The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Falcons at Broncos
This game currently has a 47-point implied Vegas total. The Broncos are currently 5.5-point home favorites, implied to score 26.25 points. The Falcons are implied to score 20.75 points as road underdogs.
Atlanta Falcons
QB – Matt Ryan
Ryan has been on fire to start this season with QB6, QB2, QB8, and QB1 finishes to date. However, he faces his most difficult competition this week on the road against Denver. The Broncos are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the fourth-fewest passing yards and passing touchdowns. Denver has allowed a stingy -1.6 Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks, and Ryan’s seven-point projected floor in our Player Models shows how risky he is this week, especially given his $7,100 price tag on DraftKings. Outside of a few GPP dart throws, it may be best to let others chase Ryan’s 500-yard performance from last week.
RB – Devonta Freeman
Averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game on DK, Freeman is providing consistent fantasy points despite only two total touchdowns on the season. He’s seen a -$1,900 Salary Change since Week 1, but the Broncos have turned into quite the ‘funnel defense’ this season. Denver ranks top-1o against the pass (per Football Outsiders), but bottom-10 against the run. Per our NFL Matchups tool, Freeman is seeing 64.7 percent of the team’s rushing yards and 16.5 touches per game. Last year, opposing offenses targeted their running backs heavily against Denver (third-most) to avoid their shut-down corners; Freeman could see more touches than usual. If Tevin Coleman (sickle cell) is unable to play or limited in some capacity, that would be an even bigger boost for Freeman, who is $5,000 on DK this week.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Coleman has been a highly-involved player in this Atlanta offense, but he has the potential to be limited in this game due to having a sickle cell trait. He’s set to play now, but be sure to monitor our news feed (at the bottom of this page) prior to lock. If he’s not held back, Coleman also has a shot at exploiting this funnel defense that’s allowing opposing running backs over 100 total yards per game and a touchdown in each contest. Coleman makes for a better play on DK but should be left for only GPPs given his medical risk.
WR – Julio Jones
After a 300-yard receiving performance, all eyes will be on Julio this week to see how he can perform against Denver’s talented trio of cornerbacks. Julio moves all over the formation according to Pro Football Focus, and after last week’s performance he leads all receivers in fantasy points per route run. Denver ranks second against WR1s according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average); they’ve allowed a -1.4 Plus/Minus to WRs on FanDuel in the past 12 months. Julio has FantasyLabs projected ownership of just five to eight percent on both sites, and only Antonio Brown has a higher projected ceiling than Julio’s 22.9 points. He’s definitely an intriguing GPP option in Week 5.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu has run 60 percent of his routes from the slot so far this season, meaning he should see plenty of nickel cornerback Chris Harris Jr. in coverage this week. Sanu has been struggling lately while fighting injuries and the results have been less than ideal:
Harris Jr. is PFF’s third-highest ranked cornerback on the season. Sanu is seeing just 14.4 percent of the team’s targets and averaging 9.1 points per game. There may be better places to look for wide receiver help in Week 5.
WR – Justin Hardy
Hardy has seen his percentage of snaps gradually decline and now has just four receptions on the season. He was not targeted at all in Week 4.
TE – Jacob Tamme
Tamme continues to outperform expectations and has evolved into Ryan’s favorite passing target inside the 10-yard line so far this year:
Tamme’s four targets inside the 10-yard line have only resulted in one touchdown to date, but he’s getting the opportunity to score. Denver has ranked in the middle of the pack against tight ends in receptions, targets, and receiving yards; however, they’ve yet to allow a touchdown to the position. He has FantasyLabs projected ownership ranges of zero to one percent on both sites and a 96 percent Bargain Rating on DK.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
Siemian (shoulder) is questionable and will likely be a game-time decision due. If he’s unable to play, first-round rookie Paxton Lynch will start in his place and would probably represent a small downgrade . . . which is a little sad for both players.
The Falcons defense has allowed the second-most passing yards per game (323.25) and fifth-highest passer rating per game (104.8) this season. As a home favorite with a healthy team total, Siemian (if he starts) could be a viable punt option on DK, where he currently rates third-overall in our Cash Model. More on the matchup: The Falcons defense has also allowed the most passing touchdowns per game (3.25) and DK points (24.25) to the quarterback position this year.
RB – C.J. Anderson
We know that opportunity matters a whole lot for RBs, and Anderson certainly has opportunity. After four games, he is sixth in the league in rush attempts (73), currently holds a 63.48 percent rushing share, sits at third in the league with 17 red-zone rush attempts, and owns a 73.9 percent team red-zone rushing share. Anderson has struggled with efficiency, averaging just 3.45 yards per carry, but he’s scored at least one touchdown in three out of four games this year. Anderson is cash viable as a home favorite; he’s currently the fourth-rated RB in the Bales Model. He has a 92 percent FD Bargain Rating and faces a Falcons defense that has given up the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (26.8) to running backs this season and the most receptions (9.5).
RB – Devontae Booker
Per the Week 5 Market Share Report, Booker has seen just 20.15 percent of the snaps and just one touch inside the 10-yard line on the season; he has yet to see more than 10 touches in a game and has a low projected floor and ceiling.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Thomas trails Emmanuel Sanders in target share (22.13 percent versus 31.97 percent), market share of Air Yards (27.47 percent versus 40 percent), and red-zone target share (25 percent versus 50 percent) — yet he’s still more expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Heavily reliant on efficiency, Thomas is fourth in the league in fantasy points per target (2.41) but 39th in targets (27) through four games. Per sharpfootballstats.com, Demaryius has received the majority of his targets to the short left area of the field:
Per our NFL Matchups tool, Thomas will see the majority of his snaps against Desmond Trufant, who has been giving opposing top receivers trouble all season. If Thomas is going to have success in this game, it’ll likely come when he’s not lining up against Trufant, although this could be a shadow situation.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
Sanders is out-targeting Thomas 42 to 26 through the first four games of the season and Atlanta has already allowed the most pass plays of 25-plus yards so far this year (14). Sanders’ matchup with CB Robert Alford is PFF’s 28th-best advantage in Week 5. Second in the league in target market share (31.97 percent) behind Jarvis Landry and just ahead of A.J. Green and Antonio Brown, Sanders is clearly the top option for Siemian. Sanders is quietly tied for first in the league in red-zone targets and owns a 50 percent team target share from inside the 20-yard line. If that’s not enough to sway you, he has the seventh-highest percentage of Air Yards in the NFL (40 percent) — a predictive stat for big-play potential.
WR – Jordan Norwood
A minimum-priced option yet again on DK and FD, Norwood is not likely to get enough volume in Week 5 to be anything more than a GPP dart.
TE – Virgil Green
Green is on track to return against the Falcons after missing the last two weeks with a calf injury. He practiced this week and is listed as questionable.
If he is able to play, Green is on the GPP punt radar in Week 5 against a Falcons team that has given up the most yards per game (85), touchdowns per game (1.25), and fantasy points per game on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
