Cousins in Week 5 and failed to turn Giants quarterback Daniel Jones over in their 25-3 loss at New York in Week 8.
With Calvin Ridley now back, Cordarelle Patterson in the midst of a breakout season, and tight end Kyle Pitts starting to dominate as many expected, the Falcons have too many weapons to be concerned about an overrated Panthers defense.
Atlanta has the 11th-fastest neutral game script pace per FootballOutsiders, which they will use to keep Carolina on their heels. If Carolina quarterback Sam Darnold plays poorly again and backup PJ Walker enters the game, the Falcons could enjoy a myriad of short fields to navigate.
On a Sunday slate with limited rushing quarterback options, Ryan provides the perfect mix of safety and upside.
Quarterback Fade
Tom Brady ($7,400 DK, $8,300 FD)
Fade the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy points per game?
It’s only been a two-game sample size, but New Orleans has been the only team to consistently stifle Tom Brady as a member of the Buccaneers.
Those stats include a 38-3 thrashing at Tampa Bay, where Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown all played. While I’m sure Brady has revenge on his mind, I don’t think the price tag on both sites is a consideration. Brady is the third most-expensive quarterback on both sites but carries a 9.2-point floor given the Saints’ stout defense.
Brady projects as only the 13th-best DFS quarterback on DraftKings, falling short of more attractive and cheaper options such as Matt Ryan ($5,900) and Ryan Tannehill ($6,600).
Running Back Targets
Khalil Herbert ($5,400 DK, $6,500 FD)
Khalil Herbert has evolved into a legitimate DFS option after posting consecutive RB11 and RB6 performances. His price has not adjusted enough as he is RB16 on FanDuel and RB18 in cost on DraftKings.
The normally stout San Francisco run defense is only middle of the pack in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs and has allowed 100 yards or a rushing touchdown in each of the past four weeks.
Herbert saw five receptions last week with a 79% snap share in a massive negative game script against Tampa Bay. With Chicago as a small underdog at home, this game should be more competitive, resembling the Week 6 battle against Green Bay. In that game, Herbert achieved a 91.4% snap share.
Philadelphia doesn’t project well in this road matchup, and I have no problem starting Derek Carr and his lead running back as a non-traditional stack on an abbreviated slate.
Damien Harris ($6,100 DK, $6,900 FD)
The Chargers defense is the league’s best in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, enticing teams to skew run-heavy when facing Los Angeles. I expect New England to provide a heavy dose of Damien Harris as they try to control the ball against the explosive Chargers offense.
Over the past three weeks, the Patriots have run the ball 48.1% of the time, seventh-most the league. Harris’ numbers have increased accordingly, with two consecutive games of 100 or more yards and four total touchdowns in the past three weeks. In his price range, there are very few players in our FantasyLabs projections that carry the high floor/high upside combination we want in a DFS running back.
I expect Harris to get heavy volume once again and possibly produce a fifth game of two receptions for PPR value. Harris is one of the safest plays on the Week 8 slate.
Wide Receiver Target
Michael Pittman ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD)
The Colts’ leading receiver is one of the most underrated values in fantasy football. He has played 87% or more of the snaps in all but one game and has seven games of seven or more targets. With T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell both hurting, Pittman should once again garner the majority of targets against a Tennessee secondary that allows the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Pittman is fourth in route participation, involved in 98.7% of the team’s pass plays. This game is an ideal fantasy setting, with just a one-point spread and a 50.5 game total.
Pittman has weekly WR1 boom potential, and he is a cheaper or equal play than such marginal options as Marquez Callaway ($5,400 DK), Emmanuel Sanders ($5,400 DK), and Tyler Lockett ($6,600 FD).
There are only two games with a 50-point or higher over/under, and the Colts-Titans battle needs to be one of those targets.
Wide Receiver Fade
Terry McLaurin ($7,600 DK, $7,400 FD)
Washington’s lead wide receiver has three weeks of WR5 or better performances but is priced too high to use in Week 8. Washington is traveling to Denver to face a Broncos defense that is very strong at home. Denver allows the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and faces a Washington team that has allowed 29 or more points in five of the past six games.
McLaurin has one of the highest variations in weekly fantasy production, with four weeks of overall WR44 or worse performances. Denver defensive coordinator Vic Fangio should scheme to limit McLaurin, and a $7,400 or higher price on both sites is too high to risk.
I prefer similar or lower-priced options on both sites, such as Diontae Johnson ($6,700 DK), Calvin Ridley ($6,600 DK), and especially Stefon Diggs ($7,300 FD).
McLaurin also missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle issue.
Tight End Target
Pat Freiermuth ($3,600 DK, $4,900 FD)
The absence of JuJu Smith Schuster has opened up receiving opportunities that rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth will inherit.
The most mispriced TE in every waiver article is Pat Freiermuth.
Coming off bye everyone forgets he’s the JuJu replacement for Steelers.
Played 60% of snaps in his last game and caught all 7 targets.
Only Dionate Johnson in week 6 had a higher target per routes run % 31 to 30
— Brian Drake (@DrakeFantasy) October 27, 2021
Freiermuth saw a season-high 60.6% snap share last week against Seattle. He also saw a season-high in routes run (20), targets (seven), receptions (seven), and receiving yards (58) while posting a season-high overall TE10 result. His cost is incredibly low, which allows for higher-priced running back and wide receiver options in Week 8.
Pittsburgh will need to attack the Cleveland defenses through the air, as the Browns are far less efficient at defending the pass (23rd in DVOA) than the run (third in DVOA).
This is an upside play at the shallow tight end position, which has a chance to pay off with a solid TE1 performance. Grab Freiermuth at this value. The lowest it will be for the remainder of the season.
