The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Redskins at Lions
The Lions host the Redskins as one-point favorites in a game with the third-highest Vegas total on the slate (49). The Lions are implied to score 25 points and the visiting Redskins are implied to score 24 points.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric, the Lions are the worst defense in the NFL and the second-worst team defending the pass. They have allowed the 10th-most passing yards (1,368), most passing touchdowns (14), and the third-most FanDuel points per game (23.4) to quarterbacks this season. Cousins has attempted the third-most passes (30) in the red zone and is tied for the NFL lead in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line (17) this season. Per our Trends tool, Cousins has produced a +6.27 Plus/Minus with 81.3 percent Consistency (in 16 games) when playing as an underdog of less than six points. Cousins is a great play in guaranteed prize pools this week, particularly on FanDuel, where he is currently the third-rated quarterback in the Bales Player Model.
RB – Matt Jones
Perhaps Jones heard all that noise about Rob Kelley (five carries for 59 yards) eating into his work load last week, because he took it to an Eagles defense (135 yards and one touchdown) that had previously been allowing just 54.75 rushing yards per game. This week, Jones gets a Lions defense that has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards (563) this season. The Lions are the only team in the league that has not allowed a rushing touchdown — an unsustainable trend. Jones’ 13 red-zone carries this season rank 10th in the NFL. Jones is a GPP play on DraftKings, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating this week and is currently a top-10 rated running back in CSURAM88’s Player Model.
RB – Chris Thompson
Thompson got more playing time (36 snaps) last week than he has all season. However, even with nine carries and three targets, he’s still totaled just 18.35 percent of the rushes and 9.77 percent of the targets over the past four weeks. He’s a GPP-only flyer.
WR – Pierre Garcon
Garcon leads all Redskins wide receivers with 43 targets this season. He has been targeted an average of 7.4 times per game over the past five weeks. Detroit has allowed the eighth-most receptions (82), sixth-most receiving yards (1,090), and sixth-most DK points per game (42.6) to receivers this season. Garcon has a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he is currently the seventh-rated wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model. With FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent, Garcon is an excellent stacking mate with Cousins in the Millionaire Maker this week. He is also currently the fifth-highest rated player in our Cash Model for DK; he’s a solid play in both formats.
WR – DeSean Jackson
The Lions are the worst team in the NFL defending opposing WR1s this season (per FO). Jackson has averaged 6.5 targets per game over the past four weeks, but he has eclipsed 55 yards just once in that time frame. Per our Matchups tool, Jackson will spend some time covered by Darius Slay, who is the Lions’ best cornerback and is currently the fourth-ranked corner in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Jackson is a boom-or-bust GPP play.
Jackson (shoulder) is officially questionable, but he practiced on Friday and is expected to play.
WR – Jamison Crowder
Crowder has scored a touchdown in four of six games this season. He ranks third in the NFL with nine targets in the red zone and his four targets inside the 10-yard line ranks eighth. Per our Matchups tool, Crowder has the added benefit of running routes on Detroit slot-corner Quandre Diggs; his awful 43.3 PFF grade leaves him as the 101st-ranked player at his position. Crowder also leads the NFL in punt return yards. Using him in a contrarian correlation stack with the Washington D/ST could be a potentially profitable play on DK this week, especially if Jordan Reed is out again.
TE – Vernon Davis
Jordan Reed (concussion) is out for Week 7. In Reed’s absence last week, Davis was targeted four times and caught a touchdown. He currently has a +4.3 Projected Plus/Minus on DK.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford has now thrown for three-plus touchdowns in consecutive weeks; he’s currently playing at a very high level. His average of 0.51 fantasy points per dropback is the fifth-highest rate among all quarterbacks through six weeks. Don’t expect Stafford to slow down this week at Ford Field, as he’s posted a +4.0 DK Plus/Minus at home over the past three seasons compared to a +0.4 Plus/Minus on the road. The difference isn’t exactly Drew Brees-like, but it’s a fairly significant home-split advantage to note. Stafford is priced at $6,400 on DraftKings and has a +3.82 Projected Plus/Minus. He has a good matchup against a Redskins defense that has allowed a 50.53 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick (ankle) is out for Week 7. Get your PPR goodness elsewhere.
RB – Zach Zenner, Dwayne Washington, and Justin Forsett
Zenner led the Lions’ rushing attack with 58 yards on 14 carries last week; Washington and Forsett combined for just 11 yards on seven carries. Zenner was the clear leader but didn’t necessarily do enough to seize the starting job, as all three backs are still averaging under 3.3 yards per carry this season. Zenner and Washington should split goal-line touches. Due to the uncertainty surrounding their carries and their lack of production thus far, none of the three backs are recommended fantasy options, even against a Redskins defense that is the second-worst in the league in rush DVOA.
Washington (ankle) is officially questionable but expected to play.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones has struggled recently, failing to provide the type of consistency that most expected from the No. 1 receiver on the Lions’ pass-happy offense:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a -4.19 Plus/Minus with zero percent Consistency and averaged just 11.8 DK points over the past three games. He’s still ranked among the top-20 receivers in the league in fantasy points and yards per target, but he may have to wait another week for a bounce-back game, as he’ll likely be seeing a lot of Josh Norman – PFF’s 10th-best cover corner this season. It’s not yet known if Norman will shadow Jones on every play, but look out if he does: Norman allowed over 50 receiving yards just once in 2015. Jones is priced at $7,700 on FanDuel with an 88 percent Bargain Rating but has the second-lowest projected floor of any wide receiver priced over $7,500 on FD.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate finally broke out last week and put up an 8-165-1 line against an overmatched Rams secondary. His 10 targets were a season-high and the Lions appeared to make an effort to get him the ball with more room to run. After having an aDOT of 9.8 yards through the first five weeks of the season, Tate averaged an aDOT of 5.6 yards in Week 6 – just 0.2 fewer yards than his aDOT in 2015, when he averaged 13.15 DK points per game. He’s priced at $4,900 on DK with eight Pro Trends and faces a Redskins defense that has allowed 2.8 points above salary-based expectations to WRs over the past 12 months.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Eric Ebron‘s absence in Week 6, as he converted a season-high nine targets into an 8-60-1 line. His six red-zone targets are tied for the second-most on the team and he has earned weekly fantasy consideration when the Lions are down a receiver. Boldin is priced at $4,000 on DK with an 87 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.93 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Clay Harbor
Eric Ebron (ankle, knee) is out for Week 7. Harbor filled in for Ebron last week and was targeted just once. He shouldn’t be considered as a fantasy option this week.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
