The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Redskins at Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens and Washington Redskins square off in the NFL version of the Battle of the Beltway. The game currently owns the eighth-highest Vegas total in the slate at 45.5 points. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites and implied to score 24.5 points. The Redskins are implied to score 21 points — the ninth-lowest mark in Week 5.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
Baltimore’s defense has been excellent in 2016. They currently rank fourth overall in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average and ninth against the pass. Cousins struggled for the first two weeks of the season but has turned it around a bit recently with five touchdown passes in his last two games. Per our Trends tool, opposing quarterbacks playing in Baltimore have been held to a -3.47 Plus/Minus this season. Since 2014, however, Cousins has averaged 19.49 DraftKings points per game with average tournament ownership under one percent when playing as a road underdog. Playing Cousins in cash games would not be advisable this week, but stacking him with a Redskins pass catcher or two in DK’s Millionaire Maker could prove to be profitable.
RB – Matt Jones
There is no doubt Jones is the lead dog in Washington’s backfield. His 69.41 percent rushing share is the sixth-highest mark in the NFL. Last week he handled a massive 84.62 percent of the Redskins’ carries. The Redskins offensive line was just ranked fourth by Pro Football Focus through the first four games. However, Baltimore ranks No. 1 in Rushing DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and has held opposing running backs to just 12.9 fantasy points per game in 2016. This is not a matchup to test in cash games. That said, Jones does get enough volume to warrant being a contrarian play in large-field GPPs on DK, where he has a 96 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Chris Thompson
Thompson continues to see very limited opportunity: He had just four targets and three carries in Week 4. It’s conceivable that his role could increase this week if Washington is playing from behind. However, Cousins attempted 89 passes in the first two games of the season and Thompson was targeted just five times. If you’re determined to be contrarian, FantasyLabs’ (incredibly accurate) projected ownership of Thompson is zero to one percent on both sites.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Jackson ranks third on the Redskins in target share (17.12 percent) but leads the team in market share of Air Yards (MS Air) at 28.44 percent. Even though the Ravens have been great against the pass overall, they have struggled defending team’s No. 1 wide receivers (ranked 27th per Football Outsiders). So far this season, WRs with projected ceilings comparable to Jackson’s have produced a +5.01 Plus/Minus on FD. Jackson is an excellent play in the Sunday Million on FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Jamison Crowder
Crowder came back to earth in Week 4 when he was targeted just three times. He does, however, rank second on the Redskins in targets this season. He’s also tied with three other players for the team lead in most touches inside the 10-yard line. Per our NFL Matchups tool, Crowder can expect to see his fair share of Ravens slot corner Tavon Young, who has an excellent 80.2 grade from PFF. This isn’t a great spot for Crowder on paper, but his FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in FD’s Sunday Million makes him a viable tournament play.
WR – Pierre Garcon
Garcon has quietly increased his involvement in the passing game each week. He has now out-snapped Crowder for two straight games and his 16.44 percent target share is getting dangerously close to Jackson’s. Garcon currently has a top-15 rating in CSURAM88’s Player Model for DK. Like all the Redskins WRs this week, Garcon is a contrarian play in tournaments.
TE – Jordan Reed
I won’t remind you that I said not to be left wishing you had rostered Reed the week he had a multiple-TD game, and then he went out and had two touchdowns in like the first three minutes of the game. S*it. I just did. Reed has a 91 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel this week, where his FantasyLabs projected ownership is the second-highest among TEs. In the last five games that Reed has had a similar projected floor on FD, he has provided a +5.66 Plus/Minus with 60 percent Consistency.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco has looked shaky this season. He struggled against a Raiders defense that is ranked 28th against the pass per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. In that game, he threw for only 298 yards and one touchdown on 52 attempts. This week, Flacco faces off against a Redskins defense that is much stronger against the pass than they are against the run. We should expect Baltimore to do their best to establish the run and play strong defense. Flacco has a 5.5-point floor on FD and a 43 percent Bargain Rating there.
RB – Terrance West
West operated as the clear lead back in Week 4, handling 88 percent of running back carries. However, West saw no receiving targets in this game. He did operate as the goal-line back, punching in a touchdown from the three-yard line. Even after this performance, coach John Harbaugh said that he does not know how the Ravens’ running back touches will be handled when Kenneth Dixon is back. Dixon is set to be back this week.
Against a Washington defense that is allowing an average of 133 rushing yards and two touchdowns per week, West has huge upside. If he is able to hold off Dixon, he should be able to have success against this defense. He has a 17.2-point projected DK ceiling this week.
RB – Kenneth Dixon
Dixon is a total unknown this week. Harbaugh has not given any clarity on his planned running back usage for the week, but we know they plan to have Dixon active. There are beat reports hinting that Dixon could be used in the pass-catching role that Buck Allen handled last week. However, if Dixon ends up with the ‘hot hand,’ he could outsnap West and surprise a lot of DFS players. With an uncertain role, Dixon is hard to roster but looks to be a possible problem for West’s ceiling.
Dixon is officially listed as questionable but has practiced fully all week and is expected to play.
RB – Javorius Allen
Allen was finally active in Week 4, as the Ravens shut down Justin Forsett. Unfortunately, Allen saw only three carries and three targets, even in a game in which the Ravens mostly trailed the Raiders. With Dixon set to be active this week, Buck may end up being a healthy inactive again.
WR – Steve Smith
Smith has been electric over the last two weeks, catching 16 of 22 targets for 198 yards and a touchdown. This has also coincided with Smith’s increased usage in the slot, where he is now running 44 percent of his routes on the season. (Here’s another weekly reminder that the move to the slot rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald‘s career.) Smith is back in the saddle as the top option in Baltimore, and after back-to-back games with 11 targets there is little reason to believe his volume will fade.
This week Baltimore faces off against Washington; Smith will seemingly avoid Josh Norman on 40 percent or more of his routes. We should also note that Terrelle Pryor was shadowed by Norman in Week 4 but still caught five of nine passes for 46 yards and a touchdown. Smith is the second-highest rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s Player Model this week. Washington is allowing a +3.0 Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers on DraftKings.
WR – Mike Wallace
With Smith in the slot, Wallace looks to see a lot of Norman. After a quick start to the season with three touchdowns in two weeks, Wallace has come back to earth, gaining less than 50 yards receiving in back-to-back games. Wallace has a nice matchup against a Washington defense that is allowing a +2.5 Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers on FanDuel. Even with this matchup, Wallace has a low 5.5-point projected floor in Week 5.
WR – Breshad Perriman
Perriman played the third-most snaps for the Ravens in Week 4, but that was still only 36 percent. He did see five targets but that was in a game in which Flacco attempted 52 passes. Perriman will have trouble making an impact with this little playing time and target volume.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta was out-targeted by Kyle Juszczyk in Week 4; Pitta saw five targets compared to Juice’s seven. This does seem like a fluke, as Juice had only six targets over the first three games. However, it is something to monitor and the situation makes Pitta more difficult to roster on DraftKings now that his price has risen. Pitta still saw 66 percent of the snaps, while Juice saw only 44 percent. Pitta has a much better price on FanDuel ($5,500), where he has an 88 percent Bargain Rating and is the second-highest rated TE in the Adam Levitan Model.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
