The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Colts at Texans
The Texans are 3.5-point favorites for their Week 6 matchup against the Colts. They’ve surpassed 24 points only once this season, but against the Colts’ porous defense the Texans are implied to score 24.5 points. The Colts are implied to score 21.5 points as they look to improve to 1-1 in the AFC South. There’s a 20 percent chance of rain for Sunday’s game in Houston, but it should be mostly clear skies throughout the afternoon. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Andrew Luck
As far as usage is concerned, Luck has done everything you would hope for out of a fantasy quarterback this season. He’s top-five among all quarterbacks in both deep-ball attempts and red-zone attempts. The problem is that the Colts receivers haven’t helped turn a lot of these fantasy-friendly pass attempts into much production. The unit has dropped a league-high 12 passes this season, per sportingcharts.com. This has resulted in Luck averaging fewer fantasy points per dropback this season than he did in 2015. This week, he has a tough matchup against a Texans defense that has allowed a league-low 181 passing yards per game this season. Luck is priced at $8,600 on FanDuel and is the second-lowest rated quarterback in our Tournament Model.
RB – Frank Gore
Through five weeks, Gore is yet to have a run over 20 yards. His 14.96 DraftKings points per game still ranks among the top-25 backs this season, but his ceiling is very low at this point of his career. Still, he’s more than capable of producing some solid outings and he’s historically played well in games with similar implied totals:
As our Trends tool shows, Gore has posted a +4.18 Plus/Minus with 60 percent Consistency and averaged 12.51 DK points in his 15 games over the past three seasons with a similar implied total. This week, exposure to Gore should be on FD, where he is priced at $6,300 with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has a +2.6 Projected Plus/Minus. He’ll look to finally break off some explosive runs against a Texans defense that has allowed five runs of 20-plus yards this season – tied for the most in the league.
RB – Josh Ferguson
Ferguson continues to have a consistent presence in the Colts’ passing game, as he is one of just 17 RBs in the league to average at least four receptions per game this season. Since 2015, these pass-catching backs have posted a +2.24 Plus/Minus with 59 percent Consistency in games in which they are the underdog. It’s hard to trust Ferguson as anything more than a GPP dart considering he’s yet to rush for over 10 yards in a game, but his receiving workload appears to be here to stay. He’s priced at $3,000 on DK with a 3.6-point projected floor.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Through five weeks, Hilton’s 11 targets per game rank third among all wide receivers. He’s the only receiver with double-digit targets in every game this season and has continued to thrive without Donte Moncrief on the field. Since 2014, Hilton has averaged a 4.61-73.62-0.35 line with Moncrief in the lineup, as opposed to an 8.6-140-0.8 line in his five games without Moncrief. This week, he’s priced at $7,900 on FanDuel with a 96 percent Bargain Rating, although his 17 to 20 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is the third-highest mark among all wide receivers. Hilton will likely see a lot of Texans slot cornerback Kareem Jackson – PFF’s 88th-highest graded cornerback this season.
Hilton is questionable for Week 6 but expected to play.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
Dorsett was expected to see a bump in his targets during Moncrief’s absence, but this hasn’t been the case. He actually averaged more targets per game with Moncrief on the field and has done virtually nothing over the past three weeks aside from scoring a long touchdown on a blown coverage against the Jaguars in Week 4. Part of the issue is Luck, as he’s targeted his wide receivers on just 44.8 percent of his pass attempts over the past 12 months – the lowest mark among all quarterbacks. Dorsett is priced at $4,300 on DK with a 98 percent Bargain Rating, but he faces a tough Texans secondary that has allowed a 43.56 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months – the fourth-stingiest mark in the league.
WR – Chester Rogers
Rogers had a season-high six targets during the Colts’ Week 5 win over the Bears, but he’s caught just five of his 12 targets this season and produced a mere 63 yards. Considering his 0.11 fantasy points per opportunity rate is the fourth-worst mark among all wide receivers, he won’t be a recommended fantasy play for the foreseeable future.
TE – Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle
The two tight ends have begun to shift away from their 1A/1B status and are trending towards a No. 1/No. 2 status instead. Doyle has converted his four targets over the past two weeks into just 14 yards, while Allen had his best game yet against the Bears and is now averaging a strong 1.89 fantasy points per target. Although Allen appears to have emerged as the lead tight end, he’s still a risky play due to his five targets per game. Exposure to him should be focused on DK this week, where he is priced at $3,100 with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has a +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus. He has a tough matchup against a Texans defense that has been solid against TEs, allowing o.4 points below salary-based expectations over the past 12 months.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler may be competent enough to (occasionally) move the Texans offense, but he continues to offer very little upside as a fantasy quarterback. He’s averaging 0.29 fantasy points per dropback, which is the fourth-worst mark among all quarterbacks this season. Things don’t look much better this Sunday, as Osweiler has historically struggled in similar matchups:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a -1.83 Plus/Minus with 40 percent Consistency and averaged just 12.92 DraftKings points in his five games with a similar implied total. He’s priced at $6,900 on DK this week but has the fifth-lowest projected ceiling among all quarterbacks. Osweiler is again a low-upside play, even against a Colts defense that could be without cornerbacks Patrick Robinson and Darius Butler.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller’s usage remains in the upper-tier among all running backs, but his efficiency is beginning to become concerning. He’s averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per rush and 5.9 yards per reception. The issue has been his lack of explosive plays, as for the first time in his career Miller has gone five consecutive games without a rush longer than 15 yards.
With that said, Week 6 has the makings for a breakthrough performance from Miller. Since 2014, home backs that are favorites and have received over 60 percent of their team’s snaps have posted a +2.56 Plus/Minus with 55.5 percent Consistency. Additionally, the Colts are ranked 31st in DVOA against the run through five weeks. Exposure to Miller should be focused on FD, where he is priced at $7,900 with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and a +4.1 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue has surprisingly had a higher yards-per-carry average than Miller over the past two weeks, but he won’t be a fantasy option as long as he is averaging just 3.6 touches per game.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Nuk scored a late touchdown to salvage his fantasy day in Week 5, but he’s now had three underwhelming performances in a row and hasn’t appeared to be on the same page with Osweiler. Week 6 could be when the pair finally puts everything together, as Hopkins has historically balled out in similar matchups: 
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a +6.65 Plus/Minus and averaged 20.48 DK points in his 10 games at home with a similar implied total. Nuk is priced at $8,100 on FD with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. He could be shadowed by Vontae Davis, but this isn’t necessarily a bad thing considering PFF has graded Davis as just the 82nd-best cornerback of 2016.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller was shut down in Week 5 against the Vikings, finishing with more targets (six) than yards (four). As anyone who watched him play at Notre Dame knows, he’s prone to dropping a big pass or two; this problem hasn’t gone away in the NFL. Through five weeks, Fuller is tied for second among all wide receivers with four drops. Still, the drops are a price most offenses would be happy to pay, as his field-stretching ability has resulted in an average of 16.4 yards per reception – sixth-highest among all wide receivers with at least 20 receptions this season. Fuller will look to take the top off of a Colts secondary that has allowed a juicy 8.2 yards per pass attempt this season. He’s priced at $5,900 on DK and has five DK Pro Trends.
Fuller (hamstring) is questionable but expected to play.
WR – Braxton Miller
Miller has converted his seven targets into 21 yards this season and won’t be a fantasy option until the Houston passing game becomes more than a two-man show.
TE – Ryan Griffin and C.J. Fiedorowicz
Griffin is no longer in the league’s concussion protocol and is expected to play in Week 6. He will likely continue to split time with Fiedorowicz, who has averaged 6.5 targets per game over the past two weeks and is averaging a respectable 1.62 fantasy points per target on the season. The Colts defense has allowed 3.7 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months — the second-worst mark in the league.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
