NFL DFS Week 6 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Elite Week For Value Running Backs

NFL Week 6 features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

The formula at quarterback has been pretty simple to start the year: Pay up for Josh Allen or spend down for a value option. That remains the same heading into Week 6.

Allen has been phenomenal to start the year. He’s scored at least 30.7 DraftKings points in four of his first five outings, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.14. However, his price has barely budged, increasing from $7,800 in Week 1 to $8,200 for this week’s matchup vs. the Chiefs.

His combination of consistency and upside is nearly impossible to ignore, especially in such a phenomenal matchup. The total on this game leads the slate at 54.0 points, and the Bills implied team total of 28.25 also ranks first on the slate. The Chiefs’ defense also ranks 18th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed at least 376 passing yards in three of their past four games. Add it all up, and it’s another potential smash spot for the best quarterback in fantasy.

Value

If Allen is too expensive, going down to Geno Smith is a reasonable alternative. He doesn’t provide nearly the same ceiling, but he doesn’t have to at just $5,700. Smith has posted a Plus/Minus of at least +5.62 in each of the past three weeks, and he’s played incredibly well to start the year. He currently ranks first in Pro Football Focus grade at the QB position, so it has been a remarkable turnaround for the former Jets’ starter.

Smith also benefits from one of the best matchups of the week. The total on his game isn’t quite as high as Allen’s, but it still ranks second on the slate. The Cardinals have also been vulnerable against the pass this season, giving Smith an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 on DraftKings.

Smith currently owns the fifth-highest median projection in THE BLITZ, but his $5,700 price tag ranks merely 10th among quarterbacks. That makes him one of the best pure values at the position.

Quick Hits

Patrick Mahomes isn’t expected to command quite as much ownership as Allen, but he gets a lot of the same benefits. The Bills’ defense is definitely better than the Chiefs’, but Mahomes is as matchup-proof as it gets. Mahomes has also historically thrived as an underdog, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.39 in nine previous occurrences (per the Trends tool).

With most of the attention landing on Allen and Mahomes in the stud tier, Lamar Jackson could fly a bit under the radar. That makes him an appealing tournament pivot. His upside is arguably just as high, and the absence of Rashod Bateman makes the Ravens a very easy team to stack. Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay combined for more than 50% of the team’s targets last week, so they’re the clear top options.

Tom Brady is another potential option on this slate. Matt Martine breaks down the Bucs’ signal-caller in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

Jonathan Taylor missed last week’s game vs. the Broncos, but he’s expected to return to the lineup vs. the Jaguars. That makes him an interesting buy-low target. He’s been priced as high as $9,900 this season, but he’s down to just $8,000 vs. the Jags.

Taylor has historically provided massive value with a comparable salary. He’s been priced between $7,500 and $8,500 on five previous occasions, and he’s posted an absurd +13.52 Plus/Minus in those contests. In his last three games with a comparable salary, he’s scored 56.4, 27.6, and 37.0 DraftKings points.

The Colts are also slight home favorites in this spot, which is another point in Taylor’s favor. The Jaguars have been solid defensively to start the year, but Dameon Pierce totaled 113 yards and a touchdown against them last week. The Eagles’ ground game torched them for more than 200 yards the week prior, so it’s not a matchup where Taylor is incapable of finding success.

Values

This is an amazing week for value running backs. There are a number of strong options to choose from, and using three in cash games is the ideal strategy.

It starts with Eno Benjamin. He’ll draw the start at the position for the Cardinals, who are without both James Conner and Darrel Williams due to injuries. Benjamin has been effective in limited opportunities to start the year, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt, and he’s been a factor in the passing game as well.

His matchup vs. the Seahawks is also a good one. They’ve played in a ton of shootouts to start the year, and they rank 31st in defensive DVOA.

Finally, this price tag is simply too tempting to pass up. It’s extremely rare to find a playable running back at just $4,700. DraftKings has been extremely aggressive in pricing up backups this season, so the days of getting a sub-$5k running back are largely in the past. When we get one, we need to take advantage.

On the other side of that matchup, Kenneth Walker III is another player who should see a significant spike in value. Starting running back Rashaad Penny went down with an injury – stop me if you’ve heard that before – which opens the door for Walker to serve as the team’s feature back.

Walker is an extremely talented rookie, and he put his talent on display with a 69-yard touchdown run last week. That big-play ability is not a fluke: Walker blazed a 4.38 40-yard dash at the 2022 NFL Combine, which puts him in the 98th percentile for the position (per Player Profiler). He was also a true workhorse during his time at Michigan State, with his Dominator Rating putting him in the 99th percentile.

The Cardinals have been a bit better defensively that the Seahawks, but this matchup still figures to provide plenty of fantasy value all around. The running backs should undoubtedly get in on the fun.

Quick Hits

Rhamondre Stevenson is a bit more expensive than Walker and Benjamin, but he’s another slam-dunk option. He was one of just two Patriots’ running backs active last week – along with Damien Harris – and Harris is not expected to play after suffering an injury. That leaves Stevenson to handle all of the RB work vs. the Browns, and he’s averaged an elite 5.5 yards per carry this season. The Browns are also about as good as it gets from a matchup perspective, ranking dead last in rush defense DVOA.

Alvin Kamara is coming off his best week of the year, despite the fact that Taysom Hill went nuclear. Kamara managed 27.4 DraftKings points without scoring a touchdown, totaling 103 yards on the ground and six catches for 91 yards through the air. He should be busy again as a receiver with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry sidelined, and Hill isn’t going to steal three touchdowns every week.

Something is going on with Cam Akers. He’s not going to suit up for the team in Week 6, and head coach Sean McVay declined to comment on whether or not he’d be a part of the team in the future. Darrell Henderson has been stuck in a timeshare with Akers all year, but he’s going to assume a massive role in Week 6. He could be extremely busy with the Rams listed as 10.5-point home favorites.

Breece Hall broke out in Week 5, and he could have another big performance in store this week vs. the Packers. Matt Martin makes the case in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

It doesn’t get any safer than paying up for Cooper Kupp in NFL DFS. He has an 86% Consistency Rating over the past year, and you can count on one hand the number of times he’s busted. Additionally, he provides more upside than virtually every receiver in fantasy, routinely popping off for 30+ DraftKings points.

Kupp is coming off a routine performance in his last outing: seven catches, 125 yards, and one touchdown. He posted his fourth game with at least 28.9 DraftKings points to start the year, and he’s capable of coming through for fantasy owners in many different ways. He’s a candidate for double-digit catches, 100+ yards, and multiple touchdowns every single week, so there’s no reason to expect anything different vs. the Panthers.

The only question is whether or not you can afford him, and with the value available at running back this week, locking him in is an easy decision.

Value

Rondale Moore stands out as one of the best sources of value at the position on DraftKings. He ranks second in THE BLITZ in Projected Plus/Minus, and he racked up eight targets last week vs. the Eagles. Moore remains used almost exclusively around the line of scrimmage – his average depth of target (aDOT) was just 2.3 yards last week – but that’s not a huge issue if the team is getting you the ball. He also had the only end zone target among the Cardinals’ pass-catchers last week, and he’s typically good for an attempt or two in the run game.

With DeAndre Hopkins sidelined for one more week, Moore should be heavily involved in a game that is expected to feature plenty of offense.

Quick Hits

Tyler Lockett remains arguably the best pure value at the receiver position on DraftKings. His target share wasn’t elite in Week 5, but he made the most of the looks he got. He caught five balls for 104 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in 30.4 DraftKings points. Even though he’s been extremely popular over the past two weeks, his price has yet to budge. Expect him to be one of the highest-owned receivers again this week.

Drake London is coming off back-to-back subpar showings, but he remains one of the most targeted players in football. He’s racked up a 32.8% target market share, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. Kyle Pitts is also questionable, so London could be looking at additional opportunities vs. the 49ers.

Chris Olave is another player who should be busy. He was limited to just 31 snaps last week due to an injury, but he still posted his fourth straight game with a positive Plus/Minus. He should see more opportunities this week in what should be a solid game environment vs. the Bengals.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

Mark Andrews has emerged as the clear top tight end in fantasy. He’s scored four touchdowns over the past four weeks, and he’s had at least 22.9 DraftKings points in three of them. He’s gobbled 32.9% of the Ravens’ targets, which is the third-highest mark in the league, and he leads all tight ends with a 35.4% air yards share.

Andrews also has the potential for more work than usual with Bateman sidelined. He had a 97% route participation with Bateman out of the lineup last week, and he was targeted on 38% of his routes run.

Andrews is a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.

Value

Tyler Higbee has 24 targets over the past two weeks, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five games on DraftKings this season. Only Andrews has seen a higher percentage of his team’s targets this season, and Pro Football Focus credits him with 17.3 expected DraftKings points per game. That’s tied with Andrews for the second-highest mark at the position, and it puts him just barely behind Travis Kelce.

I don’t like the idea of using him in tournaments – he’s projected for around 20% ownership in THE BLITZ – but he’s a reliable option for cash games.

Quick Hits

Kyle Pitts is currently questionable, but he’s hard to ignore if he’s able to suit up. He’s been priced down to just $4,200, which is cheaper than he’s ever been. His previous low was $4,400 in Week 1 of his rookie season, and while he’s been inconsistent, Pitts has displayed a ceiling that very few tight ends can match. He remains one of the most gifted athletes to ever play the position, so buying low on him has some appeal.

Hayden Hurst has had at least seven targets in three of the first five weeks, and he’s scored a touchdown in each of the past two. Overall, he’s been a solid part of the Bengals’ passing attack all year, and he could see a boost in targets if Tee Higgins is ruled out.

Zach Ertz is another tight end who has been excellent to start the year. Marquise Brown has had the most targets on the Cardinals this season, but Ertz is right behind. He’s averaged 16.1 expected DraftKings points per game, which puts him just behind Andrews and Higbee.

Roster Construction

Balanced roster constructions have been the way to go recently, but that’s not necessarily the case in Week 6. The amount of value available at running back opens the door for a strong stars-and-scrubs configuration.

I mentioned this above, but it’s extremely hard for me to get away from the trio of Benjamin, Stevenson, and Walker. Each of those three players has a projected Plus/Minus of at least 7.16 in THE BLITZ, which are easily the top marks of the week.

Using that trio makes it pretty easy to jam in Allen at quarterback and Kupp at receiver, and it’s hard to beat that duo. You can forgo Kupp in favor of a more balanced approach at receiver, but I love having Kupp whenever possible. He’s like a safety blanket that you know is good for 20+ every single week.

That doesn’t leave a ton of room for the rest of rest roster, but it’s definitely doable. Using Moore at wide receiver and a cheaper tight end like Hurst works.

As usual, we don’t have to get quite as creative on FanDuel. Benjamin and Walker still stand out as elite value plays at running backs, but we don’t necessarily need to use Stevenson at $7,500. He’s still a viable option, but I’d probably rather go with Taylor for just $500 more.

Allen becomes even more of a must-play given the increased salary cap and his 75% Bargain Rating, while Andrews is significantly easier to fit in at TE.

Using Andrews means we probably have to sacrifice Kupp at receiver, but that’s a trade I’m willing to make. There are plenty of strong receivers in the $6-$7k range, including London, Olave, Michael Pittman, and D.K. Metcalf.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!