The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Giants at Packers
The Sunday Night Football game currently has a 48-point implied Vegas total. The home Packers are 7.5-point favorites with an implied total of 27.8 points — the second-highest of the slate. The Giants are visiting underdogs with a 20.3-point implied total.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Green Bay has been well below average defending the pass in 2016 (ranked 22nd by Football Outsiders). The Packers have allowed 22.9 DraftKings points per game (fourth-most) so far this season. Eli has attempted 152 passes (11th-most) through the first four games. The implied game script in this one sets up for Manning to pass the ball a whole lot, especially late. Per our Trends tool, Eli has generated a +4.10 Plus/Minus on DK with 60 percent Consistency in prime-time games. Manning is a fine contrarian play in guaranteed prize pools, especially on DK where he has an 83 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings (thumb) was limited in practice throughout the week and is listed as questionable for Week 5. Even if he can play he’ll likely be in a committee, but he’s not expected to play.
The Packers are ranked second against the run this season per Football Outsiders. They have allowed 42.66 rushing yards per game and an NFL-low 11.7 FanDuel points per game to running backs this season. Follow our NFL news feed for the latest updates on Jennings’ playing status. Even if he is able to suit up this week, he’s a fringe GPP dart at best.
RB – Orleans Darkwa
If Jennings can’t go, Darkwa would handle the bulk of the carries for the Giants. RBs playing as road underdogs with comparable spreads have traditionally yielded a -0.73 Plus/Minus on FD.
RB – Bobby Rainey
With Shane Vereen out, Rainey took over pass-catching RB duties for the Giants last week. He was targeted a team-high nine times in the game and played more snaps than Darkwa. With a stout Green Bay run defense shutting down running lanes, Rainey could see a lot of snaps again this week. He’s an interesting stacking option with Eli in the DK Millionaire Maker, where Rainey’s projected ownership is zero to one percent.
WR – Odell Beckham
Per our Trends tool, the last seven wide receivers the Packers have faced with projected ceilings between 18 and 22 have produced a whopping +10.17 Plus/Minus on FD with 85.7 percent Consistency. Green Bay is the second-worst team defending No. 1 WRs this season (per Football Outsiders). Beckham currently owns a massive 40.03 percent market share of Air Yards (MS Air) for the Giants. OBJ currently is a top-five rated player for FD in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Player Models. Beckham is poised for a gigantic day and makes an excellent GPP pivot off the projected mega-chalkiness of Julian Edelman and Antonio Brown.
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard continues to be targeted heavily in the Giants offense. He is second on the team in both targets and Air Yards. Per our Matchups tool, Shepard will have the pleasure of running some routes on Packers cornerback Damarious Randall, whose 40.1 PFF grade leaves him as the 108th-ranked CB in the NFL. With FantasyLabs projected ownership under five percent in both FD’s Sunday Million and DK’s Milly Maker, Shepard could be an affordable Sunday Night hammer.
WR – Victor Cruz
Cruz was targeted a season-high nine times against the Vikings on Monday night. He still remains behind both Beckham and Shepard in target shares, however. Cruz does project to be frequently lined up opposite Ladarius Gunter, whose 79.9 PFF grade ranks him as the Packers’ best corner. Cruz is the least exciting of the Giants’ receiving options this week, but he has been a somewhat affordable way to buy targets in 2016. He’s a better value on FanDuel this week where he has a 78 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Will Tye
Larry Donnell (concussion) has been ruled out for Week 5, so this may finally be the week to use a Giants tight end. Tye will reportedly be the clear starter and is priced at just $2,600 on DK this week, where he sports an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent. Per the RotoViz Game Splits app, Tye has been incredibly more productive without Donnell in the lineup.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers got back on track in the Packers’ Week 3 win over the Lions . . . to an extent. His four passing touchdowns were certainly a step in the right direction, but he threw for just 205 yards. Rodgers is yet to surpass 215 passing yards in a game this season, but could breakthrough this week in a matchup in which he has historically thrived:
As our Trends tool shows, Rodgers has posted a +4.68 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and averaged 24.09 DraftKings points in his last six games at home with a similar implied team total. He’s priced at $7,700 on DraftKings and is the top-rated QB in our Tournament Model. Rodgers will look to feast against a Giants pass defense that has allowed a 50.6 percent pass success rate over the past 12 months.
RB – Eddie Lacy
Lacy hasn’t been bad in 2016 considering he’s averaged over four yards per carry in each of his first three games, but he has now scored just three touchdowns in his last 18 games. He’s had opportunities, specifically three rushes from inside the five-yard line this season, but he’s failed to produce touchdowns in an offense that has reached the red zone the sixth-most times per game this season, per teamrankings.com. This has led to Lacy producing just 0.53 fantasy points per opportunity — the 56th-highest rate among all running backs in 2016. He’s priced at $7,100 this week and faces a Giants defense that has allowed just 3.2 yards per carry this season.
RB – James Starks
Starks received just two touches during the Packers’ Week 3 win over the Lions and doesn’t seem to have much of a role in the offense at the moment. It doesn’t help that he’s gained just nine rushing yards on 12 carries this season. Starks won’t be a fantasy option until Lacy misses time or loses significant snaps.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson has showed very little rust thus far in 2016. He’s posted a +5.16 Plus/Minus and averaged 21.53 DraftKings points — the fifth-most among all wide receivers this season. A large reason for Nelson’s dominance has been due to his red-zone play. His eight targets, six receptions, and four touchdowns inside the 20-yard line are each tied for the most among all wide receivers, per PFR. Nelson will look to overcome a Giants defense in Week 5 that leads the league in opponent red-zone scoring percentage.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb hasn’t quite regained his 2014 form even with the return of Nelson. Part of the issue could be that Cobb has received just six targets per game this season and has historically struggled when not featured in the offense:
Obviously any receiver will perform better with more targets, but in Cobb’s case he really has been a shell of himself when targeted fewer than eight times in a game. However, Week 5 could be just what the doctor ordered, as from 2014 to 2016 Cobb has averaged 10.14 targets in weeks following a game in which he received five or fewer targets. He’s priced at $7,100 on FD with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and has a two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. Cobb does have a tough matchup against slot-corner Leon Hall — PFF’s 15th-highest rated cornerback of 2016.
WR – DaVante Adams
Adams ranked outside of the top-100 receivers in yards per target in 2015 and this has not changed through four weeks of this season. Despite this brutally inefficient play, he’s averaged over seven targets a game over the past two seasons. Still, Adams figures to hold on to the team’s No. 3 wide receiver role for another week and is priced at $3,900 on DraftKings. He could face competition for his spot soon from near-wildcard-hero Jeff Janis, who practiced without a club on Tuesday for the first time this season.
TE – Richard Rodgers
With Jared Cook (ankle) out for Week 5 (and longer), Rodgers will start in his place. He’s performed well in his career with a featured role in the offense:
Although he’s had eight or more targets in just four games, Rodgers has averaged a 6.5-71.25-1 line, good for 19.62 PPR points. He may not see quite that many targets considering he and Cook have combined to average 6.33 targets per game in 2016, but it’s still solid upside for a tight end that costs just $2,900 on DraftKings. Rodgers also faces a Giants defense that has allowed 3.2 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months. He’s the third-highest graded tight end in our Tournament Model.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
