The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Broncos at Chargers
The San Diego Chargers host the Denver Broncos in a Thursday night divisional matchup. This game has a Vegas total of 45.5 currently. The Broncos will look to rebound from their first loss of the season and are three-point road favorites implied for 24.25 points; the Chargers are currently implied for 21.25 points at home.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
If Paxton Lynch did anything last weekend, it was giving Siemian a larger margin for error as the Broncos starting quarterback. If Siemian is able to play, he has a great matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the third-most pass attempts (42.2) and yards per game this season (309.2). He is priced at $5,200 on DraftKings and rates as the fourth-highest quarterback in the Cash Model for Week 6; he has a 96 percent Bargain Rating and +3.5 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – C.J. Anderson
Anderson saw his fewest carries of the season (11) last week against the Falcons, but he still holds a 58.18 percent rushing share in the past four games and has gotten five rushes inside the 10-yard line. Anderson has the fifth-most red-zone rush attempts (70.8 percent team rush share) in the league and is tied for the eighth-most inside the 10 (72.7 percent team rush share) through five games. Anderson should rebound and be cash-viable on the Thursday-Monday slate as a road favorite; he’s currently the top RB in both the Cash and Tournament Models on FD, where he holds a 99 percent Bargain Rating and 10 Pro Trends. He faces a Chargers defense that has given up the most receptions per game to opposing running backs (9.6) and second-most FD points (30.3) to the position through five games this year.
RB – Devontae Booker
Booker’s snap share has increased each week and he was barely out-snapped by Anderson (36 to 29) in Week 5. Booker was a proficient pass-catcher in college and the perfect time for an increased role in the passing game would be against the Chargers: They’ve given up the most receptions (9.6) and receiving yards per game (75) to opposing running backs this year. However, this is a situation to monitor, as his current market share still makes him a risky play in DFS; he has just one touch inside the 10-yard line this year and has yet to see more than 10 touches in a single game.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Denver has one of the most concentrated offenses in the league: Over the past four weeks, Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have accounted for 53.03 percent of Denver’s target market share. However, Thomas trails Sanders in target market share (21.21 versus 31.82 percent, respectively), market share of Air Yards (28.61 versus 36.62 percent), and targets inside the 10-yard line (1 versus 6). He is very reliant on efficiency: He’s third in the league in fantasy points per target (2.39) but 31st in targets (34) through five games, per playerprofiler.com. He is fine in GPPs, and remember the Chargers are without their top corner in Jason Verrett, but Thomas is a bit expensive for cash games. Per our Trends tool, WRs comparable in situation, salary, and projection typically do not exceed expectation by much on FD:
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
In the past four games, Sanders is leading the league in target market share (31.82 percent), slightly ahead of Mike Evans (31.52) and Jarvis Landry (30.58). Clearly the top option for Siemian, Sanders is quietly tied for first in the league in red-zone targets (10) and owns a 53.8 percent team target share from inside the 10-yard line. He also has the 13th-highest percentage of Air Yards in the NFL (36.62 percent) — a predictive stat for big-play potential. Sanders is a legit cash-game consideration in Week 6, especially on FD where he boasts the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate (+4.0) and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. This projection is nearly in line with his 2016 season marks so far; he has performed well above salary-based expectations, per our Trends tool:
WR – Jordan Norwood
A minimum-priced option yet again on DK and FD, Norwood is not likely to get enough volume in Week 6 to be anything more than a GPP dart; he has the lowest projected floor for FD on the slate (1.1 points).
TE – Virgil Green
Green has missed the previous three games with a calf injury but said he will play on Thursday night. He has averaged 1.8 fantasy points and 9.2 yards per target on his four targets per game. Still, Siemian is expected to play Thursday night and he’s targeted his tight ends on only 13.9 percent of his passes this season. Denver has a good matchup against a depleted Chargers secondary that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game this season. If he suits up, Green is on the GPP punt radar in Week 6, but the Chargers have given up just one touchdown so far this season to TEs.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
In a pristine matchup, Rivers shredded the Raiders defense for 359 yards and four touchdowns in Week 5. This week, however, he faces his most difficult competition of the season as a home underdog against Denver. The Broncos are allowing the third-worst Average Team Passer Rating (67.5, per teamrankings.com) to opposing quarterbacks and they’re tied for the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed (three) through five weeks. Denver has allowed a stingy -1.8 FD Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks in the past year, and Rivers’ 4.2-point projected floor in our Player Models shows how risky he is this week, especially given his $7,600 price tag on FanDuel. Rivers is ranked dead last in Adam Levitan’s FD Model; chasing Week 5’s points is likely a big mistake against this defense: Per our NFL Matchups tool, Denver likes to get to the quarterback and the Chargers don’t protect theirs especially well:
RB – Melvin Gordon
Gordon is tied for the league-lead in touchdowns (six) through five games and has a 81.52 percent rushing share in his last four. His lack of efficiency and touchdown dependency (46.10 percent of his total FanDuel points) is a bit scary, but it at least is propped up by his league-leading 24 red-zone rush attempts. Further, he owns an 80 percent and 91.7 percent rushing share inside the 10- and five-yard lines. He has zero volume competition and the Broncos may have a stout pass defense, but they have been vulnerable on the ground so far in 2016:
Given these splits and his lack of volume concerns, Gordon could be one of the better GPP plays in this game; people still fear this Denver defense, despite the fact that it has allowed six rushing touchdowns this season — tied for the fifth-most in the league.
RB – Dexter McCluster
This backfield belongs to Gordon. Barring an injury, McCluster isn’t a DFS option.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Denver ranks second against WR1s according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average); they’ve allowed a -1.4 Plus/Minus to WRs on FanDuel in the past 12 months. Benjamin does have the highest projected ceiling (19.1 points on DK) of the San Diego WRs, but it is hard to see anyone in this passing game smashing value against the Denver defense.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Williams is tied for fourth in the league in red-zone targets (eight), leads his team in red-zone target share (23.5 percent), and trails only Benjamin in MS Air (26.18 versus 36.01 percent) in the last four games. On the surface, Williams looks like the best GPP play of the pass catchers because of his red-zone volume. However, that likely won’t matter in Week 6, as (per our Matchups tool) he’s set to line up primarily against Aqib Talib. Denver corners are limiting opposing wide receivers to a -4.0 Plus/Minus on FanDuel this year, by far the lowest rate in the league.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
Inman out-snapped Benjamin and Williams again in Week 5, something he has done every week in 2016. However, he has been targeted more than four times just once this year. Clearly, he is not a focal point of what the Chargers are trying to do on offense and, in a tough matchup against Chris Harris Jr. in the slot, it is no surprise that Inman is currently the second-lowest rated WR in the Bales Model on FD.
TE – Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry
In Gates’ return last week, Henry out-snapped him 43 to 18. It is possible that this is the more logical split going forward, even though the Week 5 sample was likely related to Gates’ hamstring pull and snap count. Henry should still have a role, but he’s no longer the chalk. Even though I expect plenty more work for Henry in Thursday night’s game against the Broncos, it is still a risky situation in any format until this split sorts itself out. With Gates back, Henry’s upside will be diminished; they will likely cannibalize each other in the red zone.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
