The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Texans at Vikings
The Vikings are 6.5-point favorites for their Week 5 matchup against the Texans. The Texans are currently implied to score just 16.75 points, which is the lowest mark in Week 5. The Vikings will look to remain undefeated and are implied to score 23.25 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday afternoon.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Through four weeks, Osweiler is yet to throw for over 275 yards or three touchdowns in a single game. The root of his problems seems to be his inability to get the ball downfield. Osweiler is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, which ranks just 28th among all quarterbacks this season. Even when he has thrown downfield, the results haven’t been great: He’s completing just 33 percent of his throws of 20 yards or more, per playerprofiler.com. Osweiler is priced at $5,300 on DraftKings with a 92 percent Bargain Rating, but he’s a very risky play considering the Vikings have held Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Eli Manning-led offenses to 14 points or less over the past three weeks. Overall, the Vikings have allowed 1.1 points below salary-based expectation to QBs over the past 12 months.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller leads all running backs with 26.5 touches per game this season. This workload gives him a high 11.5-point projected DK floor for Week 5, but he’ll have to overcome his historically poor performances in games with similarly-low implied totals:
The fact that Miller hasn’t played in a game with an implied total below 18 points over the past three seasons tells you just how good this Vikings defense is. As our Trends tool shows, Miller has posted a -1.82 Plus/Minus with 14.3 percent Consistency and averaged just 10.33 DK points in his seven games with an implied total below 20 points. He’s priced at $6,300 on DK this week and will have to earn every yard he gets considering the Vikings are just one of three teams to have not allowed a run over 20-plus yards this season, per NFL.com.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue ripped off a 17-yard run during the Texans’ Week 4 win over the Titans but will continue to be a non-factor in fantasy, as he is averaging just three touches per game. He’s minimum-priced across the industry but won’t offer any value unless Miller misses time.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins had more tackles than receptions last Sunday; he struggled against consistent double-teams and was unable to get going all afternoon. Will Fuller was drafted in hopes of taking some of the pressure off of Nuk, but thus far teams have still focused their attention on limiting Hopkins. The Texans offense has responded by not forcing the ball to him nearly as often as they did in 2015. Hopkins ranked 10th among all wide receivers in targets per snap last season but has fallen all the way to 50th in 2016. It’s likely he’ll see a lot of Xavier Rhodes this week, who has emerged as one of the league’s best cornerbacks this season. On 23 targets, Rhodes has allowed a passer rating of 0.0, zero touchdowns, and just 23 receiving yards through the first four games of the season. Hopkins has his work cut out for him, although he’s a contrarian GPP option due to his zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on FanDuel. He is $8,200 with a 92 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Will Fuller
Through four weeks, Fuller leads the Texans in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He’s taken full advantage of opponents paying more attention to Nuk, as Fuller has posted a +9.41 Plus/Minus and averaged 18.83 DraftKings points per game. Although his specialty is being a deep-ball threat, the Texans have also fed him the ball near the goal line: He has more red-zone targets than Hopkins this season. Fuller is priced at $7,200 on FD this week and his salary has now risen by $1,600 since the season opener. He has the potential to go off on any given week, but he’ll need to overcome a tough Vikings secondary that has allowed just nine passes of 20-plus yards this season — tied for the fourth-fewest in the league.
WR – Braxton Miller
Miller (hamstring) has practiced this week and is fully expected to play. On the season, the rookie has nine yards on six targets in two games played.
WR – Jaelen Strong
Strong received a season-high six targets in Week 4 but has continued to struggle to do much with his opportunities. He’s averaging a brutal 4.2 yards per target this season and could be sent back to the bench with Miller’s return.
TE – Ryan Griffin
Griffin has quietly become a much larger part of the Texans offense during the past two weeks. His 14 targets in Weeks 3 and 4 are tied for seventh among all tight ends, and he figures to play more snaps now that blocking TE C.J. Fiedorowicz is dealing with a sprained MCL. Still, Griffin is yet to receive a red-zone target this season, which severely limits his upside. He’s minimum-priced on DK this week and has a +1.5 Projected Plus/Minus. Griffin has a steep challenge in front of him in Harrison Smith, PFF’s third-highest graded safety of 2016.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
Since his masterful performance against the Packers in Week 2, Bradford has averaged just 216.5 passing yards and one touchdown per game. He is not in an offense that is designed to produce big passing performances. This is evident from his 7.8 aDOT, the seventh-lowest average among all QBs. Bradford is priced at $5,100 on DK with a 99 percent Bargain Rating this week, but his 2.6-point projected floor is the lowest among all QBs in Week 5. Considering the Texans defense has allowed three points below salary-based expectation to QBs over the past 12 months, Bradford is a high-risk, low-reward play for Week 5.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
In two weeks as the Vikings’ featured back, McKinnon has averaged 19.5 touches per game. He now has six games under his belt with 15 or more carries, and the results have been promising thus far:
Overall, he’s averaged 4.95 yards per carry in his six games with at least 15 rush attempts, per the RotoViz Game Splits app. Although McKinnon’s touchdown totals have been non-existent in the past, he received five red-zone touches compared to just one for Matt Asiata during the Vikings’ Week 4 win over the Giants. McKinnon is priced at $4,000 on DK with a 90 percent Bargain Rating, and his 18.7-point projected ceiling is the second-highest among all RBs priced under $5,000. He could be asked to run often considering the Texans have allowed a 43.91 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months — the third-best rate in the league.
RB – Matt Asiata
Asiata played just 29 snaps compared to 46 for McKinnon in Week 4. He continued to struggle and hasn’t been able to get anything going this season, gaining just 48 rushing yards on 22 carries. Asiata did vulture McKinnon on one touchdown, but after two weeks it’s clear that Asiata is the No. 2 back in the offense and not the ‘1B.’ He’s priced at $3,500 on DraftKings with a 93 percent Bargain Rating, but he’s a touchdown-dependent option due to his uncertain workload.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs (groin) hasn’t practiced since Wednesday and is officially doubtful to play this week. He could easily be held out through the team’s Week 6 bye. In his absence, perhaps C-Patz can have that famous fourth-year breakout we’re all waiting for.
If Diggs does play: After an unbelievable start to the season in which Diggs was the NFL’s leading receiver through two weeks, he struggled against the Panthers and Giants, averaging just 4.5 receptions for 43.5 yards and zero touchdowns. The issue could be that Diggs hasn’t had much of a chance to make plays down the field. His aDOT through the first two weeks of the season was at 12.3 yards, but this has fallen to just 7.4 yards over the past two weeks. Diggs has shown the ability to be a great receiver, but there’s a chance the rest of his season could look more like Weeks 3 and 4 than Weeks 1 and 2. He’s priced at $6,300 on DK and faces a Texans defense that has allowed 0.5 points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson notched 36 snaps in Week 4, his most since November of 2014. The Vikings appeared to be fed up with the lack of production from Charles Johnson and proceeded to feed Patterson six touches. He lined up on the outside, in the slot, and even in the backfield. He ended up with a modest 40 total yards on six touches, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction after he gained just eight receiving yards during the entire 2015 season. At 6’2″ and 216 lbs., Patterson combines great size with 4.4 speed and was able to convert seven of his 45 receptions as a rookie into gains of 20 yards or more. He’s a risky option this week since it’s not a given that this type of usage will continue, but he costs the minimum on DK and could see a lot of slot corner Kareem Jackson — PFF’s 76th-highest graded cornerback of 2016.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen out-snapped Johnson 39 to 22 in Week 4, although he received one less target. Neither is a recommended fantasy option considering they’re the third and fourth WRs on a team that has called the sixth-fewest pass plays in the league this season.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph (clavicle/rib) didn’t practice on Wednesday but returned to practice on Thursday and is expected to play in Week 5.
Rudolph has been playing arguably the best football of his career. He’s third among all tight ends with 14.8 fantasy points per game this season, largely thanks to his featured role in the offense. Rudolph’s 20.1 percent hog rate (targets per snap) is ranked third among all tight ends this season. He’s priced at $3,600 on DraftKings this week and has a +5.0 Projected Plus/Minus.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
