The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Bengals at Cowboys
The Bengals opened as one-point dogs to the Cowboys on the road, but the spread quickly flipped to the Bengals as a one-point favorite. The game has a modest Vegas total of 45 points. The Bengals are currently implied for 23.25 points; the Cowboys are implied for 22.25 points.
Cincinnati Bengals
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Andy Dalton
Excluding his poor outing against Denver, Dalton has averaged 342 passing yards but only one touchdown per game. It’s important to remember that he has been without his top touchdown scorer in 2015, Tyler Eifert. Even without Eifert and the touchdowns, Dalton has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ seventh-best quarterback.
This week Eifert could return, bolstering Dalton’s pass receiving corps that have been lacking outside of A.J. Green. Dallas currently ranks 21st against the pass according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). Unfortunately, the Cowboys’ ball-control style of offense has resulted in allowing a -1.4 Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks on DraftKings. All that said, Dalton boasts a 92 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings and his price is the second-lowest it has been all season.
RB – Jeremy Hill
Hill has proven yet again that his value is almost solely dependent on touchdowns. In three of four games this season where Hill has scored less than two touchdowns, he has less than 10 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Fortunately for Hill, his carry totals have increased for three straight weeks; he got 21 carries in last week’s win over Miami.
This week, Hill makes an interesting DraftKings tournament play, as he faces off against a Cowboys defense that is allowing a +1.3 Plus/Minus to opposing running backs. Hill rates in the top-five in the Bales DraftKings Player Model and is a great bet for a touchdown this week. On FanDuel, Hill is a much tougher sell, rating in the bottom half of RBs in the Bales FD Player Model.
RB – Giovani Bernard
Gio is now averaging 2.7 yards per carry on the season and has received only 29 percent of the rushing market share. Outside of what now looks like a fluky 11-target game in Week 2, Bernard has not topped five targets in any week.
The positive is that Gio is reasonably priced on FanDuel this week and boasts a 92 percent Bargain Rating on the site. He is only viable in tournaments because of his high volatility, but Bernard has shown a very high receiving ceiling at times.
WR – A.J. Green
Green is second in the NFL in receiving market share and third in the NFL in total targets with 44. Green struggled in Weeks 2 and 3 before exploding in Week 4, where he caught 10 of 12 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown. Green has now cleared 170 receiving yards in 50 percent of his games this season. Unfortunately, he has been held under 80 yards in the other half.
According to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool, Green should mostly line up against Brandon Carr. Carr has graded out poorly this year, ranking as PFF’s 82nd-overall cornerback. Although Carr is the worst of the Cowboys’ corners, Green should have no trouble on the other side with Morris Claiborne either. Claiborne ranks outside the top-25 rated PFF corners this season.
Green’s inconsistency has kept his price depressed on both DK and FD, where he costs less than $9,000 on both sites. Green projects to have 17 to 20 percent ownership on both sites. He has nine FD Pro Trends on the week and a 99 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Brandon LaFell
LaFell yet again operated as the WR2 for the Bengals but still trails Gio and C.J. Uzomah on the year in market share of targets. LaFell has cleared 10 DraftKings points only once this season and doesn’t look to be involved enough in this offense to warrant fantasy attention.
WR – Tyler Boyd
After playing 60 snaps in Week 2, Boyd has seen less than 30 in two consecutive weeks. He has also seen more than four targets only once this season. He has limited GPP intrigue until he gets more opportunity in this offense.
TE – C.J. Uzomah
Uzomah has received the third-highest market share of targets in this offense but the results haven’t been there. He has not cleared 10 PPR points yet this season.
TE – Tyler Eifert
Eifert has been ruled out for Week 5. The wait continues.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
Prescott’s 366 Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (per Football Outsiders) is the third-highest mark among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 60 passes this season. The Bengals defense has allowed 10 touchdowns (third-most) to quarterbacks through the first four games. Per our Trends tool, they have yielded a +3.1 Plus/Minus to opposing QBs (10th-highest) in 2016. Prescott’s FantasyLabs projected ownership in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker is less than five percent. Playing Dak in guaranteed prize pools on DK (where he has an 83 percent Bargain Rating) is something you should strongly consider.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott leads the NFL in rushing attempts this season. His 67.14 percent rushing share through the first four games is nearly equal to the market share that stud David Johnson is getting in Arizona. Volume is everything for running backs and there is no cause for concern about volume with Zeke. Elliott is the only RB in the NFL to currently average at least 100 rushing yards per game. He is also one of just six players to have at least 10 touches inside the opponent’s 10-yard line this season. Similarly-priced RBs playing at home and getting comparable market shares have produced a +4.32 Plus/Minus with 73.3 percent Consistency on FanDuel.
RB – Lance Dunbar
Dunbar tied his season-high last week with 17 snaps. That’s not good, but it’s better than the 12 snaps Alfred Morris received. The pass-catching ‘specialist’ has just a 4.65 percent target share through four games and hasn’t been on the field enough to be a fantasy option currently.
Also, he was held out of practice on Friday and isn’t expected to play this week. He’s experiencing issues with the patellar-tendon injury he suffered last year.
WR – Cole Beasley
Beasley is tied with Jason Witten for the Cowboys’ lead in targets (29), and he’s second on the team in market share of Air Yards (20.37 percent) this season. If the Cowboys are without Dez Bryant again, Beasley essentially becomes the Cowboys’ No. 1 wide receiver (how scary is that?). As frightening as that may be, Beasley has provided serious value in the 2016 season. Stacking Beasley with Prescott on FD costs just $12,800, all but ensures you a unique lineup in the Sunday Million, and provides you ample opportunity to load up studs at other positions.
WR – Terrance Williams
T-Will saw a season-high six targets last week with Bryant sidelined. Even with the increased opportunity, Williams totaled only 44 receiving yards in the game. Cincinnati ranks 10th against the pass (per Football Outsiders) but has allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers (6) this season. Williams is a boom-or-bust GPP play to stack with Dak.
WR – Brice Butler
Butler led the Cowboys in targets last week and was second to only Witten in snaps played. More importantly, Butler leads the Cowboys in targets inside the 10-yard line this season. He has a top-six Projected Plus/Minus on both sites. FantasyLabs projected ownership for Butler in the Sunday Million currently sits at zero to one percent. If Dez can’t play, Butler is an extremely intriguing play in all formats. Be sure to check in with our NFL news feed to keep up with the latest on Dez and others before making any decisions.
WR – Dez Bryant
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones isn’t ready to rule Bryant out for Week 5 just yet. Bryant didn’t practice on Friday and isn’t expected to play this week.
If he does play: The Bengals have allowed a -0.6 Plus/Minus to wide receivers this season. According to Football Outsiders, they defend opposing team’s No. 1 wide receivers better than anyone in the NFL this season.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten still has not missed a single offensive snap for the Cowboys this season. He also leads the team in targets (29) and gets to face a defense below average (ranked 18th per Football Outsiders) at defending tight ends this season. While it’s unlikely Witten will have a monster game, the volume he receives makes him an attractive cash-game play on FD, where he has an 88 percent Bargain Rating and a top-eight projected floor per our Player Models.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
