As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
While it wasn’t quite a solo winner, Week 7 saw user “deathstarcanteen” turn nine lineups — or $180 in entry fees — into over a million dollars. With a first place lineup that lapped the field by over 17 points, it was the largest Milly Maker win in recent memory. Let’s break down how it happened below.
The Lineup
The Stack
This one was pretty straightforward. Both Patrick Mahomes and his top tight end Travis Kelce led their position in projections in our models by a fairly wide margin. While they also were the most expensive players at their respective positions, they had the upside to easily justify that price premium.
Mahomes actually ended up falling just short of the top quarterback score on the slate, trailing Lamar Jackson by .02 points on DraftKings. However, by generating the bulk of his offense through one receiver, this stack was more valuable than any that could be built around Jackson (and deathstarcanteen also rostered the Ravens’ top receiver in this lineup).
It was interesting that he didn’t include a Chargers bringback with his Mahomes stacks, as the game had the slate’s highest total and profiled as the best one from a fantasy perspective. That was arguably a mistake in a vacuum, as $4,800 Josh Palmer had a big game as expected. However, Palmer projected for and eventually saw fairly high ownership. Therefore, pivoting to other receivers in his price range was a solid contrarian option, even at the cost of some slight correlation.
Other Correlations
The only other correlated play here was pairing Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the Ravens top pass catcher Mark Andrews. While this game script was essentially the opposite of what you’d hope for with a back/pass catcher stack, it worked out regardless as Andrews caught two touchdown passes and Gibbs piled up plenty of production in garbage time.
This was a genius pairing for a large field GPP. Both players involved were fairly popular, but relatively unlikely to be played together. More importantly, playing two tight ends in the same lineup is even more contrarian. While both Andrews and Kelce were popular, I’m sure the number of lineups with both was less than one percent.
Of course, that’s the case most weeks, and we rarely see two tight ends in the winning lineup. However, this week was a better opportunity. None of the top receivers by salary projected as values at their price tag, so getting similar (price relative) production from tight end was more viable.
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The Chalk
The most popular players in this lineup were the two tight ends and Gibbs. Of course, the way this lineup was built around those players made them still very unique.
Outside of that, the Browns defense and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were the most rostered pieces. Cleveland surprisingly gave up 38 points to the Gardnew Minshew-led Colts. However, they also recorded four sacks, four turnovers, blocked a kick, and scored a touchdown. At this point, Myles Garret’s stat line alone would be one of the top fantasy defenses in the league.
Smith-Njigba was an awesome play as soon as DK Metcalf was ruled out. Fortunately for those paying attention, the Seahawks played in the late window in Week 7. With Metcalf truly questionable, it wasn’t until well after lock that we had definitive news.
Smith-Njigba had an increasing role in the Seattle offense anyway, but removing Metcalf from the equation obviously increased his value. His ownership likely would’ve been much higher had Metcalf been ruled out earlier in the week.
At roughly 10.3% ownership, Bears running back D’Onta Foreman isn’t quite chalk — especially considering his much higher ownership last week. Playing the prior week’s biggest disappointment continues to be a viable strategy in GPPs.
The Sleepers
Rostering Josh Downs instead of Josh Palmer was a bold call. Especially when Downs was playing against the defense this lineup used. It worked out, though, with Downs topping Palmer by five or so points while saving 10% in ownership. While it worked out here, I generally wouldn’t roster players against my own defense. It’s also worth noting that this lineup still would’ve won (easily) with Palmer instead of Downs.
Not too many people saw a big game coming from Courtland Sutton in Week 7. It did make sense to get some exposure to the Packers/Broncos game, though, as it had the second-highest total on the board. Sutton projected as a slightly better Pts/Sal option than Jerry Jeudy and ended up leading the Broncos in receiving.
It’s also possible Sutton was a late swap consideration. Especially with the presence of Njigba in this lineup, it’s somewhat likely that the lineup looked a bit different during the early games.
