The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Eagles at Lions
The Eagles are fresh off a bye and travel to Detroit as three-point favorites. Philadelphia’s implied point total of 24.5 is currently the seventh-highest of the main slate. Despite playing at home, the underdog Lions are implied to score just 21.5 points against a revitalized Philadelphia defense.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
Wentz is Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded rookie quarterback (90.2 out of 100) since they began handing out grades in 2006. According to our Trends tool, the Lions have allowed the most points per game (24.83) and highest Plus/Minus (+7.9) to quarterbacks on FanDuel this season. Football Outsiders agrees with our numbers: They rank Detroit dead last in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass in 2016. Wentz is a top-eight rated quarterback in CSURAM88’s Player Model, he has a top-seven projected ceiling on FD, and his FantasyLabs projected ownership in the Sunday Million is between two and four percent. He’s an excellent GPP play this week.
RB – Ryan Mathews
Here’s an interesting nugget: Despite receiving a total of just 11 carries since Week 1 and sitting out a bye week, Mathews remains just one of six running backs who has gotten 10 touches inside the opponent’s 10-yard line this season. Only Melvin Gordon has gotten more carries inside the 10, and Mathews is tied with Gordon and C.J. Anderson for the NFL lead in carries inside the five-yard line in 2016. Detroit isn’t the worst team in the NFL defending the run this season, but they are the second-worst team (per Football Outsiders). Mathews’ usage (and health) is impossible to trust right now, but with FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, he is clearly worth a shot in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Darren Sproles
Sproles has gotten the third-most targets on the Eagles this season. So far in 2016 (per our Trends tool), RBs facing the Lions who have averaged three targets per game in the past month have destroyed their salary-based expectations, posting a +10.75 Plus/Minus. Sproles is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, as evidenced by his beautiful 73-yard touchdown in Week 3. Also, Sproles has double-dip potential with the Eagles D/ST because of his role as a punt returner.
RB – Wendell Smallwood
Smallwood led the Eagles in carries in Week 3 and didn’t disappoint with 79 yards and a touchdown. Keep an eye on our NFL News page as the week progresses. If news out of Philly suggests that Smallwood will get more snaps and carries than Mathews again this week, you’ll want to get him in your lineups.
WR – Jordan Matthews
While the running back picture may be somewhat cloudy in Philadelphia, we know who’s going to get the targets in the passing game. J-Matt has gotten 25.74 percent of the targets and 39.36 percent of the Air Yards for the Eagles this season. Detroit’s pass defense is horrendous and Matthews should have the pleasure of running routes on Detroit’s slot cornerback Quandre Diggs, whose 45.1 grade from PFF ranks him 98th at the position. J-Matt’s 96 percent Bargain Rating and high target share makes him suitable for cash on FD. Stacking him with Wentz on DK — where Matthews’ FantasyLabs projected ownership is just two to four percent — is a slick move for GPPs.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor looks much improved this season and currently ranks second on the Eagles in both target share and market share of Air Yards (MS Air). Prior to the blowout against Pittsburgh, Agholor was averaging six targets and four catches per game. Per our NFL Matchups tool, Nelson will get the opportunity to line up against Nevin Lawson, whose 47.4 PFF grade is brutally bad. Agholor presents more value on DK this week; he has a 87 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
DGB is like one of those lottery tickets you find face down in the grocery store parking lot. You’ll never know if it will pay off until you take a chance and pick it up. (It probably won’t pay off.)
TE – Zach Ertz
Ertz (ribs) has practiced in full this week and is expected to play in Week 5 against the Lions. That’s great news considering he is currently the top-rated player in the Bales Player Model for DK. Per our Trends tool, Detroit has allowed a +7.1 Plus/Minus to opposing tight ends with a projected floor of at least three points this season. At just $3,500 on DK, Ertz is sure to be nice and chalky this week.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
Researcher: Zachary Rabinovitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford didn’t play well during the Lions’ Week 4 loss to the Bears, but he’s still had a nice start to the 2016 season. He’s averaged 21.58 DraftKings points, which is good for the eighth-most among all quarterbacks. Still, Stafford could be in for a rough matchup against the Eagles, as he’s historically struggled in games with a similar-implied score:
As our Trends tool shows, Stafford has posted a -0.47 Plus/Minus with 50 percent Consistency and averaged just 16.28 DraftKings points in his 16 games with a similar-implied score over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $6,600 on DraftKings this week, but he’ll face an Eagles defense that has given opposing quarterbacks fits this season; they’ve allowed a putrid 57.6 completion percentage — the fourth-lowest mark in the league.
RB – Theo Riddick
Dwayne Washington (foot, ankle) is doubtful for Week 5 and not expected to play. In his absence, Riddick could see a larger workload than normal. If so, Riddick is very interesting given his track record at home, a place where he dominated in 2015:
He posted a +7.75 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and averaged 13.66 DK points in his eight home games last season. Riddick continues to bring a high floor to every game thanks to his position-leading 20 receptions this season. However, the Eagles have done well with limiting receiving backs this season, holding both Duke Johnson and DeAngelo Williams to under 30 receiving yards and five receptions. Riddick is a better bargain on FanDuel this week, where his $6,200 price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He could be forced to do most of his damage through the air, as the Eagles are allowing just 71 rushing yards per game this season — the third-best mark in the league.
RB – Zach Zenner
With Washington unable to play Sunday, Zenner will take over the team’s power-back role. As an athletic second-year player with a history of strong college production, Zenner is intriguing given his dirt-cheap salary.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones’ 74 receiving yards in Week 4 amounted to his worst performance of the season, but he’s still in the upper-echelon of wide receivers through four weeks. He’s averaged 13.4 yards and 2.31 fantasy points per target this season — both top-10 rates among all WRs. This week, Jones is priced at $7,800 on FD with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and his eight FD Pro Trends are tied for the most among all WRs. He will likely see a lot of Leodis McKelvin, who hopes to return from a hamstring injury he suffered during the Eagles’ Week 1 win over the Browns. McKelvin is a difference-maker on defense, as he allowed just 47.2 percent of passes thrown into his coverage to be completed in 2015 — the second-best rate among all cornerbacks per PFF.
Jones is officially questionable for Week 5 but practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate has had a brutal start to the 2016 season. Yes, he’s tied for second on the team in targets, but he’s fifth in receiving yards. He appeared to be briefly benched in Week 4, but coach Jim Caldwell has insisted that was part of the team’s plan. It’s perfectly understandable if you are #done with Tate, but his 18.2-point projected ceiling and his $2,400 salary decrease since the season opener leaves him in group of receivers that have historically played very well:
Over the past three seasons, WRs who have had a salary decrease of $1,500 or more and have a high projected ceiling have balled out. They’ve posted a +6.26 DK Plus/Minus with 67.1 percent Consistency and averaged 18.01 DraftKings points. Tate is not a recommended cash play by any means, but he is an enticing GPP play and has projected ownership of just two to four percent. He’s priced at $4,900 on DraftKings and faces an Eagles defense that has allowed 2.3 points above salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin has averaged seven targets over the past three weeks, but he’s failed to do a lot with the opportunity. His 5.7 yards per target mark ranks outside the top-65 among all wide receivers, and Stafford has spread the ball around inside the red zone fairly equally between his top-five receivers. Still, Boldin could thrive this week if he sees a lot of Ron Brooks, who is PFF’s 90th-highest graded cornerback this season. Boldin is priced at $4,000 on DraftKings with a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Cole Wick and Clay Harbor
Eric Ebron (knee, ankle) is out for Week 5.
Rookie Cole Wick and recently signed Clay Harbor will likely split time in Ebron’s place, although the uncertainty surrounding their number of snaps and role in the offense makes both high-risk options. Additionally, Matthew Stafford has thrown to his tight ends on just 13.5 percent of his passes over the past 12 months.
Finally, Wick and Harbor will be running routes against Rodney McLeod and Malcolm Jenkins, two of PFF’s top-25 highest-graded safeties of 2016.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
