As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
For Week 7, DraftKings offered a $10 buy-in Millionaire Maker contest as opposed to the usual $20. This meant an even bigger field than usual. Our winner, theHman, entered 18 lineups into the contest, with only one finishing in the top 30,000 — but that one took home first place.
Let’s see how they did it.
The Lineup
The Stack
Lions-Vikings had very obvious shootout potential, with a close spread and a total north of 50 points. How to attack that game was a bit trickier though. The primary skill position players were all pricey, while the Lions, in particular, have a fairly spread-out offense.
Which required a bit of luck on the Detroit side, which theHman found. They went with running back Jahmyr Gibbs and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown — both of who had their best fantasy performances of the season.
On the other side, the Vikings concentrated offense made things a bit easier. Justin Jefferson came into the week with the highest target share in the NFL, so he was a no-brainer. Personally, I thought that made Sam Darnold unnecessary, but on a low-scoring week, his 17.26 points were enough for first place.
That may have been a bit of a red herring though. Jared Goff put up a higher score at only $300 more in salary, and a cheaper quarterback (Geno Smith) outscored Darnold by a bit. Not that Darnold was a bad play, but when offenses are concentrated around one player the quarterback becomes less valuable in DFS.
Other Correlations
Two Browns players and the defense they were facing was an unorthodox choice, but it paid off this time. With Amari Cooper traded, there was a huge target vacuum in Cleveland. Rather than try to guess where those targets were going, theHman took two logical options — tight end David Njoku and wide receiver Elijah Moore.
Both put up very strong scores relative to their salary, largely thanks to PPR volume. Since they got there more based on catches (16 combined) than touchdowns, they didn’t hurt the production of the Bengals defense.
Cincinnati finished with four sacks, two turnovers, and a defensive touchdown — a relatively predictable outcome given the quarterback and offensive line play in Cleveland. Pairing them with PPR-dependent opponents was extremely unique, though, and is an angle worth considering moving forward.
The Chalk
The two most highly-owned players in this lineup were Njoku and Jefferson. Both projected among the leaders at their respective positions and were clearly strong plays.
It’s worth noting how theHman managed combined ownership around them, though. Given the price tags on Jefferson and St. Brown, it was fairly hard to fit both in a lineup. However, their production is strongly correlated, so finding the salary made for a unique build.
Njoku being paired with a teammate and an opposing defense is also unique, as we discussed above. Let this be (another) reminder that chalk can be OK in big tournaments — as long as you find unique ways to play it.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
The Sleepers
I write up the Lions running backs nearly every week as good plays. Their combined production has been excellent, but picking which one has the big game is a challenge. That keeps ownership low on them, making the guesswork worth it.
Broadly speaking, Gibbs tends to do better in close games, thanks to his passing game work, while David Montgomery does well when the Lions are firmly in control. We saw the former scenario here, and Gibbs had his best game of the year — at 3% ownership.
The other sleeper in this lineup was Mecole Hardman. Kansas City was already thin at wide receiver and lost JuJu Smith-Schuster early in the contest. That was a big part of Hardman’s expanded role. It’s fair to say theHman got a bit lucky with that one — though everybody who wins a massive contest like this relies on some luck.
Besides, it’s never a terrible idea to target cheap WRs who have a real role in a Patrick Mahomes offense. It won’t work every time, but it almost always has a shot.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Week 8 NFL DFS QB Picks Breakdown: Tua Tagovailoa in a Prime Spot
Week 8 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Top Picks, Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Settings, Leverage Plays, More
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Bengals-Browns
Week 15 NFL DFS TE Breakdown: Top Picks, Values, and Sleepers on DraftKings and FanDuel
