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Week 7 Fantasy WR Breakdown: Allen Lazard, Least But Not Last

The Week 7 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 20, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Odds as of Friday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Tyler Lockett: $6,600 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • Larry Fitzgerald: $6,100 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel
  • T.Y. Hilton: $5,900 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
  • Kenny Golladay: $5,800 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel

Tyler Lockett: Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens, 49.5 Over/Under

UPDATE (Oct. 19): Ravens CB Jimmy Smith (knee) is expected not to play.

Last year, Lockett had a magically efficient season. He turned 57 receptions and 13 carries into 1,034 yards and 10 touchdowns. He produced a perfect QB rating of 158.3 for Russell Wilson on his 70 targets. He had a league-high 77.8% catch rate on passes of at least 20 yards (per Pro Football Focus).

This year, he’s had something of a mixed campaign.

  • Week 1 (vs. Bengals): 10.9 FanDuel points, 1-44-1 receiving on two targets
  • Week 2 (at Steelers): 12.9 FanDuel points, 10-79-0 receiving on 12 targets
  • Week 3 (vs. Saints): 26.9 FanDuel points, 11-154-1 receiving on 14 targets
  • Week 4 (at Cardinals): 7.1 FanDuel points, 4-51-0 receiving on four targets
  • Week 5 (vs. Rams): 12.3 FanDuel points, 4-51-1 receiving on four targets, -8 rushing yards
  • Week 6 (at Browns): 10.3 FanDuel points, 5-75-0 receiving on five targets, three rushing yards

Lockett leads the team with 41 targets, 35 receptions and 454 yards receiving, and he’s No. 2 with 461 air yards, 112 yards after the catch and three receiving touchdowns.

But he has just one top-12 fantasy performance this year (per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer).

There’s nothing wrong with 13.4 FanDuel points per game, and Lockett has provided value with his +4.54 Plus/Minus. He’s hit salary-based expectations in five of six games this year. But Lockett is simply not seeing enough volume each week to be a consistent high-end producer, which means that he’s risky for cash games.

For tournaments, though, Lockett is viable because of his efficiency and play-making ability. Since last season, he’s had an 82.1% catch rate and 11.1% touchdown rate to go along with his 13.2 yards per target in 23 games (including playoffs). Lockett is No. 1 with a 9.8 target quality rating (per Player Profiler). With numbers like that, all it takes is a little luck or a little more volume, and Lockett could have a 120-yard, two-touchdown performance in any given week.

His matchup against the Ravens is intriguing, given that their secondary is in flux. The Ravens are No. 21 in pass defense (12.9% DVOA, per Football Outsiders), but they have been No. 2 against opposing No. 1 wide receivers (-38.4% DVOA), thanks primarily to the shutdown play of cornerback Marlon Humphrey.

And over the past two weeks, for the first time in his career, Humphrey has shadowed receivers into the slot — first JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 5 and then Tyler Boyd in Week 6. Although he allowed 3-49-1 receiving on three targets to JuJu, last week Humphrey shut Boyd down, allowing just one reception for one yard on five targets.

But I’m not sure how much stock I want to put into these two games. The Steelers and Bengals are a combined 1-10, and both games were played against backup-level quarterbacks in Mason Rudolph and Andy Dalton (#burn).

And there’s a difference between strategically shadowing in the slot for 47.9% of your snaps for a couple of games and playing there on a regular basis — and Humphrey might be the team’s full-time slot corner as of this week.

Right cornerback Jimmy Smith (knee) has been out since Week 1, but he practiced on Wednesday on a limited basis and might return against the Seahawks. And on Tuesday the Ravens traded for cornerback Marcus Peters, who is almost exclusively an outside corner. I expect he will settle in on the left side, where he distinguished himself as an All-Pro defender for the Chiefs in his first three seasons.

So that will push Humphrey into the slot, where the Ravens are without starter Tavon Young (neck, injured reserve).

Humphrey is a good corner. Across his three-year career, he has held opposing receivers to a 49.2% catch rate: In theory, Humphrey should have the edge in his matchup against Lockett. But if he has to play almost all of his snaps in the slot, where Lockett has run 69.7% of his routes this year, he could struggle as he adjusts.

Lockett is a slot savant. Against a defender playing out of position — even a good defender — all it takes is a couple of plays for Lockett to get loose and catch a deep touchdown. And that’s especially the case since the Ravens are without starting safety Tony Jefferson (knee, IR) and fill-in safety DeShon Elliott (knee, IR).

And the Ravens have struggled this year against slot receivers: The five best pass-catching performances they’ve allowed have all come from players who saw most of their action in the slot.

  • Jarvis Landry (Week 4): 20.7 FanDuel points, 8-167-0 receiving on 10 targets
  • Mecole Hardman (Week 3): 17.4 FanDuel points, 2-97-1 receiving on five targets
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (Week 5): 15.0 FanDuel points, 7-75-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Christian Kirk (Week 2): 14.4 FanDuel points, 6-114-0 receiving on eight targets
  • Larry Fitzgerald (Week 2): 12.9 FanDuel points, 5-104-0 receiving on 11 targets

Against an out-of-position corner in a defense that has been vulnerable to slot receivers, Lockett has the underappreciated potential to go off.

Lockett is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner Model for FanDuel, where he has an elite 98% Bargain Rating.

Larry Fitzgerald: Arizona Cardinals (+3) at New York Giants, 50.5 O/U

UPDATE (Oct. 19): RB David Johnson (ankle) and WR Christian Kirk (ankle) are game-time decisions.

The aged Fitz leads the Cardinals with 52 targets, 35 receptions, 427 yards receiving and 502 air yards. He hasn’t been a high-upside player, but he’s been as reliable as any receiver in the league with his 12.0 FanDuel points per game, +4.96 Plus/Minus and 83.3% Consistency Rating.

In only one game this year has Fitz had fewer than seven targets.

He hasn’t been highly efficient with his targets.

On a per-game basis, he is No. 10 with 15.2 expected fantasy points but No. 112 with -0.2 fantasy points over expectation (per RotoViz Screener).

That’s just the way it is with Fitz: He’s no longer an efficient player. But few receivers have more than his 8.7 targets per game.

Fitz has one of the best matchups of the week. The Giants are incredibly flawed on defense. They’re No. 32 in the league with a 38.7 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus), and they have allowed opposing wide receivers to score the fourth-most FanDuel points with 36.1 per game.

Some of the biggest games the Giants have allowed have come from receivers who played primarily in the slot against them.

  • Randall Cobb (Week 1): 14.9 FanDuel points, 4-69-1 receiving on five targets
  • Cole Beasley (Week 2): 10.3 FanDuel points, 4-83-0 receiving on four targets
  • Adam Thielen (Week 5): 28.5 FanDuel points, 7-130-2 receiving on eight targets
  • Julian Edelman (Week 6): 15.8 FanDuel points, 9-113-0 receiving on 15 targets

Fitz has an especially strong matchup in the slot against cornerbacks Grant Haley and presumably Antonio Hamilton. (Given that the Cardinals are the league’s only team to use a four-wide set as their standard package, there’s sometimes uncertainty about whom opposing teams will use as their No. 4 corner.)

Haley is a second-year undrafted player who owns a 45.8 PFF coverage grade and has allowed an 82.1% catch rate this year. If he were a plate or a cup or a piece of flatware, he’d be disposable.

And Hamilton is even worse as the team’s reserve corner: A four-year undrafted vet, Hamilton has just 74 career coverage snaps to his name. In Week 1, he allowed a 7-77-0 receiving line on seven targets: He hasn’t played since.

And if the Giants opt not to go with Hamilton, they might use Corey Ballentine, a sixth-round rookie with only 10 defensive snaps of NFL experience.

Against such players, Fitz legitimately could have a 10-100-1 performance. And even if Fitz doesn’t have a blowup game, his floor makes him a viable mid-priced option in cash games.

Fitz is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +4.70 Projected Plus/Minus and 98% Bargain Rating.

Photo credit: USAToday Sports. Pictured: T.Y. Hilton

T.Y. Hilton: Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. Houston Texans, 47.5 O/U

UPDATE (Oct. 19): WR Parris Campbell (abdominal) is out. LG Quenton Nelson (hip) is questionable but tentatively expected to play.

In Week 5, Hilton did little against the Chiefs (4-37-0 receiving) as he returned from a quad injury that caused him to miss the second half of Week 3 and all of Week 4. But he’s coming off a bye and wasn’t listed on the team’s Wednesday injury report, so he should be as close to full strength as possible for any player at this point in the season.

Even without longtime quarterback Andrew Luck (retired), Hilton flashed in Weeks 1-3 before his injury.

  • Week 1 (at Chargers): 28.7 DraftKings points, 8-87-2 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 2 (at Titans): 14.3 DraftKings points, 4-43-1 receiving on six targets
  • Week 3 (vs. Falcons): 20.5 DraftKings points, 8-65-1- receiving on 10 targets (in one half)

There’s little reason to expect that he won’t return to his pre-injury form, especially given his volume and high-value usage. In just 3.5 games, Hilton has a team-high four end-zone targets and eight red-zone targets.

There are a few reasons to like Hilton for Week 7. First of all, he’s on the positive side of his splits. As the locked-in No. 1 receiver for the Colts since his first Pro-Bowl season in 2014, Hilton has been at his best at home and as a favorite.

  • Home (41 games): 17.0 DraftKings points, +1.96 Plus/Minus, 51.2% Consistency Rating
  • Away (40 games): 15.2 DraftKings points, +0.17 Plus/Minus, 37.5% Consistency Rating
  • Favorite (40 games): 19.5 DraftKings points, +3.84 Plus/Minus, 55.0% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (42 games): 13.0 DraftKings points, -1.54 Plus/Minus, 35.7% Consistency Rating

In his 30 games as a home favorite, Hilton has averaged 19.7 DraftKings points with a +4.41 Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency Rating.

He’s in his smash spot.

On top of that, the Texans are Hilton’s personal Valhalla. I don’t really know what that means, but it sounds right.

Under head coach Bill O’Brien, the Texans have been utterly unable to stop Hilton for the past half decade. In his 11 games against O’Brien’s team, Hilton has averaged an insulting 19.3 DraftKings points.

Last year, he showed little mercy.

  • Week 4: 18.5 DraftKings points, 4-115-0 receiving on six targets
  • Week 14: 31.9 DraftKings points, 9-199-0 receiving on 12 targets
  • Wild Card: 13.5 DraftKings points, 5-85-0 receiving on 10 targets

And the year before that, Hilton and then-and-current quarterback Jacoby Brissett teamed up for one massive performance and one end-of-season irrelevant dud.

  • Week 9: 37.5 DraftKings points, 5-175-2 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 17: 4.4 DraftKings points, 3-14-0 receiving on six targets

Hilton isn’t guaranteed to go off against the Texans, and what he did in 2014-16 against the team probably isn’t all that relevant. But the 2017 data is pertinent because it has Brissett, the 2018 data is relevant because it has HC Frank Reich and the 2019 Texans defense is similar to the 2017-18 units because many of the players are the same and coordinator Romeo Crennel was on the staff for those seasons.

And regardless of his past history against the Texans, Hilton has a good matchup against them now. The Texans are No. 26 with a 51.3 PFF coverage grade. They have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 42.5 per game.

This year the Texans have faced two players comparable to Hilton as small-and-speedy skilled receivers. They struggled against both.

  • Calvin Ridley (Week 5): 19.8 DraftKings points, 5-88-1 receiving on nine targets
  • Tyreek Hill (Week 6): 25.0 DraftKings points, 5-80-2 receiving on 10 targets

Finally, the Texans are injured in the secondary: No. 1 cornerback Johnathan Joseph (hamstring) missed last week and is uncertain for Sunday. And slot cornerback Bradley Roby (hamstring) is expected to miss the next month or so.

Against backup corners, Hilton is primed to go off.

With his matchup, usage and salary — especially on DraftKings — Hilton is a viable option in cash games and GPPs.

Hilton is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a strong 94% Bargain Rating.

Kenny Golladay: Detroit Lions (+1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings, 43.5 O/U

UPDATE (Oct. 19): Vikings LB Ben Gedeon (concussion) is out.

Most fantasy players probably don’t think of Golladay as a WR1, but he’s the No. 11 DraftKings wide receiver with 18.1 points per game. He’s provided strong value with his +4.54 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating.

Only one player this year has at least eight targets in every game he’s played — and that’s Golladay.

Without question, he is a volatile player. Over his past 16 games, he’s been a boom/bust producer to an almost comical degree.

Like most volatile players, Golladay is a splits-informed producer. Perhaps the most important split of his career regards his former teammate Golden Tate, whom the Lions traded last year in Week 9.

  • Without Tate (13 games): 16.0 DraftKings points, 9.2 targets, 4.9 receptions, 73.1 yards, 0.46 touchdowns
  • With Tate (18 games): 10.7 DraftKings points, 5.1 targets, 3.2 receptions, 53.0 yards, 0.33 touchdowns

Since last season, only seven wide receivers — Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster — have averaged more than the 9.2 targets per game Golladay has seen in the post-Tate era. That’s an elite list.

Based on Golladay’s volume, high-leverage usage and natural talent — he is No. 4 in the league with 139.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game — he warrants strong consideration tournaments.

In theory, it’s hard to rely on Golladay in cash games because is such a touchdown-dependent receiver.

  • Touchdown (10 games): 21.2 DraftKings points, 9.1 targets, 5.3 receptions, 80.6 yards, 1.3 touchdowns
  • No Touchdown (21 games): 9.0 DraftKings points, 5.8 targets, 3.3 receptions, 52.3 yards, zero touchdowns

But Golladay’s touchdown production correlates strongly with his target volume, and now that he’s seeing steady targets, his likelihood of scoring has increased dramatically.

And it’s not just that he’s getting targets. Despite already having had his bye, Golladay leads the league with eight end-zone targets and 16 red-zone targets. He’s getting the money-making aerial looks.

And with that kind of usage, Golladay is 100% an option for cash games.

When a guy with Golladay’s ability (15.6 yards per reception), size (6-foot-4, 218 pounds) and athleticism (4.5-second 40-yard dash) gets so many scoring opportunities, it’s not a fluke when he gets lots of touchdowns. It’s destiny.

It’s math.

For this game in particular, Golladay is on the positive side of his location and Vegas splits.

  • Home (17 games): 14.2 DraftKings points, +3.86 Plus/Minus, 64.7% Consistency Rating
  • Away (15 games): 10.6 DraftKings points, +0.07 Plus/Minus, 46.7% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (19 games): 15.0 DraftKings points, +3.73 Plus/Minus, 57.9% Consistency Rating
  • Favorite (13 games): 9.0 DraftKings points, -0.33 Plus/Minus, 53.8% Consistency Rating

In his 10 career games as a home dog, Golladay has averaged 16.7 DraftKings points with a +5.20 Plus/Minus. If we narrow the range to just 2018-19, when Golladay has been the No. 1 receiver, those numbers jump up to 18.8 and +5.50 in seven games.

There’s nothing great about Golladay’s matchup. In fact, the Vikings are No. 3 with an 88.1 PFF coverage grade. On paper, the matchup is bad, especially since Golladay could see shadow coverage from cornerback Xavier Rhodes.

And Golladay hasn’t had success against Mike Zimmer’s Vikings defense in his three career games with the division rivals.

  • Week 12 (2017): 8.1 DraftKings points, 2-61-0 receiving on four targets
  • Week 9 (2018): 8.4 DraftKings points, 3-46-0 receiving on four targets
  • Week 16 (2018): 11.8 DraftKings points, 6-58-0 receiving on 15 targets

But Rhodes hasn’t shadowed since Week 2, Golladay lines up all over the formation and he’s playing at a peak level.

The four receivers comparable to Golladay in target volume, size and talent to face the Vikings this year have had success.

  • Julio Jones (Week 1): 15.1 DraftKings points, 6-31-1 receiving on 11 targets
  • Davante Adams (Week 2): 20.6 DraftKings points, 7-106-0 receiving on nine targets
  • Allen Robinson (Week 3): 14.7 DraftKings points, 7-77-0 receiving on seven targets
  • Alshon Jeffery (Week 6): 23.6 DraftKings points, 10-75-1 receiving on 12 targets

Golladay is certainly capable of hitting the 18.5 DraftKings points that these receivers averaged against Rhodes and company.

One final factor: Golladay comes with the Monday Night Football discount. His salary was set on Sunday night — before the Lions played on MNF — so his Week 6 usage and production are not accounted for in his current pricing. As if you need another reason to be bullish on Babytron.

Golladay is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +2.46 Projected Plus/Minus.

NFL-DFS-Week 1-Plays-Stacks-DraftKings-FanDuel

Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11).

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($8,000 DK, $8,200 FD): Jones is just No. 9 with 19.0 DraftKings points per game, but he’s No. 6 with 132.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game. The Falcons are No. 2 with a 70.1% pass-play rate. The Rams have a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 against the run (-21.5% DVOA) but No. 20 against the pass (12.6% DVOA), and they’re without cornerbacks Aqib Talib (ribs, injured reserve) and Marcus Peters (trade). They have acquired cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but he might be slow to adjust to the system. Jones is the No. 1 receiver in our Week 7 fantasy rankings, and he has position-high median projections in our DraftKings and FanDuel Models.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($7,900 DK, $8,100 FD): Thomas entered the year with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three seasons. “Nothing stops this train.” Even without Drew Brees (thumb) for most of the season, Thomas easily leads the league with 53 receptions. Relative to Julio, DeAndre Hopkins and Cooper Kupp, he will have drastically reduced ownership. Thomas makes for an intriguing contrarian GPP play. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RB Alvin Kamara (ankle, knee), WR Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) and TE Jared Cook (ankle) are out.

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD): Hopkins has just 16.0 DraftKings points per game and has hit salary-based expectations in only one week. But Hopkins is No. 5 with 9.3 targets and No. 11 with 125.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game. He leads all receivers in ceiling projections on DraftKings and FanDuel. Put simply, he’s beyond due. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RT Tytus Howard (knee) is out. Colts FS Malik Hooker (knee) is doubtful.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD): Kupp easily leads the Rams with 69 targets, 45 receptions, 522 yards receiving, 245 yards after the catch and four receiving touchdowns. The Falcons are No. 31 with a 39.7 PFF coverage grade, and Kupp has a great matchup in the slot against cornerback Damontae Kazee, who has allowed an 80% catch rate this year. Kupp is the No. 3 wide receiver with 16.5 points per game on FanDuel, where he has a position-high floor projection. UPDATE (Oct. 19): Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is out.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings ($6,900 DK, $7,100 FD): Last year, Thielen averaged 9.6 targets per game (including playoffs), but this year that number has dropped to 6.3 under run-loving offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Even so, Thielen has 16.9 DraftKings points per game, and he’s tied for No. 2 with seven end-zone targets.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($6,200 DK, $6,300 FD): Fuller dropped three long touchdowns last week, but his upside is unquestioned. He’s No. 2 in the league with 145.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game. In his 17 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, Fuller has averaged 17.7 DraftKings points. Fuller has a significant speed advantage over cornerback Pierre Desir (4.32 vs. 4.59 seconds in the 40-yard dash), who has a 50.3 PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RT Tytus Howard (knee) is out. Colts FS Malik Hooker (knee) is doubtful.

D.J. Chark Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,000 DK, $6,600 FD): The sophomore breakout is the No. 6 DraftKings wide receiver with 19.8 points per game and a +10.60 Plus/Minus. The Bengals are No. 30 with a 36.4% pass defense DVOA, and they will likely be without starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) and William Jackson III (shoulder). UPDATE (Oct. 19): TE Geoff Swaim (concussion) and WR Marqise Lee (foot) are out. WR Dede Westbrook (shoulder) is questionable.

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams ($5,900 DK, $7,300 FD): Woods is yet to score a receiving touchdown, and he has just one WR1 fantasy performance this year. But in his 31 Rams games as a favorite, he’s averaged 16.4 DraftKings points per game with a +3.96 Plus/Minus. No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (toe) is expected to be out, so Woods will have a highly advantageous matchup against backup rookie cornerback Kendall Sheffield, who has 71 coverage snaps to his name. UPDATE (Oct. 19): Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is out.

Golden Tate, New York Giants ($5,800 DK, $6,100 FD): The sample is small and probably unrepresentative, but Tate leads the Giants with 15 targets, nine receptions, 115 yards receiving and 62 yards after the catch since returning in Week 5. Teammate Sterling Shepard (concussion) is still in the league’s protocol, and if he misses this week, Tate will once again be the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. The Cardinals are No. 29 with a 33.3% pass defense DVOA. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RBs Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Wayne Gallman (concussion) and TE Evan Engram (knee) are in. WR Sterling Shepard (concussion) is out.

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens ($5,600 DK, $5,400 FD): Brown (ankle) missed last week and is yet to practice. He seems unlikely to play, but if he suits up he will likely be rosterable at reduced ownership. He is No. 5 with 134 air yards and yards after the catch per game. UPDATE (Oct. 19): WR Marquise Brown (ankle) missed practice all week and is expected not to play.

John Brown, Buffalo Bills ($5,500 DK, $5,900 FD): The Abolitionist has a team-high 28 receptions, 360 yards receiving and 531 air yards. The Bills have a slate-high 29-point implied Vegas total. The Dolphins are No. 32 with a 73.8% pass defense DVOA, and No. 1 cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) missed last week. If he plays, he will likely shadow JoBro, but this year he’s allowed a 77.8% catch rate, and he lacks the speed (4.58-second 40-yard dash) to hang with the lid-lifting Smoky (4.34-second 40). UPDATE (Oct. 19): RB Devin Singletary (hamstring) is expected to play. Dolphins CB Xavien Howard (knee) is questionable.

Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams ($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD): Cooks is yet to have a fantasy WR1 game this year, and he’s averaging just 6.2 targets per game. But the Rams-Falcons game has a slate-high 54.5-point over/under. The Falcons have allowed the third-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers with 36.3 per game. Cooks has a great matchup against cornerback Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed a 75% catch rate this year. UPDATE (Oct. 19): Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is out.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons ($5,300 DK, $5,500 FD): Ridley has 14 touchdowns in 22 career games. He’s on the positive side of his splits and has averaged 15.4 DraftKings points per game at home and 14.6 as a dog. He has a strong matchup against backup cornerback Troy Hill, who has allowed a 64.1% catch rate in his career.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,000 DK, $5,600 FD): Kirk (ankle) has missed the past two weeks, but I tentatively expect him to play given that he’s practiced every day this week, albeit on a limited basis. Before his injury, for the first month of the season he led the Cardinals with 37 targets and 24 receptions. The Giants have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers with 45.4 per game. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RB David Johnson (ankle) and WR Christian Kirk (ankle) are game-time decisions.

Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,900 DK, $5,400 FD): The dream is dead of a No. 1 receiver season for Westbrook, but he actually leads the team with 45 targets. The Bengals are No. 29 with a 47.0 PFF coverage grade. Westbrook has a great matchup against backup slot cornerback Tony McRae, who has allowed an 80% catch rate for his career. UPDATE (Oct. 19): TE Geoff Swaim (concussion) and WR Marqise Lee (foot) are out. WR Dede Westbrook (shoulder) is questionable.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD): Metcalf is No. 1 on the team with 467 air yards, and he’s tied for No. 2 in the league with seven end-zone targets. With tight end Will Dissly (Achilles) out for the year, Metcalf could see his target share increase. Cornerback Jimmy Smith (knee) is tentatively expected to return, and he presents Metcalf with a tougher matchup than he otherwise would have had, but Smith is still exploitable. Last year Smith allowed a 67.7% catch rate. UPDATE (Oct. 19): Ravens CB Jimmy Smith (knee) is expected not to play.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Williams is a scoreless big-play receiver suffering from major regression after scoring 11 touchdowns last year. But he’s No. 8 in the league with 131.6 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Cornerback Malcolm Butler has allowed a 71.1% catch rate and three receiving touchdowns this year. UPDATE (Oct. 19): WR Travis Benjamin (quad, injured reserve) and RB Justin Jackson (calf) are out.

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD): Lazard comes with the MNF discount and is a legitimate stone-minimum cash-game consideration. Starting wide receivers Davante Adams (toe), Geronimo Allison (concussion) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle, knee) have all missed practice this week and seem unlikely to play. In his first real game of NFL action last week, the big-bodied Iowa State star had a 4-65-1 receiving line on five targets and 17 snaps and looked like he belonged. The Raiders have a funnel defense that ranks No. 6 against the run (-18.2% DVOA) but No. 26 against the pass (20.0% DVOA). Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 50-29-3 against the spread at home. Even without his starting receivers, Rodgers will find a way, and Lazard is in line to be a primary beneficiary. If Adams, Allison and MVS are all out, at least a few sharp DFS players will use Lazard as a cheap, roster-expanding punt play. UPDATE (Oct. 19): WR Davante Adams (toe) is out. WR Geronimo Allison (concussion) is expected not to play. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle, knee) had a limited practice on Friday and is questionable. If MVS plays, Lazard will be far less attractive as a DFS option.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Allen Lazard
Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

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The Week 7 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 20, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Odds as of Friday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Tyler Lockett: $6,600 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • Larry Fitzgerald: $6,100 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel
  • T.Y. Hilton: $5,900 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
  • Kenny Golladay: $5,800 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel

Tyler Lockett: Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens, 49.5 Over/Under

UPDATE (Oct. 19): Ravens CB Jimmy Smith (knee) is expected not to play.

Last year, Lockett had a magically efficient season. He turned 57 receptions and 13 carries into 1,034 yards and 10 touchdowns. He produced a perfect QB rating of 158.3 for Russell Wilson on his 70 targets. He had a league-high 77.8% catch rate on passes of at least 20 yards (per Pro Football Focus).

This year, he’s had something of a mixed campaign.

  • Week 1 (vs. Bengals): 10.9 FanDuel points, 1-44-1 receiving on two targets
  • Week 2 (at Steelers): 12.9 FanDuel points, 10-79-0 receiving on 12 targets
  • Week 3 (vs. Saints): 26.9 FanDuel points, 11-154-1 receiving on 14 targets
  • Week 4 (at Cardinals): 7.1 FanDuel points, 4-51-0 receiving on four targets
  • Week 5 (vs. Rams): 12.3 FanDuel points, 4-51-1 receiving on four targets, -8 rushing yards
  • Week 6 (at Browns): 10.3 FanDuel points, 5-75-0 receiving on five targets, three rushing yards

Lockett leads the team with 41 targets, 35 receptions and 454 yards receiving, and he’s No. 2 with 461 air yards, 112 yards after the catch and three receiving touchdowns.

But he has just one top-12 fantasy performance this year (per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer).

There’s nothing wrong with 13.4 FanDuel points per game, and Lockett has provided value with his +4.54 Plus/Minus. He’s hit salary-based expectations in five of six games this year. But Lockett is simply not seeing enough volume each week to be a consistent high-end producer, which means that he’s risky for cash games.

For tournaments, though, Lockett is viable because of his efficiency and play-making ability. Since last season, he’s had an 82.1% catch rate and 11.1% touchdown rate to go along with his 13.2 yards per target in 23 games (including playoffs). Lockett is No. 1 with a 9.8 target quality rating (per Player Profiler). With numbers like that, all it takes is a little luck or a little more volume, and Lockett could have a 120-yard, two-touchdown performance in any given week.

His matchup against the Ravens is intriguing, given that their secondary is in flux. The Ravens are No. 21 in pass defense (12.9% DVOA, per Football Outsiders), but they have been No. 2 against opposing No. 1 wide receivers (-38.4% DVOA), thanks primarily to the shutdown play of cornerback Marlon Humphrey.

And over the past two weeks, for the first time in his career, Humphrey has shadowed receivers into the slot — first JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 5 and then Tyler Boyd in Week 6. Although he allowed 3-49-1 receiving on three targets to JuJu, last week Humphrey shut Boyd down, allowing just one reception for one yard on five targets.

But I’m not sure how much stock I want to put into these two games. The Steelers and Bengals are a combined 1-10, and both games were played against backup-level quarterbacks in Mason Rudolph and Andy Dalton (#burn).

And there’s a difference between strategically shadowing in the slot for 47.9% of your snaps for a couple of games and playing there on a regular basis — and Humphrey might be the team’s full-time slot corner as of this week.

Right cornerback Jimmy Smith (knee) has been out since Week 1, but he practiced on Wednesday on a limited basis and might return against the Seahawks. And on Tuesday the Ravens traded for cornerback Marcus Peters, who is almost exclusively an outside corner. I expect he will settle in on the left side, where he distinguished himself as an All-Pro defender for the Chiefs in his first three seasons.

So that will push Humphrey into the slot, where the Ravens are without starter Tavon Young (neck, injured reserve).

Humphrey is a good corner. Across his three-year career, he has held opposing receivers to a 49.2% catch rate: In theory, Humphrey should have the edge in his matchup against Lockett. But if he has to play almost all of his snaps in the slot, where Lockett has run 69.7% of his routes this year, he could struggle as he adjusts.

Lockett is a slot savant. Against a defender playing out of position — even a good defender — all it takes is a couple of plays for Lockett to get loose and catch a deep touchdown. And that’s especially the case since the Ravens are without starting safety Tony Jefferson (knee, IR) and fill-in safety DeShon Elliott (knee, IR).

And the Ravens have struggled this year against slot receivers: The five best pass-catching performances they’ve allowed have all come from players who saw most of their action in the slot.

  • Jarvis Landry (Week 4): 20.7 FanDuel points, 8-167-0 receiving on 10 targets
  • Mecole Hardman (Week 3): 17.4 FanDuel points, 2-97-1 receiving on five targets
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (Week 5): 15.0 FanDuel points, 7-75-1 receiving on seven targets
  • Christian Kirk (Week 2): 14.4 FanDuel points, 6-114-0 receiving on eight targets
  • Larry Fitzgerald (Week 2): 12.9 FanDuel points, 5-104-0 receiving on 11 targets

Against an out-of-position corner in a defense that has been vulnerable to slot receivers, Lockett has the underappreciated potential to go off.

Lockett is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner Model for FanDuel, where he has an elite 98% Bargain Rating.

Larry Fitzgerald: Arizona Cardinals (+3) at New York Giants, 50.5 O/U

UPDATE (Oct. 19): RB David Johnson (ankle) and WR Christian Kirk (ankle) are game-time decisions.

The aged Fitz leads the Cardinals with 52 targets, 35 receptions, 427 yards receiving and 502 air yards. He hasn’t been a high-upside player, but he’s been as reliable as any receiver in the league with his 12.0 FanDuel points per game, +4.96 Plus/Minus and 83.3% Consistency Rating.

In only one game this year has Fitz had fewer than seven targets.

He hasn’t been highly efficient with his targets.

On a per-game basis, he is No. 10 with 15.2 expected fantasy points but No. 112 with -0.2 fantasy points over expectation (per RotoViz Screener).

That’s just the way it is with Fitz: He’s no longer an efficient player. But few receivers have more than his 8.7 targets per game.

Fitz has one of the best matchups of the week. The Giants are incredibly flawed on defense. They’re No. 32 in the league with a 38.7 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus), and they have allowed opposing wide receivers to score the fourth-most FanDuel points with 36.1 per game.

Some of the biggest games the Giants have allowed have come from receivers who played primarily in the slot against them.

  • Randall Cobb (Week 1): 14.9 FanDuel points, 4-69-1 receiving on five targets
  • Cole Beasley (Week 2): 10.3 FanDuel points, 4-83-0 receiving on four targets
  • Adam Thielen (Week 5): 28.5 FanDuel points, 7-130-2 receiving on eight targets
  • Julian Edelman (Week 6): 15.8 FanDuel points, 9-113-0 receiving on 15 targets

Fitz has an especially strong matchup in the slot against cornerbacks Grant Haley and presumably Antonio Hamilton. (Given that the Cardinals are the league’s only team to use a four-wide set as their standard package, there’s sometimes uncertainty about whom opposing teams will use as their No. 4 corner.)

Haley is a second-year undrafted player who owns a 45.8 PFF coverage grade and has allowed an 82.1% catch rate this year. If he were a plate or a cup or a piece of flatware, he’d be disposable.

And Hamilton is even worse as the team’s reserve corner: A four-year undrafted vet, Hamilton has just 74 career coverage snaps to his name. In Week 1, he allowed a 7-77-0 receiving line on seven targets: He hasn’t played since.

And if the Giants opt not to go with Hamilton, they might use Corey Ballentine, a sixth-round rookie with only 10 defensive snaps of NFL experience.

Against such players, Fitz legitimately could have a 10-100-1 performance. And even if Fitz doesn’t have a blowup game, his floor makes him a viable mid-priced option in cash games.

Fitz is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +4.70 Projected Plus/Minus and 98% Bargain Rating.

Photo credit: USAToday Sports. Pictured: T.Y. Hilton

T.Y. Hilton: Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. Houston Texans, 47.5 O/U

UPDATE (Oct. 19): WR Parris Campbell (abdominal) is out. LG Quenton Nelson (hip) is questionable but tentatively expected to play.

In Week 5, Hilton did little against the Chiefs (4-37-0 receiving) as he returned from a quad injury that caused him to miss the second half of Week 3 and all of Week 4. But he’s coming off a bye and wasn’t listed on the team’s Wednesday injury report, so he should be as close to full strength as possible for any player at this point in the season.

Even without longtime quarterback Andrew Luck (retired), Hilton flashed in Weeks 1-3 before his injury.

  • Week 1 (at Chargers): 28.7 DraftKings points, 8-87-2 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 2 (at Titans): 14.3 DraftKings points, 4-43-1 receiving on six targets
  • Week 3 (vs. Falcons): 20.5 DraftKings points, 8-65-1- receiving on 10 targets (in one half)

There’s little reason to expect that he won’t return to his pre-injury form, especially given his volume and high-value usage. In just 3.5 games, Hilton has a team-high four end-zone targets and eight red-zone targets.

There are a few reasons to like Hilton for Week 7. First of all, he’s on the positive side of his splits. As the locked-in No. 1 receiver for the Colts since his first Pro-Bowl season in 2014, Hilton has been at his best at home and as a favorite.

  • Home (41 games): 17.0 DraftKings points, +1.96 Plus/Minus, 51.2% Consistency Rating
  • Away (40 games): 15.2 DraftKings points, +0.17 Plus/Minus, 37.5% Consistency Rating
  • Favorite (40 games): 19.5 DraftKings points, +3.84 Plus/Minus, 55.0% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (42 games): 13.0 DraftKings points, -1.54 Plus/Minus, 35.7% Consistency Rating

In his 30 games as a home favorite, Hilton has averaged 19.7 DraftKings points with a +4.41 Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency Rating.

He’s in his smash spot.

On top of that, the Texans are Hilton’s personal Valhalla. I don’t really know what that means, but it sounds right.

Under head coach Bill O’Brien, the Texans have been utterly unable to stop Hilton for the past half decade. In his 11 games against O’Brien’s team, Hilton has averaged an insulting 19.3 DraftKings points.

Last year, he showed little mercy.

  • Week 4: 18.5 DraftKings points, 4-115-0 receiving on six targets
  • Week 14: 31.9 DraftKings points, 9-199-0 receiving on 12 targets
  • Wild Card: 13.5 DraftKings points, 5-85-0 receiving on 10 targets

And the year before that, Hilton and then-and-current quarterback Jacoby Brissett teamed up for one massive performance and one end-of-season irrelevant dud.

  • Week 9: 37.5 DraftKings points, 5-175-2 receiving on nine targets
  • Week 17: 4.4 DraftKings points, 3-14-0 receiving on six targets

Hilton isn’t guaranteed to go off against the Texans, and what he did in 2014-16 against the team probably isn’t all that relevant. But the 2017 data is pertinent because it has Brissett, the 2018 data is relevant because it has HC Frank Reich and the 2019 Texans defense is similar to the 2017-18 units because many of the players are the same and coordinator Romeo Crennel was on the staff for those seasons.

And regardless of his past history against the Texans, Hilton has a good matchup against them now. The Texans are No. 26 with a 51.3 PFF coverage grade. They have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 42.5 per game.

This year the Texans have faced two players comparable to Hilton as small-and-speedy skilled receivers. They struggled against both.

  • Calvin Ridley (Week 5): 19.8 DraftKings points, 5-88-1 receiving on nine targets
  • Tyreek Hill (Week 6): 25.0 DraftKings points, 5-80-2 receiving on 10 targets

Finally, the Texans are injured in the secondary: No. 1 cornerback Johnathan Joseph (hamstring) missed last week and is uncertain for Sunday. And slot cornerback Bradley Roby (hamstring) is expected to miss the next month or so.

Against backup corners, Hilton is primed to go off.

With his matchup, usage and salary — especially on DraftKings — Hilton is a viable option in cash games and GPPs.

Hilton is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a strong 94% Bargain Rating.

Kenny Golladay: Detroit Lions (+1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings, 43.5 O/U

UPDATE (Oct. 19): Vikings LB Ben Gedeon (concussion) is out.

Most fantasy players probably don’t think of Golladay as a WR1, but he’s the No. 11 DraftKings wide receiver with 18.1 points per game. He’s provided strong value with his +4.54 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency Rating.

Only one player this year has at least eight targets in every game he’s played — and that’s Golladay.

Without question, he is a volatile player. Over his past 16 games, he’s been a boom/bust producer to an almost comical degree.

Like most volatile players, Golladay is a splits-informed producer. Perhaps the most important split of his career regards his former teammate Golden Tate, whom the Lions traded last year in Week 9.

  • Without Tate (13 games): 16.0 DraftKings points, 9.2 targets, 4.9 receptions, 73.1 yards, 0.46 touchdowns
  • With Tate (18 games): 10.7 DraftKings points, 5.1 targets, 3.2 receptions, 53.0 yards, 0.33 touchdowns

Since last season, only seven wide receivers — Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster — have averaged more than the 9.2 targets per game Golladay has seen in the post-Tate era. That’s an elite list.

Based on Golladay’s volume, high-leverage usage and natural talent — he is No. 4 in the league with 139.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game — he warrants strong consideration tournaments.

In theory, it’s hard to rely on Golladay in cash games because is such a touchdown-dependent receiver.

  • Touchdown (10 games): 21.2 DraftKings points, 9.1 targets, 5.3 receptions, 80.6 yards, 1.3 touchdowns
  • No Touchdown (21 games): 9.0 DraftKings points, 5.8 targets, 3.3 receptions, 52.3 yards, zero touchdowns

But Golladay’s touchdown production correlates strongly with his target volume, and now that he’s seeing steady targets, his likelihood of scoring has increased dramatically.

And it’s not just that he’s getting targets. Despite already having had his bye, Golladay leads the league with eight end-zone targets and 16 red-zone targets. He’s getting the money-making aerial looks.

And with that kind of usage, Golladay is 100% an option for cash games.

When a guy with Golladay’s ability (15.6 yards per reception), size (6-foot-4, 218 pounds) and athleticism (4.5-second 40-yard dash) gets so many scoring opportunities, it’s not a fluke when he gets lots of touchdowns. It’s destiny.

It’s math.

For this game in particular, Golladay is on the positive side of his location and Vegas splits.

  • Home (17 games): 14.2 DraftKings points, +3.86 Plus/Minus, 64.7% Consistency Rating
  • Away (15 games): 10.6 DraftKings points, +0.07 Plus/Minus, 46.7% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (19 games): 15.0 DraftKings points, +3.73 Plus/Minus, 57.9% Consistency Rating
  • Favorite (13 games): 9.0 DraftKings points, -0.33 Plus/Minus, 53.8% Consistency Rating

In his 10 career games as a home dog, Golladay has averaged 16.7 DraftKings points with a +5.20 Plus/Minus. If we narrow the range to just 2018-19, when Golladay has been the No. 1 receiver, those numbers jump up to 18.8 and +5.50 in seven games.

There’s nothing great about Golladay’s matchup. In fact, the Vikings are No. 3 with an 88.1 PFF coverage grade. On paper, the matchup is bad, especially since Golladay could see shadow coverage from cornerback Xavier Rhodes.

And Golladay hasn’t had success against Mike Zimmer’s Vikings defense in his three career games with the division rivals.

  • Week 12 (2017): 8.1 DraftKings points, 2-61-0 receiving on four targets
  • Week 9 (2018): 8.4 DraftKings points, 3-46-0 receiving on four targets
  • Week 16 (2018): 11.8 DraftKings points, 6-58-0 receiving on 15 targets

But Rhodes hasn’t shadowed since Week 2, Golladay lines up all over the formation and he’s playing at a peak level.

The four receivers comparable to Golladay in target volume, size and talent to face the Vikings this year have had success.

  • Julio Jones (Week 1): 15.1 DraftKings points, 6-31-1 receiving on 11 targets
  • Davante Adams (Week 2): 20.6 DraftKings points, 7-106-0 receiving on nine targets
  • Allen Robinson (Week 3): 14.7 DraftKings points, 7-77-0 receiving on seven targets
  • Alshon Jeffery (Week 6): 23.6 DraftKings points, 10-75-1 receiving on 12 targets

Golladay is certainly capable of hitting the 18.5 DraftKings points that these receivers averaged against Rhodes and company.

One final factor: Golladay comes with the Monday Night Football discount. His salary was set on Sunday night — before the Lions played on MNF — so his Week 6 usage and production are not accounted for in his current pricing. As if you need another reason to be bullish on Babytron.

Golladay is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +2.46 Projected Plus/Minus.

NFL-DFS-Week 1-Plays-Stacks-DraftKings-FanDuel

Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11).

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($8,000 DK, $8,200 FD): Jones is just No. 9 with 19.0 DraftKings points per game, but he’s No. 6 with 132.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game. The Falcons are No. 2 with a 70.1% pass-play rate. The Rams have a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 against the run (-21.5% DVOA) but No. 20 against the pass (12.6% DVOA), and they’re without cornerbacks Aqib Talib (ribs, injured reserve) and Marcus Peters (trade). They have acquired cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but he might be slow to adjust to the system. Jones is the No. 1 receiver in our Week 7 fantasy rankings, and he has position-high median projections in our DraftKings and FanDuel Models.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($7,900 DK, $8,100 FD): Thomas entered the year with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three seasons. “Nothing stops this train.” Even without Drew Brees (thumb) for most of the season, Thomas easily leads the league with 53 receptions. Relative to Julio, DeAndre Hopkins and Cooper Kupp, he will have drastically reduced ownership. Thomas makes for an intriguing contrarian GPP play. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RB Alvin Kamara (ankle, knee), WR Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) and TE Jared Cook (ankle) are out.

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD): Hopkins has just 16.0 DraftKings points per game and has hit salary-based expectations in only one week. But Hopkins is No. 5 with 9.3 targets and No. 11 with 125.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game. He leads all receivers in ceiling projections on DraftKings and FanDuel. Put simply, he’s beyond due. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RT Tytus Howard (knee) is out. Colts FS Malik Hooker (knee) is doubtful.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD): Kupp easily leads the Rams with 69 targets, 45 receptions, 522 yards receiving, 245 yards after the catch and four receiving touchdowns. The Falcons are No. 31 with a 39.7 PFF coverage grade, and Kupp has a great matchup in the slot against cornerback Damontae Kazee, who has allowed an 80% catch rate this year. Kupp is the No. 3 wide receiver with 16.5 points per game on FanDuel, where he has a position-high floor projection. UPDATE (Oct. 19): Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is out.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings ($6,900 DK, $7,100 FD): Last year, Thielen averaged 9.6 targets per game (including playoffs), but this year that number has dropped to 6.3 under run-loving offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Even so, Thielen has 16.9 DraftKings points per game, and he’s tied for No. 2 with seven end-zone targets.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($6,200 DK, $6,300 FD): Fuller dropped three long touchdowns last week, but his upside is unquestioned. He’s No. 2 in the league with 145.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game. In his 17 games with quarterback Deshaun Watson, Fuller has averaged 17.7 DraftKings points. Fuller has a significant speed advantage over cornerback Pierre Desir (4.32 vs. 4.59 seconds in the 40-yard dash), who has a 50.3 PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RT Tytus Howard (knee) is out. Colts FS Malik Hooker (knee) is doubtful.

D.J. Chark Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,000 DK, $6,600 FD): The sophomore breakout is the No. 6 DraftKings wide receiver with 19.8 points per game and a +10.60 Plus/Minus. The Bengals are No. 30 with a 36.4% pass defense DVOA, and they will likely be without starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) and William Jackson III (shoulder). UPDATE (Oct. 19): TE Geoff Swaim (concussion) and WR Marqise Lee (foot) are out. WR Dede Westbrook (shoulder) is questionable.

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams ($5,900 DK, $7,300 FD): Woods is yet to score a receiving touchdown, and he has just one WR1 fantasy performance this year. But in his 31 Rams games as a favorite, he’s averaged 16.4 DraftKings points per game with a +3.96 Plus/Minus. No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (toe) is expected to be out, so Woods will have a highly advantageous matchup against backup rookie cornerback Kendall Sheffield, who has 71 coverage snaps to his name. UPDATE (Oct. 19): Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is out.

Golden Tate, New York Giants ($5,800 DK, $6,100 FD): The sample is small and probably unrepresentative, but Tate leads the Giants with 15 targets, nine receptions, 115 yards receiving and 62 yards after the catch since returning in Week 5. Teammate Sterling Shepard (concussion) is still in the league’s protocol, and if he misses this week, Tate will once again be the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. The Cardinals are No. 29 with a 33.3% pass defense DVOA. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RBs Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Wayne Gallman (concussion) and TE Evan Engram (knee) are in. WR Sterling Shepard (concussion) is out.

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens ($5,600 DK, $5,400 FD): Brown (ankle) missed last week and is yet to practice. He seems unlikely to play, but if he suits up he will likely be rosterable at reduced ownership. He is No. 5 with 134 air yards and yards after the catch per game. UPDATE (Oct. 19): WR Marquise Brown (ankle) missed practice all week and is expected not to play.

John Brown, Buffalo Bills ($5,500 DK, $5,900 FD): The Abolitionist has a team-high 28 receptions, 360 yards receiving and 531 air yards. The Bills have a slate-high 29-point implied Vegas total. The Dolphins are No. 32 with a 73.8% pass defense DVOA, and No. 1 cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) missed last week. If he plays, he will likely shadow JoBro, but this year he’s allowed a 77.8% catch rate, and he lacks the speed (4.58-second 40-yard dash) to hang with the lid-lifting Smoky (4.34-second 40). UPDATE (Oct. 19): RB Devin Singletary (hamstring) is expected to play. Dolphins CB Xavien Howard (knee) is questionable.

Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams ($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD): Cooks is yet to have a fantasy WR1 game this year, and he’s averaging just 6.2 targets per game. But the Rams-Falcons game has a slate-high 54.5-point over/under. The Falcons have allowed the third-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers with 36.3 per game. Cooks has a great matchup against cornerback Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed a 75% catch rate this year. UPDATE (Oct. 19): Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is out.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons ($5,300 DK, $5,500 FD): Ridley has 14 touchdowns in 22 career games. He’s on the positive side of his splits and has averaged 15.4 DraftKings points per game at home and 14.6 as a dog. He has a strong matchup against backup cornerback Troy Hill, who has allowed a 64.1% catch rate in his career.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,000 DK, $5,600 FD): Kirk (ankle) has missed the past two weeks, but I tentatively expect him to play given that he’s practiced every day this week, albeit on a limited basis. Before his injury, for the first month of the season he led the Cardinals with 37 targets and 24 receptions. The Giants have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers with 45.4 per game. UPDATE (Oct. 19): RB David Johnson (ankle) and WR Christian Kirk (ankle) are game-time decisions.

Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,900 DK, $5,400 FD): The dream is dead of a No. 1 receiver season for Westbrook, but he actually leads the team with 45 targets. The Bengals are No. 29 with a 47.0 PFF coverage grade. Westbrook has a great matchup against backup slot cornerback Tony McRae, who has allowed an 80% catch rate for his career. UPDATE (Oct. 19): TE Geoff Swaim (concussion) and WR Marqise Lee (foot) are out. WR Dede Westbrook (shoulder) is questionable.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD): Metcalf is No. 1 on the team with 467 air yards, and he’s tied for No. 2 in the league with seven end-zone targets. With tight end Will Dissly (Achilles) out for the year, Metcalf could see his target share increase. Cornerback Jimmy Smith (knee) is tentatively expected to return, and he presents Metcalf with a tougher matchup than he otherwise would have had, but Smith is still exploitable. Last year Smith allowed a 67.7% catch rate. UPDATE (Oct. 19): Ravens CB Jimmy Smith (knee) is expected not to play.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Williams is a scoreless big-play receiver suffering from major regression after scoring 11 touchdowns last year. But he’s No. 8 in the league with 131.6 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Cornerback Malcolm Butler has allowed a 71.1% catch rate and three receiving touchdowns this year. UPDATE (Oct. 19): WR Travis Benjamin (quad, injured reserve) and RB Justin Jackson (calf) are out.

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD): Lazard comes with the MNF discount and is a legitimate stone-minimum cash-game consideration. Starting wide receivers Davante Adams (toe), Geronimo Allison (concussion) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle, knee) have all missed practice this week and seem unlikely to play. In his first real game of NFL action last week, the big-bodied Iowa State star had a 4-65-1 receiving line on five targets and 17 snaps and looked like he belonged. The Raiders have a funnel defense that ranks No. 6 against the run (-18.2% DVOA) but No. 26 against the pass (20.0% DVOA). Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 50-29-3 against the spread at home. Even without his starting receivers, Rodgers will find a way, and Lazard is in line to be a primary beneficiary. If Adams, Allison and MVS are all out, at least a few sharp DFS players will use Lazard as a cheap, roster-expanding punt play. UPDATE (Oct. 19): WR Davante Adams (toe) is out. WR Geronimo Allison (concussion) is expected not to play. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle, knee) had a limited practice on Friday and is questionable. If MVS plays, Lazard will be far less attractive as a DFS option.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Allen Lazard
Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.