The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Titans at Dolphins
As of Friday afternoon, this game is still scheduled to be played on Sunday, despite Hurricane Matthew.
The Dolphins will host the Titans as 3.5-point favorites this Sunday. The Titans’ implied total of just 20 points is the fifth-lowest in Week 5. The Dolphins are implied to score 23.5 points and will look to pick up their second win of the season. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field on Sunday.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Through four weeks, Mariota has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes and is yet to surpass 275 passing yards in a game. With that said, he’s shown in his brief career that he is a better quarterback on the road:
As our Trends tool shows, Mariota has posted a +3.04 Plus/Minus with 74 percent Consistency in his eight career road games. Still, his average of 18.5 DraftKings points would rank 16th among all quarterbacks this season, indicating that while Mariota may be a better quarterback on the road, his version of “better” is still just about league average. He’s priced at $5,400 on DK this week and has a low 6.3-point projected floor. Mariota has a tough matchup against a Dolphins defense that has allowed 1.7 points below salary-based expectations to QBs over the past 12 months.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Through four games, Murray is the No. 1 fantasy back in football. He’s put to rest any talk of a committee backfield, as he had 25 rushes compared to just three for Derrick Henry during the Titans’ Week 4 loss to the Texans. Perhaps the most impressive part of Murray’s 2016 season has been his ability to dominate regardless of game script thanks to his emergence as a receiving threat. The Titans have been underdogs in each of their four games this season, but Murray’s 19 receptions — second-most among all running backs — have helped him post a +11.29 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency despite his dog status. He’s priced at $8,400 on FanDuel with an 89 percent Bargain Rating, although his $1,900 salary increase is the third-highest among all RBs this season. Murray will face a Dolphins defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league this season.
RB – Derrick Henry
Henry’s three touches during the Titans’ Week 4 loss to the Texans were his fewest this season. He hasn’t played poorly, but he’s averaging just 0.59 fantasy points per opportunity, which ranks 48th among all RBs this season. Henry is priced at $3,400 on DK and has a +1.1 Projected Plus/Minus, but he doesn’t touch the ball enough to be worth fantasy consideration, even against a Dolphins defense that has allowed 2.7 points above salary-based expectations to RBs over the past 12 months.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Kendall Wright returned in Week 3, but Sharpe still worked as the offense’s No. 1 wide receiver. Still, it’s clear at this point that Delanie Walker will continue to be the Titans’ primary pass catcher in 2016. Sharpe is averaging eight targets per game, but he could be looking at a reduced workload sooner rather than later. Coach Mike Mularkey said Sunday that he has taken a step back over the last two weeks and is “rushing things.” Despite his recent poor play, Sharpe does have a nice matchup against a Dolphins secondary that is lacking in shut-down corners. PFF has graded Bobby McCain as the unit’s best cornerback this season, but he’s still outside the top-50 highest-graded cornerbacks in the league. Sharpe is priced at $4,400 on DK this week and has five DK Pro Trends.
WR – Kendall Wright
Wright played 25 snaps in his 2016 debut, catching two of his three targets for just 14 yards. It was evident he was rusty, but he has a better matchup this week against a Dolphins defense that has allowed a 51.77 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months — the third-worst rate in the league. Wright is priced at the DK-minimum and has a 9.3-point projected ceiling.
WR – Andre Johnson
Rishard Matthews was the Titans’ only sign of life outside of Murray this past Sunday, as he caught both of his targets for 82 receiving yards. Of course, the Titans being the Titans, Matthews was informed this week that Andre Johnson will be taking his starting job.
In other news, Andre Johnson is still in the NFL. Apparently his goal is to ‘Make the Four’ by signing with the Jaguars next year.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker said Tuesday that he was about 75 percent healthy during the Titans’ Week 4 loss to the Texans. It showed, as he was able to haul in only two of his team-high eight targets on the day. Walker should be healthier for this week’s matchup against the Dolphins and he’s also historically performed well in matchups with a similar implied score:
In 12 games with a similar implied score, Walker has posted a +5.83 Plus/Minus with 75 percent Consistency and averaged 14.12 DraftKings points. This week he’s priced at $6,400 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and his seven FD Pro Trends are tied for the second-most among all tight ends. However, Walker will likely see a lot of Reshad Jones, PFF’s fourth-highest graded safety of 2016.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill seems perfectly content checking down to Landry when the offensive line breaks down. Despite that, he’s completed just 63.8 percent of his passes this year, which ranks 18th in the NFL. Tannehill has thrown under 200 passing yards and recorded single-digit touchdowns in his two road games this year; he has pretty significant home and away splits the last two seasons:
He does get the benefit of being at home in Week 5, but it will be against a Titans defense that has held QBs to 2.5 points under salary-based expectations on DK this year. It’s hard to trust him in cash games given the matchup, but considering the mess that is the Dolphins backfield, Tannehill may be forced to air it out. As a result, he does hold some GPP value.
RB – Arian Foster
Foster apparently made progress in practice this week but is still officially listed as doubtful. He’s not expected to play this week, and in his place Jay Ajayi would presumably ‘lead’ a committee.
RB – Jay Ajayi
Somehow, Ajayi led this committee in Week 4 with six carries for 33 yards. That tells you all you need to know about what part of this offense you should avoid. Ajayi may indeed be a decent all-purpose back, but the more important thing is that the coaching staff doesn’t seem to agree. The Dolphins have been spreading the love, which is less than ideal for a position that is so heavily dependent on volume for fantasy success. Their rushing market share graph shows why this is a backfield with a ton of risk:
This week Ajayi will face a Titans defense that has given up just one rushing touchdown and the fifth-fewest FanDuel points to running backs this season.
RB – Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake
It would be shocking if either player emerged in this backfield with just 27 touches combined all season. Projected for just 3.7 and 3.5 points on FanDuel in a four-way committee, it is hard to consider either in any DFS contest in Week 5.
WR – Jarvis Landry
He leads the league in target market share (33.85 percent) and has nearly 10 percent more targets than anyone else on the Dolphins roster. The Titans have been the seventh-best defense against WR1s according to Football Outsiders, but Landry remains a safe cash-game play on pure volume. He currently boasts a top-10 floor on both DraftKings and FanDuel and will continue to see a large share of targets from Tannehill in the short-to-intermediate passing game and on check downs as an extension of the running game.
WR – DeVante Parker
Landry is soaking up the majority of the volume, but Parker is second on the team in target market share at 16.15 percent. However, he is seeing high quality targets with a 25.15 percent market share of Air Yards (MS Air). He finished third in WR snaps behind both Landry and Stills for the third straight week. Per our NFL Matchups tool, Parker could see a lot of Titans cornerback Perrish Cox this Sunday. Cox is one of PFF’s lowest-graded cornerbacks this season. The Titans have already given up big games to Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, Michael Crabtree, and Will Fuller through the first four weeks. However, after scoring a touchdown in back-to-back games, Parker did his famous disappearing act in Week 4; he remains better suited as a high-upside GPP play in Week 5 until he can show more consistency.
WR – Kenny Stills
Stills caught just one pass in Week 4 but it was a 74-yard bomb from Tannehill that he took for a touchdown. Unsurprisingly, Stills is seeing the highest MS Air on the team at 31.66 percent; he’s top-25 in the NFL in that category. He will continue to have opportunities in three-wide sets and will battle for targets with Parker. Stills’ 21.3-yard average depth of target (aDot) makes him a volatile player week-to-week, but he does have value in large-field GPPs because of his big-play ability. Per Football Outsiders, the Titans were the eighth-worst team last year against No. 3 and other supplementary wide receivers; Stills is only $3,600 on DraftKings with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Dion Sims
There still is no timetable for Jordan Cameron’s return; in his place last week Sims gained just nine receiving yards on two targets. Tannehill has targeted his tight ends on under 15 percent of his pass attempts over the past 12 months, which shows how low Sims’ ceiling is in this offense. He does have a good matchup against a Titans defense that finished in the bottom-eight in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to the position in 2015. However, they’ve been better through the first four weeks of 2016, ranking 14th against TEs per Football Outsiders. Sims is GPP dart at the very best.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
