With bye weeks starting and a game in London, we’re down to just 10 games on the NFL Week 5 main slate, starting at 1 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
We have another week with a fairly clear two-player tier at the top of the quarterback projections. Both Patrick Mahomes ($8,200) and Jalen Hurts ($8,000) have a big lead on the rest of the field, with a tight margin between them but more than three points separating them from any other passer.
Mahomes is the consensus projection leader in ours and most other projection sets, but with the extra $200 in salary, it works out even closer from a Pts/Sal standpoint. His Chiefs are second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while favored in the game with the highest total on the slate. Most of those points should come from Mahomes’ arm, making him a standout play.
Part of the issue with playing Mahomes in GPPs this year, though, is his lack of obvious stack partners at wide receiver. Sure, there’s Travis Kelce ($7,600) at tight end, but that makes the salary a major issue and still doesn’t allow for clear double stacks. Even Kelce hasn’t dominated looks this year — he leads the Chiefs with an 18.31% target share but ranks just seventh among NFL tight ends.
Hurts doesn’t have that issue, with his top two wide receivers combining for nearly 60% of his targets on the season. That makes for some easy stacking combinations with Hurts, who can also be played naked, thanks to his massive rushing upside.
Hurts already has three rushing touchdowns on the season to go with his five through the air. The bigger concern for Hurts is potential game flow issues, with his Eagles favored by 4.5 points against the Rams. That’s exacerbated by Philly’s negative PROE, though some of that is due to Hurts’s scrambling.
All things considered, I prefer Hurts for GPPs with the easier stacking combinations available. I’d go with Mahomes if paying up at the position in cash, though. It doesn’t get much better than a game in Minnesota with a 50+ point total, and Mahomes can have a solid score without bringing any of his receivers along with him.
Value
How much do you trust Joshua Dobbs ($5,200)? The Cardinals’ last-minute signing has played well beyond expectations this year, keeping the Cardinals close and topping 20 DraftKings points twice through four games. He has a surprisingly strong group of receivers to throw too, while adding an average of 9.5 points through his legs per game this season.
He and the Cardinals are slight home underdogs against the struggling Bengals, a somewhat run-funnel of a defense. That could limit Dobbs’ upside unless the Bengals are able to score themselves, a surprisingly relevant question given how poorly they’ve played this year.
Still, he wouldn’t need a massive ceiling at his price tag, even for larger field tournaments. Especially with a clear-alpha wideout in Marquise Brown ($5,000). Brown’s 26.45% target share ranks just behind Chris Olave ($6,900) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) for some context on how locked in Dobbs has been on “Hollywood.”
That gives the Dobbs-Brown stack some GPP appeal, though my bigger interest in Dobbs is for cash games. His salary opens up a lot of options elsewhere in the lineup, with a solid floor thanks to his rushing production.
Quick Hits
If Dobbs is a bit too thin at the lower end, how about Matthew Stafford ($5,600)? His complete lack of mobility caps his upside, but he should have Cooper Kupp ($8,600) back for the first time this season. The game environment against Philadelphia will keep the Rams throwing, and they rank sixth in PROE on the year. I prefer the rushing ability and savings on Dobbs for cash games, but Stafford is an excellent pivot for GPPs at low projected ownership.
The Dolphins have the highest implied total of the week, which means Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100) is firmly in play. Miami ranks first in the NFL in rushing AND passing DVOA, so it could come down to how they choose to attack a soft Giants defense — or if New York can offer anything in return. The game flow could make it hard to have a week-winning score, but he’d be a strong play if he keeps up with Mahomes and Hurts for $1,000 less.
Mahomes is so good he even makes opposing quarterbacks strong fantasy options. Quarterbacks hosting the Chiefs in the Mahomes era are averaging 21 DraftKings points per game per our Trends tool. That makes Kirk Cousins ($6,900) an appealing GPP option, with an obvious stacking partner in Justin Jefferson ($9,400).
It’s an interesting spot for Anthony Richardson ($7,000), who’s averaging over 26 DraftKings points in his two healthy games this season. On the one hand, he’s taking on a Titans defense notorious for being a pass funnel. On the other, much of his production comes on the ground, including designed runs. Add the return of Jonathan Taylor ($6,800), and there’s some uncertainty around Richardson, but his ceiling is as high as any QB on the slate.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
It’s a thin week at the top of the running back position, with nobody projected past 18.02 points in our models. That standout at the top of the list is Bijan Robinson ($7,700), the explosive rookie who may be the game’s best pure runner following the injury to Nick Chubb.
The knock on Robinson as an elite DFS play is his workload. He’s yet to see elite volume for the Falcons despite their league-leading rush rate over expectation (RROE), instead serving as the 1A in a two-man backfield committee. He has 53 carries through four games and a solid 22 carries.
However, there’s no Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler on the main slate, so his overall workload could be as high as any back available. The Falcons are even favored here, at home against the Texans, so the game script could work in Robinson’s favor.
He has the explosive ability to get it done on a limited workload anyway, topping 100 yards on just 14 carries last week. While he’s yet to have a true ceiling game, it’s coming. A matchup with the Texans, who rank 28th in DVOA against the run, is perhaps the most likely spot, making him a strong play in tournaments and cash games alike.
Value
Isaiah Pacheco ($5,700) has seen his carries increase each week this season, topping out at 20 in last week’s surprisingly close win over the New York Jets. He’s starting to run away with the Kansas City backfield, only facing carry competition from Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,500) in blowouts.
That sets up nicely this week, as the Chiefs should have a positive game script as 4-5-point favorites but not run away with the game against an explosive Vikings offense. He’ll need plenty of work on the ground to post a meaningful fantasy score thanks to just seeing three targets per game, but he’s been plenty productive when he gets the needed carries.
There are a lot of backs in the $6K range that I prefer to Pacheco (more on that in the next section), but in builds where you’re spending up at wide receiver, he’s a solid option with multiple-touchdown upside in a nice game environment.
Quick Hits
Dolphins rookie De’Von Achane ($6,100) has scored 84 DraftKings points across the past two games, despite seeing just eight looks last week during the Dolphins’ blowout loss to the Bills. This time, his Dolphins are the slate’s largest favorites, so there should be plenty of work to go around. While he doesn’t have the typical build of a workhorse running back, he’s far too explosive to be kept off the field:
While he doesn’t have the juice that Achane has, David Montgomery ($6,600) has an absurd role in the Lions offense. Detroit trails only the Falcons in RROE on the season and are favored by ten at home against the Panthers. When the Lions go up big, they feed Montgomery, leading to a ridiculous 32/121/3 line last week. He doesn’t add much in the passing game but has the goal line role for a team that produced last year’s rushing touchdowns leader and rarely draws up runs for their quarterback. He also has one of the top offensive line matchups on the slate.
I’m mentioning Joe Mixon ($6,700) here thanks to his Pts/Sal projection, which leads the slate for running backs. It’s a strong matchup in theory, with the Bengals as slight favorites and implied for 23.8 points against the 27th-ranked run defense. However, Cincinnati’s offense has been a huge letdown so far this season, so I’ll be staying away from Mixon myself until they show us signs of improvement.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Just like with quarterback, it’s a two-horse race at the top of the receiver projections. This time it’s between Justin Jefferson ($9,400) and Tyreek Hill ($9,000), who are well ahead of the field in both projections and salary.
I talked about my interest in the Vikings offense above. They should be chasing points against the explosive Chiefs all game, making it an extremely attractive game environment. Minnesota ranks third in PROE in the NFL already and are likely to further grow that number in this matchup.
Hill is a bit more of a question mark. With the Dolphins expected to blow the Giants away, he could get game-scripted out of the plan. Or, they could establish their big lead through a couple of bombs to Hill, and he could pay off his salary by the end of the first quarter.
Hill is the far more volatile option here, with two games north of 33 DraftKings points and two games under 15. Of those two duds, one was a somewhat close win over the Patriots (who schemed heavily to stop Hill), and the other was the Dolphins’ bad loss to the Bills (who have the second-best pass defense by DVOA). The likelier option is a somewhat big game for Hill, but perhaps not the explosion he needs at $9,000.
Jefferson has scored between 26.5 and 30.90 DraftKings points in each of his team’s first three games, putting him right around 3x of his current salary. This game should tilt him to the higher end of his range of outcomes, but he’s unlikely to post a true GPP-winning score.
Therefore, I’m making Jefferson a priority in cash games. He’s a near-lock for 25 DraftKings points, something no other player (regardless of position) can say. On the other hand, Hill is my preferred tournament option. If playing him, I’ll be sure to include a Giants player in the roster, though.
He’ll need some scoring from New York to hit a true ceiling game
Value
There’s a handful of players around $4,000 I’m interested in, but my favorite price-considered option is Josh Downs ($3,700) of the Colts. He’s too cheap for a player with his roughly 20% target share, and the rookie should continue to see his role in the offense expand.
It’s a good week for the Colts’ passing attack against the Titans, who’ve faced a top-10 pass play rate despite a 2-2 record. (We’d expect higher pass play rates to come against winning teams since they force their opponents into negative game scripts. Seven of the top ten teams in pass play rate against have winning records.) The Titans rank 2nd in DVOA against the run but 25th against the pass this season.
His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 6.33, making him more of a floor play than a ceiling option. Still, that’s a valuable role given the stud wide receivers above, and could conceivably allow lineups to fit both Jefferson and Hill.
Quick Hits
Atlanta is another pass funnel defensively, creating interest in all three of the Texans’ primary receivers. All of Nico Collins ($5,600), Robert Woods ($4,000), and Tank Dell ($4,800) have target shares between 16.9% and 22.54% on the season. That’s a frustrating split for fantasy reasons, but any of them can have a solid price-considered game. I’ll be pairing one or two of them on lineups built around Bijan Robinson, mixing and matching for multi-entry play.
We talked about Marquise Brown in the quarterback section emerging as a true No. 1 wide receiver for Josh Dobbs and the Arizona passing attack. His $5,000 price tag is far too cheap for a player averaging eight targets per game, and the game script should allow for plenty of passing opportunities in Arizona.
Adam Thielen ($5,100) feels too expensive for a 33-year-old receiver in a broken passing game. But he’s far too cheap for a player averaging north of 10 targets and 20 DraftKings points per game over his last three. His short-area routes will be in high demand against a tough Lions pass rush, and Detroit has faced the third-highest opponent pass rate in the NFL this season.
Finally, if the Bengals are able to get anything going offensively, it’s likely through Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900). There was serious discussion in the preseason about Chase as the potential top fantasy player over Justin Jefferson, but the injury to Joe Burrow ($6,200) has severely limited the Bengals’ passing effectiveness. With Tee Higgins unlikely to play, Chase should see a massive target share, though, and obviously has the talent to get open:
“I’m open. I’m always f****** open.”
– Ja’Marr Chase / Waffle House
pic.twitter.com/iMdDhvtVQr— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 2, 2023
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
This isn’t so much the “stud” section as the Travis Kelce ($7,600) portion of the write-up. After missing Week 1 due to injury, Kelce has seen 26 targets in the past three games while averaging just under 15 DraftKings points. Those are down numbers by Kelce standards, but still puts him third in the league in PPR points.
He’s due for a breakout game at any point, and the game script in Minnesota sets up nicely this week. The game has the best Vegas total on the slate at 53, and Minnesota should be able to score just enough to keep the Chiefs aggressive. As noted in the Patrick Mahomes write-up, Kansas City leads the league in PROE.
Kelce leads the position in median projection by nearly six points and could easily separate even more than that by the end of Sunday’s games. He’ll be a major part of my builds focused on this game, and he’s worth mixing and matching in other rosters if you can find the salary.
Value
Zach Ertz ($3,500) improbably leads all tight ends in target share in his age 57 32 season, turning 30 looks into 20 catches for 136 scoreless yards. He’s proven to be a valuable security blanket for the inexperienced Josh Dobbs at quarterback, producing at least six catches in three of four games.
Ertz is extremely unlikely to win you a tournament — even if he trips and falls into the end zone; his ceiling is still limited. However, as long as the game script allows it, he’s a safe bet for another five or six catches and 40 or so yards. Given how poor tight end scoring has been this season, that’s more than acceptable at his price range.
While I certainly prefer to find more upside, it’s hard to come by without spending considerably more at tight end. Ertz is a near lock for cash games (unless you find the salary for Kelce) and a solid punt for smaller field GPPs.
Quick Hits
The one player capable of challenging Kelce in terms of ceiling is in the same game as him. That’s TJ Hockenson ($6,500), who is tied for the positional lead in catches at 25. He’s the No. 2 option for the Vikings, who will likely need to throw a lot to keep pace with the Chiefs. If possible, I’d rather find the extra $1,100 for Kelce, but Hockenson is a reasonable pivot for GPPs.
Hockenson ranks third among tight ends in target share, trailing only Ertz and his replacement in Detroit (who also replaced him at Iowa) Sam LaPorta ($5,000). LaPorta has a remarkably similar stat line to Hockenson on the season, with 23 catches but nearly 40 more yards. He’s the more explosive player but has a lesser game environment with the Lions as massive favorites.
Mark Andrews ($5,500) is always worth considering as a pivot from the top options. He’s been relatively quiet this year with just 160 yards in three games, but he’s a major factor in the red zone. His three touchdowns are tied for the NFL lead, and another two-touchdown performance like he had last week could make him a GPP-winner. It’s not the best environment against the Steelers, but he’s a fringe option.
Kyle Pitts ($3,300) has officially hit punt status at tight end. He’s been bad, averaging under six DraftKings points per game. However, the underlying usage is still there. He’s eighth among tight ends in target share, with an aDOT more than four yards deeper than anyone else in the top ten. Of course, he’d have to start actually catching those deep throws for that to be worth anything.
GPP Roster Construction
It’s another fun week in tournaments, with two types of builds standing out. The first are those built around cheap quarterbacks/passing attacks, with the Cardinals and Josh Dobbs one potential route. Pairing Dobbs with some combination of Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, and Michael Wilson ($3,700) leaves plenty of money for stars at other positions, especially if using Tyler Boyd ($4,500) as a Bengals bringback.
Along those same lines, rosters built around Stafford and a pair of his targets — Puka Nacua ($7,700), Tutu Atwell ($5,300), Tyler Higbee ($4,100) — or even the returning Cooper Kupp ($8,600) for deeper fields — is somewhat budget-friendly as well.
Those builds can prioritize backs like Robinson and one of Chase or Jefferson at receiver without having to dig too deep at other positions (Kupp rosters notwithstanding.) Kelce and Hockenson also become a bit more feasible here. I also like trying to find the salary for Miami ($3,600), as they could break the slate against Daniel Jones ($5,800) and the Giants’ offensive line.
The other option is to target the top game environments on the slate, with KC/MIN and the Dolphins against New York standing out. The latter should be mostly one-way traffic, but rostering all three of Tua, Hill, and Achane in smaller field tournaments covers a lot of bases game-flow wise. If the Giants keep it competitive, Hill and Tua are a smash, and if it’s a blowout, Achane likely gets it done. Plus, if the Dolphins build a big lead on a pair of Hill touchdowns before shifting to Achane, it’s a great spot overall.
I’d focus on that type of build for smaller tournaments, as it’s hard to see all three players with massive scores, but as a group, they should end up with an extremely strong overall number.
For deeper fields, building around the Chiefs or Vikings is more appealing. Rosters of Mahomes/Cousins paired with Jefferson and Kelce are the obvious options, but mixing in one of Hockenson, Rashee Rice ($3,600), or a running back could differentiate your lineup in bigger tournaments.
At running back, I’m going to prioritize Bijan Robinson and David Montgomery when salary allows while mixing in other options for multi-entry play. They’re my most confident options in terms of floor and ceiling combination.
At tight end, I want to be overweight on Pitts, but I’m happy to hold my nose and plug in Zach Ertz in plenty of lineups as well.
I’m taking a similar approach at defense, where spending up to Miami or New Orleans ($3,000) is nice, but not worth changing my roster around when I could just take the relative (price considered) safety of Tennessee ($2,400).
As always, I want to diversify my defenses in multi-entry play.
Cash Games
I’m leaning heavily towards “cheap quarterback” builds for cash games, as it allows me to comfortably fit Robinson, Montgomery, and a premium pass catcher. There’s plenty of value at wide receiver this week, so a four wide receiver build with two stars and two cheaper options is appealing, or two cheap receivers in a three running back build.
As mentioned in the receiver section, Justin Jefferson is a cash game priority for me. I can’t trust Ja’Marr Chase until the Bengals show us something, and Hill could ruin your lineup with a 15-point game at his salary. I’ll also be trying to fit Marquise Brown in going with non-Dobbs rosters, but I want to avoid playing three Cardinals (Dobbs/Brown/Ertz), so it’s an either/or situation for me.
I have a hard time justifying the salary for Kelce in cash games, as he limits the rest of the lineups fairly heavily. This feels like a fairly obvious week for Ertz, though if I needed the extra $200-$300 Pitts or Chig Okonkwo ($3,200) makes sense too. If they totally dud, you’re likely only losing 7-9 points to Ertz lineups, but they could just as easily bury those lineups with a big game.
A similar logic applies to defense, though the higher ceiling plays are the more expensive ones. If possible, I’d love to get to Miami, but the extra $1,000 over the Titans is probably too steep of a price to pay.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL Content.
Good luck this week!
