NFL DFS Week 7 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: CeeDee Lamb Breakout Incoming?

NFL Week 7 features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

This week’s main slate is missing both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, so it feels a bit thinner than usual at the top. Fortunately, a few other top quarterbacks are in elite matchups, so there’s still a good bit to choose from.

Joe Burrow stands out as the best of the bench. He’s had an up-and-down start to his year, but he’s coming off his best game of the season last week. He racked up 300 passing yards and three scores, and he added 25 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He finished with 35.5 DraftKings points vs. the Saints, which was his top mark of the year.

Burrow draws one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Falcons. Burrow’s biggest issue is that his offensive line struggles against good pass rushes, but that’s not an issue with Atlanta. They have just eight sacks through the first six weeks, and they rank dead last in adjusted sack rate.

On the back end, the Falcons are going to be down two cornerbacks this week. That includes their top corner in Casey Hayward, so Burrow should be able to shred this unit.

Value

Geno Smith came crashing back to reality last week, at least from a fantasy perspective. He finished with just 12.68 DraftKings points vs. the Cardinals, snapping a streak of three straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. However, Smith still ranks second at the quarterback position in Pro Football Focus grade, so he’s been excellent for the most part.

He stands out from a Vegas perspective on this slate. He’ll take on the Chargers, and the 50-point total is the top mark on the slate. The Chargers haven’t been a great matchup – Smith owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.6 on DraftKings – but the Chargers are missing stud pass-rusher Joey Bosa. The Chargers have also allowed at least 24 points in four of their past five games, with the lone exception being against the Broncos.

Ultimately, Smith grades out as one of the best values at the position, ranking first in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus in THE BLITZ.

Quick Hits

Justin Herbert has plenty of appeal on the other side of that matchup. The Seahawks have played in a ton of shootouts this season, which makes sense given their strong offense and terrible defense. They played well last week vs. the Cardinals, but they ranked near the bottom of the league in virtually every defensive metric before that matchup. They still rank just 26th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, so Herbert has nice upside in this spot.

With Allen and Hurts out of the picture, Lamar Jackson has the top ceiling at the position by a comfortable margin. His rushing ability gives him a 40-point ceiling every time he takes the field, and his ceiling projection leads the slate by more than six points in THE BLITZ.

Can you trust Dak Prescott in his return to action? He has a great matchup, and Matt Martin makes this case in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

Leonard Fournette has been an absolute workhorse for the Buccaneers recently. He’s coming off 21 carries and six targets last week – which he converted into 22.1 DraftKings points – and he had 14 carries and 11 targets two weeks ago.

Fournette’s combination of receiving volume and touchdown upside is extremely valuable for fantasy purposes. He has a 14.6% target market share for the year, the 10th-highest mark at the position, and he has five carries from inside for the five-yard line. Not many players check both of those boxes.

Additionally, Fournette takes the field this week in a dream spot. The Buccaneers are listed as 13-point favorites against the Panthers, and large favorites tend to dominate at running back. He’s simply too cheap at $7,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 71%.

Value

Kenneth Walker III made the first start of his career last week, and he didn’t disappoint for fantasy purposes. He turned 21 carries into 97 yards and a score, and he added two catches for 13 yards in the passing game. He wasn’t quite as efficient as he was in the previous week, but he put his long speed on display for the second-straight game.

Walker has the potential to be a massive home-run hitter. He blazed a 4.38 40-yard dash at the 2022 NFL Combine, which puts him in the 98th percentile at the position (per Player Profiler).

He should have plenty of opportunities to put his talent on display vs. the Chargers. They’ve been far weaker against the run than the pass, ranking just 22nd in rush defense DVOA. For some reason, Walker’s price has barely budged on DraftKings since taking over as the starter, so he’s basically a must-play in cash games.

Quick Hits

Josh Jacobs is another very strong option at the position this week. He’s historically dominated the rushing workload for the Raiders, but he’s starting to become a lot more involved in the passing attack. He’s been targeted on at least 25% of his routes in back-to-back weeks, and if he can add that to his fantasy profile, there’s nothing stopping him from becoming an RB1 for fantasy purposes. Jacobs isn’t currently priced that way on DraftKings, despite owning an elite matchup vs. the Texans.

Breece Hall continues to provide massive value for DFS players. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, and he’s scored at least 23.1 DraftKings points in each of his past two outings. He’s averaged 17.1 expected DraftKings points per game per PFF, which is tied for the ninth-best mark at running back.

Most of the top running backs on this slate are better values on DraftKings, but Joe Mixon stands out as the exception. He’s priced at just $7,400, making him -$1,000 cheaper than Fournette, -$200 cheaper than Hall, and just $100 more expensive than Walker. Mixon continues to carry a massive workload for the Bengals, and he ranks first at the position in expected fantasy points per game. That makes him an elite value.

Most of the high-priced running backs have been under-owned recently, and Derrick Henry could fit that description in Week 7. Matt Martin breaks down the Big Dog in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

With Prescott back in the lineup, the Cowboys’ passing attack is set to receive a massive boost in value. Cooper Rush held his own from a win-loss perspective, but he’s simply not the same caliber of fantasy player. He averaged just 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt, while Prescott has been at 8.0 or higher in each of the past three years.

That’s great news for CeeDee Lamb. He’s been one of the busiest receivers in the league this season, ranking first in the league with a 33.5% target market share. He’s also racked up 39.1% of the Cowboys’ air yards, which is the seventh-highest mark in the league. Overall, he’s had at least eight targets in all six games, and he’s cracked double digits in four of them. With Prescott back under-center, those targets should become a lot more fruitful.

Lamb also draws a fantastic matchup vs. the Lions. They rank dead-last in pass defense DVOA this season, and they’re 26th against No. 1 receivers. Lamb leads all players in projected Plus/Minus per THE BLITZ, which is rare for a player with a $7,700 price tag.

Value

Can things get any worse for D.J. Moore? I certainly hope not. He’s been basically a disaster this season, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five of six games, and he’s coming off just 2.2 DraftKings points in his last outing. That last game was with P.J. Walker at quarterback, who will draw the start again this week vs. the Bucs.

Regardless of who has been under center, Moore has at least still been highly involved in the passing attack. He’s posted a 25.3% target market share, the top mark on the team, and he’s also racked up 37% of the team’s air yards. If you haven’t heard, the only other two players with a market share of at least 15% on the Panthers – Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson – now play for different teams.

Add in the fact that the Panthers are massive 13-point underdogs, and Moore could be extremely busy on Sunday. It remains to be seen if those targets will actually lead to any fantasy points, but there are reasons to buy low on him vs. the Bucs.

Quick Hits

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have both been excellent for the Seahawks this season. Lockett started the year hot, but Metcalf has taken over as the top target recently. He’s had at least seven targets in each of his past four games, and he has at least 10 in two of them. Lockett is also questionable this week, so Metcalf could be even busier than usual. He would become one of the strongest options at the position if Lockett is ultimately ruled out, and he’s worth consideration even if he’s active.

The 49ers are going to have to try to keep up with the Chiefs this week, which means their offense could be a bit more pass-happy than usual. That’s good news for Deebo Samuel, who stands out as significantly underpriced on FanDuel. His $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and his 3.4 Opponent Plus/Minus is one of the top marks at the position.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been removed from the Lions’ injury report, so he should be full healthy for the first time in weeks. St. Brown was phenomenal to start the year, so this could be a solid buy-low opportunity.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

Mark Andrews is currently questionable with a knee injury, but he officially returned to practice on Friday. He also told reporters that he’s “ready to roll,” so it seems like he’ll be in the lineup vs. the Browns.

As long as Andrews is active, he’s the clear top tight end in fantasy at this point. He’s served as the Ravens’ primary pass-catcher, racking up 33.3% of the team’s targets. That trails only Lamb among all pass-catchers this season. Unlike most tight ends, Andrews also does plenty of work downfield, garnering 38.6% of the team’s air yards. Kyle Pitts is the only other tight end in the league above 25.9%, and his mark still trails Andrews by a significant margin.

Andrews’ combination of target volume and depth basically makes him a stud wide receiver that’s capable of being rostered at tight end. That’s a tough combination to beat in fantasy purposes. He owns the top median and ceiling projections at the position in THE BLITZ, beating out the higher-priced Travis Kelce by a decent margin.

Value

It’s a good week for value at the tight end position. Greg Dulcich is priced at the minimum on DraftKings, and he emerged as a big part of the Broncos’ passing attack in his first start of the year. He had just three targets – one of which he turned into a touchdown – but his 81% route participation was promising. It’s tough to trust anyone in the Broncos’ passing game at the moment, but Dulcich clearly has the potential to pay off his current salary.

However, I’m leaning toward Cade Otton as the preferred punt play at the position. He’s just $200 more expensive at $2,700, and he should serve as the Broncos’ top tight end this week. Cameron Brate went down with a concussion in Week 6, and Otton had a 91% route participation and a 14% target share with Brate out of the lineup in Week 5. He finished with 10.3 DraftKings points in that outing, and you’ll gladly take that production from a punt tight end.

Quick Hits

Kyle Pitts scored his first receiving touchdown of the year last week, but he remains well-below expectation in terms of fantasy points. He’s averaged -3.0 DraftKings points below expectations through the first six weeks, making him the fourth “unluckiest” player at the position. The Falcons might need to pass the ball a bit more this week if they fall behind the Bengals, so maybe this is the spot where he truly breaks out.

David Njoku is one of the better pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%. He’s been much more involved recently after a slow start to the year, racking up at least six targets in four straight weeks. He has just one touchdown over that time frame, but he’s still averaged 11.43 FanDuel points in those contests.

Noah Fant has started to become a featured option for the Seahawks. He’s had a 59% route participation in back-to-back weeks, and he’s been targeted on at least 28% of his routes in both contests. He’s another potential value option at the position, and he shouldn’t command much ownership in one of the best fantasy games of the week.

Roster Construction

Balanced lineups have ruled the day recently on DraftKings, and Week 7 feels like another week for a balanced cash lineup. You could consider paying up for Andrews at tight end or Fournette at running back, but it’s going to leave you with a hole somewhere.

The first thing I’m doing is plugging in Jacobs, Hall, and Walker in my two running spots and flex. That trio is tough to beat from a value perspective, owning the top three projected Plus/Minus marks in THE BLITZ. All three players also have a considerable ceiling, ranking in the top nine at the position.

After that, I’m spending up just a bit for Lamb as my WR1. Getting Prescott back should be a huge development for his fantasy value, as should his matchup vs. the Lions.

Plugging in Geno at QB leaves plenty of room for the rest of your lineup. You can use another receiver in the $6K range – Metcalf, Chris Godwin, and Brandin Cooks all fit the description – and that leaves enough for Moore or Hunter Renfrow at WR3.

The lineup on FanDuel looks pretty similar. Mixon and Fournette replace Hall and Jacobs at running back, who aren’t nearly as good of a value on that site. Metcalf also becomes the clear choice at WR2 given his 92% Bargain Rating.

At tight end, Dalton Schultz becomes one of the top value options. His $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.7 on FanDuel. I have no problem using him in cash games if he’s active and he shows up in the optimal FanDuel lineup in projected points per THE BLITZ.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!