The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Saints at Chiefs
This game currently has one of the highest Vegas totals of the week at 50 points. The visiting Saints are 6.5-point road dogs implied to score 21.75 points. The Chiefs are heavy home favorites, currently implied for 28.25 points.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
When Brees plays outside of the Superdome, we need to temper our expectations for this New Orleans offense. Since the start of the 2011 season, he’s done significantly worse on the road:
Brees and the Saints are entering this game as big road underdogs, and the Chiefs haven’t been kind to opposing quarterbacks lately. Outside of Ben Roethlisberger‘s 36.9-point DK performance in Week 4, the Chiefs have allowed just 10.6 points to opposing QBs in their other four contests.
RB – Mark Ingram
Ingram’s inconsistency has made him a difficult player to roster, but his usage — he’s getting 53.6 percent of the snaps and 69.8 percent of the RB touches — warrants weekly consideration. The Chiefs have been an average team against opposing running backs this year, giving up the 12th-most rushing yards and 14th-most fantasy points on DK. Ingram has a high number of DK Pro Trends in his favor (nine) and many of our Pro Player Models rate him highly given his low salary. If New Orleans doesn’t get behind and ditch the run, Ingram could potentially turn in a solid performance at a very attractive $5,400 price tag.
RB – Travaris Cadet
Receiving backs have fared well against the Chiefs so far this season; Danny Woodhead was able to put up 23 DK points and Bilal Powell finished with 12.1 points. Cadet has seen at least five targets in two of his last three games. With Vegas projecting a large lead for Kansas City, there’s the potential we could see a lot of Cadet in the second half of this game.
RB – Tim Hightower
Neither Hightower nor John Kuhn were much of a factor in last week’s shootout. Given the matchup and Vegas data, that looks to be the case again this week.
WR – Brandin Cooks
Cooks will face a banged-up Marcus Peters, who’s dealing with a shoulder injury but currently grades as a top-12 CB on the year, per PFF. Cooks already has several long receptions this season and has big-play potential in this game, especially if Peters is less than 100 percent. Cooks has averaged a steady 8.2 targets per game and continues to dominate the Saints’ market share of Air Yards:
Cooks’ seven Pro Trends on FanDuel and projected ceiling of 17.4 points could certainly be worth chasing in GPPs, given his low FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent.
WR – Willie Snead
It’s been an odd start for Snead so far in 2016, but a matchup with the Chiefs’ slot cornerback, Steven Nelson, may be just what the doctor ordered. Nelson currently grades as PFF’s 77th-ranked cornerback and the Chiefs have given up some big games this year to opposing slot receivers: Doug Baldwin put up an 8-164-1 stat line and Larry Fitzgerald recently went for 6-81-2. Snead’s slow start may lower his potential ownership; he makes for a nice bargain play on DK given his $5,900 salary.
WR – Michael Thomas
Thomas has quietly been putting together a string of terrific performances: He’s had three straight games with a touchdown and has been targeted 25 times over that span. He has a great shot to keep it going this week against Phillip Gaines, the lowest-ranked cornerback on Kansas City’s starting unit. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel by +5.37 points this year at 83 percent Consistency. He’s in play in tournaments again.
TE – Coby Fleener
Fleener has seen consistent targets this year, averaging seven per game. Unfortunately, Kansas City has been tough on opposing tight ends: They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position on DK. Their -0.3 Opponent Plus/Minus to the position is low, but they have allowed big games to Greg Olsen (26.2 points) and Jimmy Graham (24.0 points). There is hidden upside here; Fleener has a 14.6-point projected DK ceiling.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
It turns out that, even in a premium matchup against a historically bad Raiders defense, Alex Smith is still Alex Smith. Unsurprisingly, he’s last in the NFL in Average Depth of Pass (7.1 yards) and failed to meet salary-based expectations for the third time in five weeks on DK:
That said, Smith is in a great spot again: He is a large home favorite and gets an elite matchup against a Saints defense that has the worst Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to QBs in the last year and ranks 26th in pass DVOA in 2016, per Football Outsiders. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate and comes in as the second-highest rated QB in the Adam Levitan Model on FD. He’s not fun to roster, but the matchup and price suggest he’s someone worth considering.
RB – Spencer Ware
In the Chiefs’ first game off their bye, Ware out-snapped Charles 40 to 15. Ware may have forced a permanent time-share because of his stellar play; he has the fifth-highest Plus/Minus of any RB in 2016:
Ware is the highest-rated RB in our Tournament Model on FD this week. He continues to be one of the best GPP plays on the board every week and could see depressed ownership with the return of Charles. This is a dream matchup: The Chiefs are large home favorites going against a Saints team that ranks 30th in rush DVOA this year.
RB – Jamaal Charles
The Saints’ linebackers have struggled in pass coverage this year, giving up receiving games of 6-43-0 to Melvin Gordon, 5-55-1 to Devonta Freeman, and 3-47-0 to Tevin Coleman. Charles is a very volatile play as his volume is tough to project, but he is in a premium matchup against a Saints defense that has given up the most FD points per game this season (31.2). He is currently the second-highest rated RB on FD in the Bales Model at $6,800.
Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Charles reportedly experienced swelling in his knee on Friday. He was added to the Injury Report and is officially listed as questionable. If Charles doesn’t play this week, Charcandrick West would serve as the No. 2 back.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
Although Maclin struggled last game, he remains a focal point of this Chiefs passing game. Maclin is a strong GPP play: He’s currently the second-highest rated WR in the FD Tournament Model and faces a Saints defense that ranks 28th, per DVOA. He currently boasts a 97 percent FD Bargain Rating and is at 13 to 16 percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million. Wide receivers with similar point projections have historically performed above salary-based expectations:
WR – Chris Conley
The Chiefs want to control the ball and establish the run. That’s not good news for Conley, the team’s current No. 2 WR. Conley’s a risky play, as it’s tough to imagine Smith supporting more than one WR in the passing game consistently. He has a low projected FD floor of 4.1 points. However, he’s averaging 5.4 targets per game; that may be enough to meet value against this awful Saints defense.
TE – Travis Kelce
Kelce is a key member of the Kansas City passing game. He is tied for third in the league in red-zone targets (eight) and leads the team with a 33.3 percent target share in the red zone. He is the number-one rated player at the position in the Adam Levitan Model on FD; he boasts the second-highest projected floor (7.5 points) and ceiling (14.5 points), and he has a 93 percent FD Bargain Rating. Kelce is a weekly GPP option and faces a Saints defense that is 25th in the league versus TEs, per DVOA.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
