The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Texans at Broncos
The Broncos are currently 7.5-point favorites for their Monday night matchup against the Texans. Brock Osweiler and company aren’t expected to put up much of a fight, as the Texans’ current implied total of 16.5 points is the lowest in Week 7. The Broncos are currently implied to score 24 points and are looking to snap their two-game losing streak. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler has continued to underwhelm as the Texans’ quarterback. His average of 6.2 yards per attempt is ranked 31st among all quarterbacks and he’s yet to surpass either 275 passing yards or three touchdowns in a single game this season. Don’t expect this to change against the Broncos. Osweiler is priced at $5,100 on DraftKings and is the fourth-lowest rated QB in our Tournament Model.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller hadn’t matched his career average of 4.6 yards per carry once during the first five weeks of the 2016 season. This changed during the Texans’ Week 6 win over the Colts, as he converted his 24 carries into 149 yards – good for an average of 6.21 yards per carry. Miller was especially effective running the ball outside of the tackles, where he averaged 7.4 yards per carry on the night, per PFF. This is a good sign for his Week 7 matchup against the Broncos, as they have allowed an average of 3.05 yards per carry inside the tackles this season but an average of 5.04 yards per carry outside the tackles, per sharpfootballstats.com. Miller will be challenged by Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis, two of PFF’s top-20 linebackers in run defense through six weeks. He’s priced at $6,000 on DK and has seven DK Pro Trends.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue is averaging a strong 5.2 yards per carry this season but won’t be a fantasy option unless Miller misses time.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Nuk was targeted a season-high 15 times against the Colts last week, but he finished with an underwhelming 9-71-0 line. Through six weeks, he ranks 28th among all wide receivers with 14.57 DK points per game. Nuk could struggle to turn things around this week, as wide receivers priced over $5,000 on DK have historically struggled at Mile High:
As our Trends tool shows, wide receivers that meet the aforementioned criteria have posted a -4.75 Plus/Minus with 25 percent Consistency and averaged just 8.59 DK points over the past three seasons. Nuk will have to try to buck this trend against Aqib Talib, PFF’s third-highest graded cornerback through six weeks. Nuk is priced at $6,900 on DK and has the third-lowest projected floor of any wide receiver priced over $6,500.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller said Tuesday that he is looking forward to playing in the Texans’ Week 7 matchup against the Broncos. He was active for the Texans’ Week 6 win over the Colts but played zero snaps and was dressed only in case of an emergency. He practiced fully on Saturday and has been removed the Injury Report.
Fuller has struggled since his hot start to the season, posting a +0.23 Plus/Minus with 33.3 percent Consistency and averaging just 11.53 DraftKings points during his last three games. He’s priced at $5,700 on DK and has a tough matchup against a Broncos defense that has allowed 1.8 points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Jaelen Strong and Braxton Miller
Neither receiver is among the top-80 WRs in fantasy points per target this season. Additionally, neither receiver has gained over 40 receiving yards in a game or scored a touchdown through six weeks. They aren’t recommended fantasy options as long as both Hopkins and Fuller are fully healthy.
TE – C.J. Fiedorowicz
Fiedorowicz secured six of his seven targets for 85 yards and a touchdown last week but is in a timeshare with fellow tight end Ryan Griffin. The TE duo has been targeted a combined 26 times over the past two weeks with both averaging over five targets per game. While this caps both TE’s upside, Fiedorowicz is the better option, as he has four red-zone targets compared to zero for Griffin through six weeks. Fiedorowicz is minimum-priced on DK with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.1 Projected Plus/Minus.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
Siemian threw the ball a career-high 50 times against the Chargers last week but wasn’t able to get much going given how badly this offensive line has played the past few weeks. His three-point projected floor and +0.7 Projected Plus/Minus on DK are the lowest marks among all QBs in Week 7. Considering the Texans defense has allowed 3.2 points below salary-based expectations to QBs over the past 12 months, Siemian is a high-risk, low-reward play for Week 7.
RB – C.J. Anderson
Anderson has just 21 carries in the past two weeks, but he still holds a 56.84 percent rushing share in the past four games and has gotten four rushes inside the 10-yard line. Historically, he has not performed well with less than 12 touches:
However, on paper this looks like a premier bounce-back spot for Anderson; he’s a large home favorite facing a team that has given up the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs in the league (99.8 per game). Recent volume concerns make him a risky cash play, but he could be a nice GPP option on slates that include Monday Night Football. Anderson is our currently the ninth-highest rated RB in our Tournament Model on FD with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Devontae Booker
Coach Gary Kubiak has said this week that Booker could be in line for more touches in Week 7. There should be plenty of production to go around as a home favorite against a Texans team that currently ranks 25th in rush DVOA.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Denver has one of the most concentrated offenses in the league: Over the past four weeks, Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have accounted for 48.98 percent of Denver’s target market share. However, Thomas trails Sanders in target market share (21.09 versus 27.89 percent, respectively), market share of Air Yards (25.11 versus 33.89 percent), and targets inside the 10-yard line (three versus four). Thomas is a low-end GPP play at $7,300 due to subpar QB play and a matchup against a Texans defense this week that has allowed 0.7 points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
He’s emerged as the team’s clear No. 1 receiver this season, as he has 13 more targets than Thomas through six weeks. Still, Sanders has struggled recently after an impressive two-game stretch:
With Siemian under center, Sanders is a more risky play than his target share of 27.89 percent (seventh in the league through his past four games) would lead you to believe. Further, he faces a Texans secondary ranked second in the league against both WR1s and WR2s, according to Football Outsiders.
WR – Jordan Norwood
Norwood had seven targets last week in a game in which Siemian threw the ball 50 times. This only highlights his extremely limited ceiling, as he totaled just 39 yards. Given his low floor and low ceiling, he’s a fringe GPP dart at best.
TE – Virgil Green
Green flopped last week in his return, finishing with a 3-21-0 stat line on four targets. The red-zone looks from the preseason have not carried over, as he has just one in three games; Siemian just doesn’t look to his TEs nearly enough to warrant Green as even a viable punt play. He also has a tough matchup against a Texans defense that has been solid against TEs, allowing o.4 points below salary-based expectations over the past 12 months.
News Updates
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