NFL DFS Week 5 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Time For The Breece Hall Breakout?

NFL Week 5 features a 12-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

It’s hard to overlook the consistency and upside of Josh Allen. He’s been phenomenal to start the year, scoring at least 24.52 DraftKings points in each of his first four games. He’s also scored at least 30.7 DraftKings points in three of them, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.04 on DraftKings overall.

Allen is basically matchup-proof at this point, but his matchup vs. the Steelers is a solid one. Their defense has not been the same unit since losing T.J. Watt to an injury, and the Bills lead all teams with an implied team total of 29.75 points. Allen will also take the field as a 14-point favorite, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.31 when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).

Allen is an elite play across the industry, but he’s particularly strong on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $9,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 78%. That’s tied for the third-highest mark at the position.

Value

While Allen possesses the highest ceiling projection in THE BLITZ, there’s no doubt that he’s expensive. With that in mind, Tom Brady might be the superior value. He’s priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings, so he’s significantly easier to fit into a cash game lineup.

Brady has also started to turn things around after a slow start to his season. He’s completely nearly 75% of his passes over the past two weeks, and he erupted for 384 passing yards and three touchdowns last week vs. the Chiefs. Now that his supporting cast is starting to get healthier, it’s possible that Brady is ready to start rolling.

The Falcons are an excellent matchup for a true breakout performance. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.00 on DraftKings, and the Falcons rank just 22nd in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. The Bucs’ implied team total of 28.25 points also ranks second on the main slate.

Quick Hits

If Allen is the 1A on this slate, Jalen Hurts is the 1B. He’s coming off a down performance last week vs. the Jaguars, but he scored at least 30.7 DraftKings points in each of the two previous games. His skill set also remains extremely fantasy-friendly, particularly his rushing ability in the red zone. He’s had 16 attempts from inside the 20-yard line – the second-highest mark in the league – which he’s converted into three touchdowns. He also draws a strong matchup vs. the Cardinals, who rank 29th in defensive DVOA.

Teddy Bridgewater will make the start in relief of Tua Tagovailoa, and he played well after taking over last week. He racked up 193 yards and one touchdown, and now he gets one of the best possible matchups in fantasy. The Jets defense ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA, and they also rank first in pace. He’s worth some consideration as a punt play, particularly on FanDuel.

What does Jared Goff have to do to get some respect? He’s been lighting it up all season, and he’s coming off 37.22 DraftKings points without Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and D.J. Chark last week. He’s the No. 6 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game entering Week 5, but he’s priced at just $6,100 vs. the Patriots.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

It’s another week where the top guys at the position should garner minimal attention on DraftKings. Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Austin Ekeler are the four priciest players, and each is projected for 11% ownership or less. That means it could be a good week to pay up for one to be contrarian.

For cash games, Dalvin Cook figures to be the preferred target in this price range. He’s had a slow start to his season, but he remains a true workhorse running back. He’s had at least 17 carries in three of four games, and he’s racked up at least 20 in two of them.

However, his work in the passing game last week was a little bit troubling. He was targeted on just 10% of his routes run, and the team used Alexander Mattison on long down and distance situations. If Cook isn’t as involved in the passing game moving forward, it will be a bit hit to his fantasy stock.

Still, Cook should be able to do plenty of damage on the ground vs. the Bears. The Vikings are currently listed as 7.5-point favorites, and Cook has historically thrived in similar situations. He’s averaged 23.36 DraftKings points in eight games when favored by at least a touchdown, good for an average Plus/Minus of +3.15. The Bears also rank just 24th in rush defense DVOA, so it’s a fantastic spot.

Value

Jeff Wilson Jr. has been the man in the 49ers’ backfield over the past two weeks. He took over as the starter in Week 2, but it wasn’t until Tyrion Davis-Price went down that Wilson started to dominate the RB touches. He’ll still lose some touches to Deebo Samuel, but Wilson saw 18 of the 49ers’ 22 carries last week. That’s good for an 81.8% market share, which is an outstanding number.

Wilson managed 13.4 DraftKings points against a tough Rams defense in Week 4, and his matchup against the Panthers is much friendlier. Carolina has held their own defensively this season, but their offense has left them on the field a lot. They’ve held possession for just 24.3 minutes per game this season, which is easily the worst mark in the league.

The 49ers are listed as 6.5-point road favorites, so this game could get ugly. If that happens, expect Wilson to be the guy killing the clock in the fourth quarter.

Quick Hits

While Michael Carter technically remains the Jets’ starting running back, Breece Hall is the guy you want in fantasy. He saw a season-high 65% of the team’s rushing attempts last week, and he remains an absolute monster in the passing game. He’s racked up 28 targets through the first four weeks, and he’s had at least six targets in all but one game. Ultimately, Hall ranks third among running backs in expected DraftKings points per game (per Pro Football Focus), so he’s an outstanding value at just $5,400.

Rhamondre Stevenson is another player who has carved out a nice role recently. He’s split the carries basically right down the middle with Damien Harris, but Stevenson has been the preferred pass-catcher and goal-line back. That gives him a very fantasy-friendly skill set. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Lions, who rank second in neutral pace and dead last in defensive DVOA.

David Montgomery will miss his second straight game, so Khalil Herbert will get another shot as the team’s starting running back. He had 20 opportunities last week vs. the Giants – 19 carries and one target – and he’s been extremely efficient this season. He’s averaged 6.1 yards per carry, so he can do some damage with that many opportunities.

James Robinson feels like he’s being overlooked this week. The Jaguars are listed as seven-point favorites – something I never thought I’d say this season – yet their starting running back is projected for less than 6% ownership. The Texans also rank 29th in rush defense DVOA, so Robinson could be in line for a large workload in an ideal matchup.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

Cooper Kupp won the receiving triple crown last year, and he’s well on his way to another massive season. He’s racked up 42 receptions through the first four weeks to go along with 402 yards and three touchdowns. He did have one down performance in Week 3, but he’s scored at least 29.2 DraftKings points in his other three contests.

Kupp was extremely busy last week, racking up 19 targets vs. the 49ers. The 49ers put Matthew Stafford under heavy pressure, and Stafford tends to look for Kupp when he needs to get rid of it quickly.

That bodes well for his outlook in Week 5. The Cowboys are another outstanding pass-rush team, so Kupp could be busy once again. They also boast a weak secondary, and PFF gives him the second-largest advantage of the week at the receiver position.

There are plenty of strong values to take advantage of at the other positions, so locking in Kupp makes a ton of sense. He’s the safest investment in fantasy.

Value

Chris Godwin suited up last week for the first time since Week 1, and he wasted little time making an impact. He racked up 10 targets, which tied with Mike Evans for the top mark on the squad.

While Evans has a higher ceiling due to his touchdown-scoring ability, Godwin has been the preferred option between the 20s. He had a higher target market share than Evans last year, so he’s an excellent PPR option.

Godwin is ultimately too cheap at $5,900 on DraftKings, especially for a matchup vs. the Falcons. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1, which is the third-highest mark at the position.

Quick Hits

Chris Olave is another appealing option in this price range. He’s been the focal point of the Saints’ passing attack recently, racking up 33 total targets over the past three weeks. He also scored the first touchdown of his career last week, despite the fact that he was playing with Andy Dalton. Michael Thomas remains out for the Saints, so Olave should be busy once again.

Tyler Lockett actually leads all wide receivers in DraftKings projected Plus/Minus per THE BLITZ. The Seahawks’ passing attack has been much better than expected this season – Geno Smith ranks first in QB grade per PFF – and Lockett has been their most consistent producer. He’s had 30 total targets over the past three weeks, and he’s racked up at least 14.1 DraftKings points in each game. He’s also done that despite failing to find the end zone, so he has the potential for a big game if he can add a touchdown to his repertoire.

No player in football has received a higher share of his team’s targets than Drake London over the past three weeks. He has the chance to be even busier than usual in Week 5. Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson have both been ruled out, leaving the team without two of their top playmakers. The Falcons could also be forced to throw more than usual as large underdogs.

Deebo Samuel was awesome last week vs. the Rams, and he stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 95%, which is tied for the top mark at wide receiver. His best two games this season have come in Jimmy Garoppolo’s two starts, so he should continue to produce.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

Tight end is weaker than usual at the top this week. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Pitts are all unavailable on the main slate, leaving George Kittle as the only player priced above $5,000 on DraftKings.

T.J. Hockenson just barely misses the cut at $4,900, and he was sensational for the shorthanded Lions last week. He racked up 12 targets, which he turned into eight catches for 179 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers were slightly inflated by an 81-yard reception, but he still would’ve had an outstanding performance without it.

Hockenson could emerge as the chalk once again depending on the Lions’ injury report. Swift and Chark remain out, while St. Brown and Josh Reynolds are questionable. If St. Brown is unable to suit up, it’s going to be tough to avoid Hockenson on DraftKings given his 97% Bargain Rating.

Value

A cheap tight end gives you so much flexibility with the rest of your lineup and O.J. Howard fits that description in Week 5. He’s priced at just $2,600 on DraftKings, and he emerged as a legit part of their passing attack last week. He posted a season-best 65% route participation, and he racked up a 15% target share.

Howard stands out as one of the better per-dollar plays at the position, making him a viable punt play.

Quick Hits

Tyler Higbee has been one of the biggest surprises at the position this year. He was extremely busy in terms of snaps and routes last year, but he didn’t do much work as a pass-catcher. That hasn’t been the case this year, with Higbee ranking second at the position in target market share. He also ranks second at the position in terms of expected DraftKings points, so he’s an outstanding value at $4,300.

David Njoku has come alive over the past two weeks, racking up 17 total targets. He’s turned that into 14 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both contests. He remains very affordable at $3,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Logan Thomas is currently questionable, but he could be busy if he’s able to suit up. Jahan Dotson has been ruled out, so there are a few extra targets available. Thomas has already seen at least five targets in three of four games, and he’s also seen an end zone target in three contests. He’s another cheap player worth some consideration.

Roster Construction

This feels like an excellent week for a balanced cash lineup on DraftKings. I’m still going to be anchoring my receiver corps with Kupp on DraftKings, but no one else is my current lineup is priced above $6,000.

At running back, I love the trio of Wilson, Hall, and Stevenson. All three players have RB1 upside at RB2 prices, albeit in different ways. All three players are significantly underpriced, so there’s really no need to pay up for a stud at the position.

Using Brady at quarterback should leave more than enough room for two receivers in the $5-$6K range, with Olave and Lockett being my two favorites.

Additionally, you could actually forgo Kupp for a truly balanced build. That’s the current optimal lineup by projected points using THE BLITZ. Downgrading Kupp to Brandin Cooks allows you to go with guys like Alvin Kamara and Leonard Fournette at running back, who are also underpriced. I preferred the $5,500 running backs to the $6,500 ones, but both lineup builds are valid.

I’m much more likely to pay up for Allen at quarterback on FanDuel. Salary is so much more plentiful, so going with a stud quarterback isn’t nearly as difficult. You can also easily fit Kupp alongside Allen, who top their positions from a ceiling perspective.

Curtis Samuel is someone who enters the conversation at receiver on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s been extremely busy to start the year.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!