The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Jaguars at Bears
The Bears host the Jaguars as 2.5-point favorites implied to score 24.75 points. The jags are implied to score 22.25 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field Sunday afternoon.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Bortles hasn’t taken a step forward during his third season as the Jags’ QB, but he’s still been competent enough to average a respectable 20.23 DK points through five weeks. He’s priced at $6,300 on DK and is the fourth-highest rated QB in our Tournament Model. Bortles will face a Bears secondary that has just one cornerback ranked among PFF’s top-50 corners of 2016.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon has really struggled to start the 2016 season despite averaging 16.5 touches per game. He’s gained a brutal 2.2 yards after contact this season and his receiving presence has been the only thing saving his fantasy value: His 4.5 receptions per game are the ninth-most among all RBs through five weeks. He does have a good opportunity to improve his rushing efficiency against a Bears defense that has allowed a 52 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in the league. Yeldon is priced at $4,400 on DK with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory has had 20 carries in a Jaguars uniform and has gained 43 yards. He was brought to Jacksonville to help cure their issues running the ball around the goal line, but he’s yet to receive a carry inside the five-yard line through two weeks of action. Unless Ivory starts getting fed near the goal line, don’t expect him to break out as long as he is stuck splitting carries with Yeldon:
More concerning than the obvious PPR point differential shown above is Ivory’s average yards per attempt in games with fewer than 15 carries. He’s averaged 4.51 yards in games with 15-plus carries but just 3.97 yards per attempt with fewer. This week, Ivory is priced at $3,500 on DK but has a lower projected ceiling and floor than Yeldon. Additionally, Ivory’s two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is higher than Yeldon’s. Adding to Ivory’s tough situation is the fact that he’ll be seeing a lot of Bears linebacker Jerrell Freeman – PFF’s third-best LB through five weeks.
WR – Allen Robinson
The Bears have performed well against WR1s this season aside from a big performance from T.Y. Hilton. WRs priced above $6,300 on DK have posted a -3.38 Plus/Minus against the Bears through five weeks. With that said, A-Rob is the only receiver the Bears will have seen that has a comparable target share to Hilton. Robinson has underperformed this season, considering he’s third among all wide receivers in Air Yards and just 18th in average DK points. He’s a risky cash play considering he’s yet to surpass 75 receiving yards in a game this season and the team hasn’t targeted him as frequently in the red zone, but his MS Air (market share of Air Yards) and target share indicate a breakout game could be coming sooner rather than later. A-Rob is priced at $8,600 on FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has seven FD Pro Trends.
WR – Allen Hurns
Hurns is yet to regain his status as one of the league’s more explosive wide receivers. After averaging 9.8 yards per target in 2016, he’s averaged just 8.4 yards per target through five weeks – the 49th-highest rate among all WRs. Still, like Bortles, Hurns has historically thrived as a small underdog. He’s posted a +6.31 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and averaged 16.13 DK points in his six games with a similiar implied total over the past three seasons. This week, Hurns is priced at $4,700 on DK and has five Pro Trends. He faces a Bears secondary that has done a good job of limiting big plays this season: They’ve allowed just one pass of 40-plus yards through five weeks.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee’s six targets per game are good. His 1.37 fantasy points per target are not good. Lee has a tough matchup against slot cornerback Bryce Callahan and is a low-upside play even with his minimum-priced salary on FD.
TE – Julius Thomas
We’re two weeks into October and Thomas still doesn’t have a red-zone target. He’s been more efficient during his second year in Jacksonville, averaging 8.7 yards per target after averaging just 5.7 yards last season, but he needs more chances to score touchdowns before he can regain his status as a weekly TE1. Thomas is still an intriguing GPP play at $5,700 on FD and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. He faces a Bears defense that hasn’t been great against TEs, allowing 1.4 points above salary-based expectations to the position over the past 12 months.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brian Hoyer
Hoyer may not have to give the starting job back to Jay Cutler if he continues to play like he has in his previous three starts:
His +9.87 Plus/Minus and 24.17 DraftKings points are the result of three consecutive games with 300-plus yards and two touchdowns. Keep in mind that these performances have come against the Cowboys, Lions, and Colts — the 25th-, 31st-, and 30th-ranked defenses in pass DVOA through five weeks. Hoyer will face his stiffest test yet against the Jaguars’ seventh-ranked defense in pass DVOA. He’s priced at $5,800 on DraftKings and has a 5.9-point projected floor.
RB – Jordan Howard
The Bears said they would ride Howard in Week 5 and (for once) John Fox was not lying. Howard has played on 90.6 percent of the snaps over the last two weeks and handled 90 percent of the RB touches. He’s been excellent with his opportunities, averaging 6.8 yards per touch – the ninth-highest rate among all RBs this season. Howard is priced at $6,200 on DK and has eight Pro Trends, although his 17 to 20 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is the fifth-highest mark among all RBs. He’ll face a Jaguars defense that has allowed 1.8 points above salary-based expectations to RBs over the past 12 months.
RB – Ka’Deem Carey
Any thoughts that Howard’s featured role could be diminished were vanished in Week 5 when Carey received two total touches as the clear No. 2 back in the offense. He’s not a fantasy option as long as Howard is healthy.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Through five weeks, Jeffery has fewer targets per game than both Kevin White and Cameron Meredith. Read that sentence again. The Bears’ usage of Jeffery defies logic, but his 6.2 targets per game are bound to increase at some point. That point could be this week, as Jeffery has historically thrived in similar matchups:
Although it’s only a four-game sample, Jeffery has posted a +8.11 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and averaged 22.08 DK points when playing on the road with an implied score over 22. He’ll need to get it done against Jalen Ramsey and Prince Amukamara, two of PFF’s top-35 corners through five weeks. Jeffery is priced at $7,600 on FD with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal’s six targets per game appear to be here to stay. He’s performed well over the past five seasons when given such a prominent role in the offense:
His 5.17-56.54-0.62 line in his 24 games with six or more targets has resulted in an average of 14.57 PPR points. Royal is cheaper on DK this week, where he’s priced at $4,000 with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.9 Projected Plus/Minus. He’ll face a Jaguars defense that has allowed 2.4 points above salary-based expectations to WRs over the past 12 months.
WR – Cameron Meredith
Meredith put up a 9-130-1 line during the Bears’ Week 5 loss to the Colts. He appears to have great chemistry with Hoyer, as he’s caught 15 of his 20 targets this season. While most expected the Bears to utilize a different 6’3″ WR on their roster, Meredith has inherited the Kevin White role in the offense, which can apparently lead to double-digit targets per game. Unfortunately, the surprise is out on Meredith, as his 26 to 30 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on DK is the highest among all WRs in Week 6. However, this ownership percentage is cut in half on FD, where Meredith is priced at $5,400 and has a +3.0 Projected Plus/Minus.
TE – Zach Miller
Miller’s targets have been fairly volatile this season on a game-to-game basis, but he’s made the most out of his opportunities. His 86.2 percent catch rate and 2.27 fantasy points per target are the fifth-best rates among all tight ends and demonstrate his ability to consistently make plays with his chances. Miller hasn’t been priced this way, as he continues to offer great value at a sub-$4,000 price tag on DK. He has the third-highest projected ceiling among all TEs priced under $5,000 on DK and his +4.7 Projected Plus/Minus is the second-best mark among all TEs. Miller will look to continue his hot start to 2016 against a Jaguars defense that doesn’t have a safety graded higher than 50th by PFF this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
