The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Chiefs at Raiders
This division game currently has a 47-point implied Vegas total, tied for the third-highest mark of the week. Coming off a bye week, Kansas City travels to Oakland in a pick’em; both teams have implied totals of 23.5 points.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
Alex Smith is Alex Smith. However, despite some optimism that the Raiders defense could be better in 2016, they (per our Trends tool) are still #verybad . . .
They’ve actually been historically bad: They’ve given up the third-most passing yards in NFL history through five games (1,653). Smith has some sneaky upside this week in guaranteed prize pools at two to four FantasyLabs projected ownership in the Sunday Million with his rushing ability. He is the second-highest rated quarterback in our Tournament Model on FD, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+4.6), and he’s tied for the sixth-most favorable Opponent Plus/Minus.
RB – Spencer Ware
Coming off the bye, Ware has a +5.5 FD Plus/Minus and is third in the NFL in yards per touch (7.4). It’s possible that Charles could receive the bulk of the pass-catching workload. However, given that he is working his way back from an ACL tear, Ware could easily remain the best back on this roster and he will continue to have standalone value at the goal line. If considering him as an under-the-radar play in GPPs, look to FD where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. The Raiders own the seventh-highest Opponent Plus/Minus to RBs on the slate.
RB – Jamaal Charles
Even if he gets 10 to 12 touches as he is eased back in, Charles is interesting in GPPs against a Raiders defense that has given up the fourth-most rushing yards in the league through five weeks. At $5,100 on DK, Charles is currently the fourth-highest rated running back in the CSURAM88 Model at five to eight percent projected ownership in the Milly Maker.
Charles has practiced in full this week.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
With a 22.09 percent target share in the past four games and an overwhelming 36.07 percent market share of Air Yards (14th in the league), Maclin is clearly getting fantasy-friendly opportunities:
Maclin will remain the focal point of this Chiefs passing game in Week 6 against an Oakland team allowing the most receiving yards per game in the league. Per John Proctor and the NFL Week 6 WR/CB Matchups article, both David Amerson and Sean Smith have ranked as top-21 corners this year, per PFF. Maclin will avoid them on nearly 50 percent of his routes, running from the slot at PFF’s 59th-graded corner, D.J. Hayden. Maclin is a cash consideration in Week 6 and a great GPP play as the seventh-highest rated player in the FD Bales Model. He currently boasts the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FD (+3.7) at 13 to 16 percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million.
WR – Chris Conley
The Chiefs want to control the ball and establish the run. That’s not good news for Conley, the team’s current No. 2 WR. This week, according to the NFL Matchups tool, he will face off primarily against David Amerson, Pro Football Focus’ fifth-overall corner this year. Even at just $4,600 on FD, Conley’s a risky play, as it’s tough to imagine Smith supporting more than one WR in the passing game consistently. Conley has just a 14.11 percent target share through the past four weeks.
TE – Travis Kelce
Accounting for a 17.79 percent target share in the past four games, Kelce is a key member of the Kansas City passing game. He is tied for third in the league in red-zone targets (eight) and leads the team with a 33.3 percent target share in the red zone. Kelce has by far the best Projected Plus/Minus on DK among TEs this week and the third-highest projected ceiling. Kelce almost always has GPP appeal and faces a Raiders defense that has allowed the most yards per target to opposing tight ends in the league this season (10.1).
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
This isn’t an easy matchup for Carr, as the Chiefs defense ranks sixth in pass DVOA this season. However, Carr quietly boasts the seventh-highest Passer Rating (102.3) through five weeks. He is a reasonable GPP play at five to eight percent projected ownership in the Milly Maker, but the Chiefs have allowed multiple touchdowns just once this year and boast the second-lowest DK Opponent Plus/Minus (-2.8) on the slate. Carr has the ninth-lowest Projected Plus/Minus (+2.5) on DraftKings in Week 6.
RB – Latavius Murray
Murray (toe) is out. Get ready for the trio of terror.
RB – DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard
In a three-way committee in Week 5, both Washington and Richard had 14 touches. Richard had 97 total yards compared to just 52 for Washington. Jamize Olawale also received six carries and scored a goal-line touchdown. Both Washington and Richard are risky GPP darts, even in a decent matchup against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season and is FO’s 27th-ranked unit against the run. Could either hit value? Sure. But smashing value in tournaments will be difficult unless you pick the right guy. Oakland said they would ride the hot player last week but failed to follow through with that promise.
WR – Amari Cooper
Last week, we talked about how “a breakout was imminent” with Cooper, as he had left some big plays on the field to start the season and was still seeing a very high percent of the Raiders’ Air Yards — a predictive stat for big plays.
Finally. And it could have been even bigger if he didn’t have three — yes, three — touchdowns called back. Sure, he could have had more sideline awareness on two of those, but at least Cooper got into the end zone on a 64-yard touchdown grab. His inefficiency in the red zone is still a problem, but at least he saw three targets from inside the 20-yard line in Week 5. It’s a start for one of the league’s most physically-talented players. With his team-leading 23.38 percent target share in his last four games, he will face a Chiefs defense with the sixth-best pass DVOA. However, they are 10th against WR1s and Cooper is likely to spend the majority of his day running routes against Phillip Gaines (PFF’s fifth-largest advantage in Week 6), according to the NFL Matchups tool. He is currently the ninth-highest rated WR in the FD Bales Model and comes with a high 21 to 25 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership
WR – Michael Crabtree
It is a week to avoid Crabtree in cash, according to our Matchups tool: He will see a large portion of his snaps against Marcus Peters, Pro Football Focus’ 14th-ranked cornerback in 2016. The tough matchup lowers his ceiling in GPPs even though he currently has a 9 to 12 percent projected ownership range. Per our Trends tool, wide receivers at home with comparable salaries and projected points on DK typically perform below expectation:
WR – Seth Roberts
It is clear that Carr trusts Roberts in the area of the field that matters the most for DFS purposes, as he leads the team with six targets inside the 20-yard line. He has three touchdowns through the first five weeks. However, he holds very little value outside of his touchdown equity, as he is averaging just 2.4 receptions and 21 yards per game. For that reason, he is currently the seventh-lowest rated player in our FD Tournament Model.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford (knee) was inactive last week but has practiced this week. He is officially questionable but expected to play. He’s had a limited impact through four weeks and things won’t get easier against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 0.2 points below salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months — the second-best mark in the league. There are better punt GPP options out there, but if you are inclined to play Walford, he is just $2,600 on DraftKings in Week 6.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
