As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
Week 5 saw yet another one-lineup player takedown the Milly Maker, with buckeye151 finishing first in the 207,215-entry contest with a single lineup. Let’s look below to see how he did it.
The Lineup
The Stack
Based on the name buckeye151, I’m guessing this player is from Ohio. I mention that because he built this lineup around a Bengals single-stack, pairing Ja’Marr Chase — one of the week’s best projected wideouts — with his quarterback Joe Burrow. Chase was a fairly popular play, but not many people brought it back with Burrow, and even fewer used a single stack with no bringback.
It made sense to do so in a contest like this. With Tee Higgins out for the Bengals, Chase was likely to see an overwhelming majority of the looks from Burrow. Chase has a top-12 target share in the league on the season at 28%, with Higgins a bit over 22%.
Chase ended up accounting for over 60% of the Bengals passing yards and all three of their touchdowns, with no other pass catcher posting a “had to have it” score in GPPS.
Forgoing the customary bringback on the Cardinals made sense too. Arizona has a less concentrated offense and were capable of putting up points without producing a single top fantasy score. That, or this presumed Bengals fan didn’t want to root for the opposing team.
Other Correlations
Lions running back David Montgomery was the easiest selection of the week. Detroit is one of the run-heaviest teams in the league and were massive favorites while missing their 1B running back and top wide receiver. Montgomery had a massive touch projection, and while he ended up with “only” 19 carries, he would’ve had more had he not housed one for a 42-yard score.
For Montgomery to hit a true ceiling game, he did need some help from the Panthers. He was at risk of being benched before hitting the 100-yard bonus if Carolina didn’t keep things somewhat competitive deeper into this one. They did so through their top target, Adam Thielen, who also hit the bonus across 11 catches while adding a touchdown. Opposing RB/WR is an oft-overlooked but strong correlation that I try to work into my GPP rosters.
This lineup also paired Jets running back Breece Hall with their defense, a classic pairing built on the idea that a positive game script leads to more opportunities for the defense to pile up sacks and turnovers while those defensive plays help provide more chances for the ground game.
That pairing paid off as well against a bad Denver team. The Jets sacked Russel Wilson four times, recovered three fumbles, and forced an intentional grounding in the end zone that turned into a safety. That led to 22 carries for Hall, who converted them into 177 yards against a bad Broncos defense.
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The Chalk
Outside of Montgomery and Hall — both of whom were correlated with less chalky pieces — the most owned player in this lineup was De’Von Achane. He was a fairly obvious pick, who I wrote about extensively in my Week 5 Main Slate Breakdown.
While he continues to split carries with Raheem Mostert, Achane’s absurd efficiency saw him turn 11 carries into 151 yards and a touchdown. The game flow prevented much passing-game work, so it wasn’t a monster game for Achane, but he still more than 4x’d his modest salary.
The Sleepers
Both Joe Burrow and the Jets defense qualify as sleepers in this lineup. It’s always good to fade chalky defenses, with the most popular pick this week being the Titans. Tennessee scored just one point at 18% ownership, while four units hit double-digit points at single-digit ownership.
The same holds true at tight end, where outside of a few star players, the bulk of the production comes via semi-random touchdowns. Dallas Goedert was a contrarian way to attack a solid game environment, and he provided excellent leverage over the three chalky tight ends. He also outscored them all, despite solid games from Travis Kelce and Sam Laporta — both of whom were more expensive.
The biggest sleeper here was Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ seldom-used No. 2 wide receiver. The Chiefs shifted their defense heavily to the chalky Justin Jefferson, leaving space for Addison throughout the game. He got another boost when Jefferson left the contest with an injury, which may have been the difference for bukeye151 between winning and second or third place.
