The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Eagles at Redskins
The Washington Redskins host the Philadelphia Eagles in a divisional matchup. This game has the fifth-lowest total of the week at 44.5 currently. The upstart Eagles are 2.5-point road favorites implied for 23.5 points. This game has seen significant line movement already; the Eagles opened as 1.5-point underdogs. The Redskins (coming off three straight wins) are currently implied for 21 points at home.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
The Redskins have allowed just six passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, the sixth-lowest mark among teams that have played five games. However, Washington has given up the ninth-most passing yards (1,375) to QBs in 2016. Per our Trends tool, QBs (priced comparably to Wentz) playing as favorites on the road and in division games have previously produced a +2.48 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with steady 60 percent Consistency. This is the first game Wentz will be playing without his best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson. Johnson will be replaced by Halapoulivaati Vaitai, a fifth-round rookie who has yet to take a snap this season. Wentz’s FantasyLabs projected ownership is at zero to one percent in DK’s Millionaire Maker, so he’s worth throwing into a tournament lineup, but there’s no need to go overboard on exposure.
RB – Ryan Mathews
Mathews is currently the fourth-rated running back in the The Sports Geek Player Model for DK, where he has a salary of just $4,900. Mathews had a crucial fumble at the end of the game last week, but coach Doug Pederson says that Mathews will remain the starter. The Redskins have allowed the second-most yards (644) and touchdowns (seven) to RBs this season. They have allowed the third-most DK points per game (34.7) to RBs. According to Football Outsiders, Washington has been the worst team in the NFL against the run in 2016. Mathews has received the most touches inside the 10-yard line in the past four weeks (12) and his seven carries inside the five-yard line also leads the league. Mathews’ consistent scoring opportunities make him a great play in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Darren Sproles
We’ve already established that the Redskins suck against the run. They’ve also allowed the third-most receptions (37) and fifth-most receiving yards (283) to running backs this season. Sproles has a 96 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is currently the third-rated RB in CSURAM88’s Player Model. This is extremely interesting because many players consider Sproles solely on DK because of the PPR scoring. With FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in FD’s Sunday Million, stacking Sproles with the Eagles D/ST could be a sharp contrarian move.
WR – Jordan Matthews
Since being targeted an average of 10.66 times per game in the first three weeks of the season, Matthews has gotten just seven total targets in the past two weeks. That should change this week with Matthews avoiding Redskins corner Josh Norman in the slot. Even with the dip in recent targets, J-Matt’s 22.56 percent target market share in the past four weeks still ranks 25th in the NFL. Matthews is currently the top-rated wide receiver in three of our four Pro Models for FanDuel, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating and FantasyLabs projected ownership of less than nine percent. Comparably-priced wide receivers with similar projected ceilings have manufactured a +2.99 Plus/Minus on FD with 62.5 percent Consistency.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor gets plenty of snaps (only Matthews has more on the team) and is second on the team in targets. He hasn’t been very efficient with those targets, however. In his three most recent games, Agholor has averaged three catches, 30 yards, and just 6.16 DK points per game. Washington is the worst team in the NFL defending No. 2 WRs this year (per FO), but at this point of the season, Agholor is nothing more than a GPP dart.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
The good news? DGB has been targeted four times per game in three straight games. The bad news? He hasn’t turned those targets into more than 43 yards. He’s an athletic freak who should be able to haul in end-zone fades on a regular basis, but that just hasn’t happened. Play him at your own risk.
TE – Zach Ertz
Ertz returned to action last week for the first time since Week 1 and was targeted three times. He became the first tight end to not score a touchdown against Detroit this season. Per our Trends tool, the Redskins have yielded a +1.69 Plus/Minus on FD to TEs this season and have allowed five of seven to exceed their salary-based expectations. Ertz is currently the sixth-rated TE in Adam Levitan’s Player Model for FD and holds an 88 percent Bargain Rating there. With FantasyLabs projected ownership of less than five percent in the Sunday Million, Ertz could be a sneaky play.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
The Eagles have not been kind to opposing quarterbacks in 2016. Per our Trends tool, Philadelphia has held QBs to a league-low 8.28 DraftKings points per game and an amazing -8.3 Plus/Minus. The Eagles have allowed the third-fewest passing yards (862) and fourth-fewest passing touchdowns (three). Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles defense No. 2 in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and No. 3 against the pass. Cousins has excelled as a home underdog historically, averaging 21.79 DK points per game in eight games while producing a +6.58 Plus/Minus. Make no mistake; this is a brutal matchup. However, Cousins is a salary-saving quarterback that could be stacked in guaranteed prize pools with a number of different Redskins pass catchers.
RB – Matt Jones
The one constant in the Redskins offense this season has been Jones’ volume. His 70.97 percent rushing market share in the past four weeks is the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL. No other Redskins running back has seen more than 14 percent of the team’s carries. However, now there are multiple reports out of Washington saying that Robert Kelley has earned an increased workload. The Eagles rank seventh against the run this season (per FO) and have allowed just 54.75 rushing yards per game to RBs. Jones has a DK projection of just 9.3 points this week, is in a tough matchup, and may potentially lose carries to Kelley. Looking elsewhere would be a prudent decision this week.
RB – Chris Thompson
Thompson has averaged 25.75 snaps, 3.25 carries, and 3.5 targets per game in the past four games. Running backs with comparable monthly averages have previously produced a -0.81 Plus/Minus on DK.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Despite receiving only 15.28 percent of the Redskins’ targets, Jackson has a 25.21 percent market share of Air Yards (MS Air) in the past four games. Per our Matchups tool, Jackson will see his fair share of Eagles corner Leodis McKelvin this week. McKelvin’s 76.4 Pro Football Focus grade gives him a slight advantage over Jackson, who has a 74.2 PFF grade. Philadelphia has been the fifth-best team defending opposing No. 1 wide receivers this season (per FO). For those of you looking to take a leisurely stroll down Narrative Street, in three games against his former employer, Jackson has produced a +4.46 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. With projected ownership of zero to one percent in FD’s Sunday Million, stacking DeSean with Cousins could pay off big if Jackson gets loose.
WR – Pierre Garcon
Garcon has moved into second place (behind Jordan Reed) in team target market share in the past four weeks. Per our Matchups tool, Garcon will have the pleasure of running some routes on Eagles corner Nolan Carroll, who has been a frequent burn victim this season (46.5 PFF grade). According to PFF’s WR/CB Chart, Garcon’s 26.4-point graded advantage is the 11th-most advantageous matchup this week. With a 97 percent Bargain Rating on DK, you could stack the $3,800 Garcon with Cousins in the Milly Maker for just $9,400 this week.
WR – Jamison Crowder
Crowder averaged 8.33 targets per game through the first three games this season. He has a total of six targets in his last two games; he’s trending in the wrong direction. Crowder does get to play opposite horrific slot corner Ron Brooks this week, so that’s a positive. Crowder leads the NFL in punt return yards (194), yards per return (27.7), and he scored a punt return touchdown last week. Pairing him with the Redskins D/ST could be an interesting contrarian move in large-field GPPs.
TE – Jordan Reed
Reed hasn’t practiced all week and is still in the concussion protocol. He’s officially questionable for Week 6 and doesn’t seem likely to play. Reed has a long history of concussions dating back to his days at the University of Florida. Be sure to follow our NFL News feed for all the latest on this situation. If Reed can’t go, (gulp) Vernon Davis and Niles Paul would be in line for more playing time.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
