The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Bears at Packers
The Packers will be 7.5-point favorites Thursday night when they host the rival Bears at Lambeau Field. The Bears aren’t expected to be able to get much going on offense, as they’re currently implied to score just 19.25 points – tied for the second-lowest total of Week 7. The Packers are currently implied to score 26.75 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field for the latest edition of #TNF.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brian Hoyer
Jay Cutler didn’t practice on Tuesday and is doubtful for Thursday night. Hoyer will once again be under center. He was able to reach 300 yards passing for his fourth-consecutive game during the Bears’ Week 6 loss to the Jaguars. While Hoyer has played better than most anticipated, the Bears are still averaging just 16.8 points per game – the second-worst mark in the league this season. He’s priced at $5,900 on DraftKings and has a tough matchup against a Packers defense that has sacked opposing quarterbacks on 8.28 percent of their snaps over the past 12 months thanks to the devastating trio of Nick Perry, Julius Peppers, and Clay Matthews. Hoyer is among the five lowest-rated quarterbacks in both our Tournament and Cash Player Models.
RB – Jordan Howard
Howard handled only 65 percent of the Bears’ running back snaps during Week 6. However, he was the go-to back during crunch time and the move likely had more to do with his struggles – he had just 34 yards on 15 carries – than a demotion. Still, Howard has a very tough matchup against a Packers run defense that has allowed a league-low 3.0 yards per carry this season, although they were gashed for 150-plus yards by Ezekiel Elliott in Week 6. Howard is priced at $7,000 on FD with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and has seven FD Pro Trends.
RB – Ka’Deem Carey
Carey provided a big spark to the offense last week, rushing for 50 yards on just nine carries. Whether or not this workload continues remains to be seen, but he still shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option this week against a Packers defense that has allowed just 72.4 rushing yards per game this season.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery was finally fed the ball last week and he responded with his most productive game of the season. He converted his 13 targets into seven receptions for 93 yards, although he still hasn’t found the end zone in 2016. However, Jeffery may not have to wait much longer to resume his fantasy dominance if the Bears are planning to start feeding him double-digit targets per game:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Jeffery has averaged a 7.88-116.29-0.59 line in his 17 career games with 10-plus targets. He’s priced at $7,300 on FD with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and faces a Packers defense that doesn’t have a cornerback graded higher than 81st this season by PFF. Cornerbacks Sam Shields (concussion), Damarious Randall (groin), and Quinten Rollins (groin) have all been ruled out for Thursday night.
WR – Cameron Meredith
Meredith has been on fire since taking over for Kevin White:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +20.71 Plus/Minus and averaged 27.95 DK points over the past two weeks. Meredith has averaged 13.5 targets per game during this span and hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down. Receivers who have had a monthly spike in salary over $1,000 on DK with a similar salary and target average have historically excelled:
There have been only 10 instances of the aforementioned criteria over the past three seasons, but the group of matching receivers has posted a +4.20 Plus/Minus with 70 percent Consistency and averaged 17.16 DK points. These are all good signs that point toward Meredith being more than just a flash in the pan. He’s priced at $5,900 on DK and has a +3.3 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Josh Bellamy
Eddie Royal has been ruled out after re-aggravating his toe during the team’s Week 6 loss to the Jaguars. Bellamy will fill in as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver. He offers very little upside considering he’s never surpassed 50 yards in a game during his five-year career; he isn’t a recommended fantasy option this week.
TE – Zach Miller
Miller is questionable for Thursday night but is expected to play. He had a season-high 10 targets last week and is more involved in the Bears offense than ever. Miller is now tied for fifth among all tight ends with six red-zone targets on the season and has a good expected game flow this week that could lead to the Bears trailing and passing. Miller is priced at $3,800 on DraftKings with seven Pro Trends and faces a Packers defense that has allowed 2.1 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers struggled during the Packers’ Week 6 loss to the Cowboys even with plenty of time to throw. He was pressured on just 13 percent of his dropbacks (per PFF) and has actually completed his pass attempts when pressured at a top-10 rate among all quarterbacks this season. Rodgers’ struggles through six weeks are more due to his inability to make anything happen down the field. He’s completing just 28.6 percent of his passes thrown 20-plus yards in the air this season and this has resulted in him averaging a career-low 6.5 yards per attempt – the fifth-worst mark among all quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season. Rodgers will look to get back on track in Week 7 against the Bears; he’s averaged 26.41 fantasy points against them since 2011. He’s priced at $7,100 on DraftKings and faces a Bears defense that has allowed 2.6 points above salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
RB – Knile Davis
With Eddie Lacy ruled out, Davis could immediately see carries during the Packers’ Thursday night matchup against the Bears. He averaged just 2.6 yards per carry last season but is still just 25 years old. Davis has historically played well when given a decent-sized role in the offense, as evidenced by his 15.77 PPR average in seven career games with 10 or more carries. He’ll look to improve a Packers offense that has scored just two touchdowns on the ground this season – tied for the second-fewest in the league.
WR – Ty Montgomery
Montgomery converted a career-high 13 touches into 104 yards during the Packers’ Week 6 loss to the Cowboys. He frequently lined up in the backfield and was actually more productive from that position. Montgomery caught six passes for 52 yards when lined up as a running back, compared to four receptions for 46 yards when lined up as a receiver, per NFL.com’s Alex Gelhar. He could lose snaps at running back to the newly-acquired Davis, although Davis isn’t much of a receiving threat; he’s caught three balls in a single game only twice in his entire career. The minimum-priced Montgomery will look to break through a Bears defense that has allowed just two runs of 20-plus yards this season.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson’s seven targets last week tied a season-low, as he was mostly locked up by the Cowboys secondary. He has a good chance to rebound this week in a matchup that he has historically thrived in:
As our Trends tool shows, Nelson has posted a +7.65 Plus/Minus and averaged 24.85 DK points in his last eight games as a touchdown or more favorite. He’s priced at $8,200 on FD with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and could see a lot of Tracy Porter, PFF’s 81st-highest graded cornerback through six weeks.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb has now been targeted 11 times in back-to-back games after not surpassing eight targets once during the first four weeks of the season. He’s responded to the increased workload with an average line of 8-80.5-0.5, but he could have a tough time replicating that production in a matchup that he has historically struggled in:
Per our Trends tool, Cobb has posted a -0.81 Plus/Minus with 30.8 percent Consistency and averaged 14.54 DK points in his 13 games as a seven-plus point favorite over the past three seasons. Nelson has thrived in those situations, but his production has come at the expense of Cobb in the past. Cobb is priced at $5,800 on DK and has a -1.2 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Davante Adams and Jeff Janis
Adams hasn’t practiced all week due to a concussion and is questionable to play Thursday night. If he is unable to play, Janis is expected to take over as the team’s No. 3 receiver. Janis has been targeted more than four times just once in his career, but he definitely took advantage of the opportunity: He posted a 7-145-2 line on 11 targets against the Cardinals in the 2015 playoffs. He’s minimum-priced on DraftKings and has an 8.6-point projected ceiling.
TE – Richard Rodgers
Rodgers has gained just 21 yards in the past two weeks as the Packers’ featured tight end. He’s now averaging a 2.43-22-0.14 split in his seven games with three-plus targets and both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb in the lineup. Rodgers is still cheap on DK at $2,800 with an 86 percent Bargain Rating, but he has minimal upside and a tough matchup against Adrian Amos — PFF’s 10th-highest graded cover safety this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
