Week 5 of the NFL season marks the one-third mark of the regular season. Whether your fantasy playoffs begin in Week 14 or 15, four weeks of production gives us a substantial set of data upon which to base our weekly projections. Last week we hit on Jalen Hurts (QB6), David Montgomery (RB5), and Dawson Knox (TE3) while correctly fading DeAndre Hopkins (WR42) and George Kittle (TE21).
Each week, I will bring you an early look at which players to target and fade for the upcoming Sunday DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ll do this by using our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and when lineups lock. Our Player Models update in real-time to help make quick lineup decisions before rosters lock.
This is a wonderful time of year, so let’s take a deep dive into which players to target and avoid in the fifth week of the 2021 NFL season.
Quarterback Targets
Trevor Lawrence ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD)
While everyone focuses on San Francisco rookie Trey Lance, I’ll take the more experienced rookie quarterback who is actually $400 cheaper on FanDuel.
Lawrence had his best performance since Week 1, with a 70.8% completion percentage, 36 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, and no turnovers. He failed to throw for a passing touchdown but did average a season-high 8.5 yards per attempt. He now faces a Tennessee defense that just allowed struggling Jets rookie Zach Wilson to throw for 297 yards and two touchdowns.
Hurts will face a Tennessee defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers, including eight touchdown passes. Besides Wilson’s performance, the Titans allowed 343 passing yards and a 71% completion percentage to Russell Wilson in Week 2.
Lawrence isn’t close talent-wise to Russell Wilson, but at his Week 5 price, he just needs to be decent. He is the 14th-priced quarterback on DraftKings and the microscopic 22nd-priced quarterback on FanDuel. Any quarterback that is only the 22nd most expensive in a game with a 49-point total is DFS viable, especially one that has a sneaky rushing upside, such as Lawrence.
Jacksonville is the second-fastest paced team per Football Outsiders and operates at the second-fastest pace in the second half of games when the Jaguars are usually trailing.
The game environment gives us everything we want in a DFS quarterback play: high total, fast pace, rushing upside, and a great price.
Joe Burrow ($6,100 DK, $7,000 FD)
I love targeting a home underdog quarterback in a potential shootout, which is exactly the situation with Cincinnati hosting Green Bay.
The Packers bring a pass defense that ranks just 20th in DVOA per Football Outsiders that will likely be without All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander. Per PlayerProfiler, Burrow has posted the fifth-best clean-pocket completion percentage (82.9%) and is coming off a season-best 348 passing yards, QB11 fantasy performance.
Burrow should have another clean pocket throughout the game against a Green Bay pass rush that ranks tied for third-worst with just 1.8 sacks per game. Without Alexander, the Bengals will have their most favorable offensive opportunity of the season.
Cincinnati wide receiver Tee Higgins is expected to return to practice this week, complete the lethal receiving trio with Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd. Chase has brought a dominant level of explosiveness as a rookie with incredible big-play ability. The former LSU wideout has the following positional ranks:
- 5th in Air Yards Share (46.5%)
- 8th in Deep Targets (Seven)
- 8th in Yards Per Reception (17.5)
- 2nd in Total Touchdowns (Four)
Boyd is coming off his best performance of the season with nine receptions and 118 receiving yards as the overall PPR WR9. Cincinnati’s tight end C.J. Uzomah is also coming off a fantastic game, registering the overall TE1 stat line in Week 5. Green Bay ranks a generous eighth in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends.
Burrow has a high Ceiling Projection in our FantasyLabs Models, despite carrying a very affordable price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
With starting running back Joe Mixon likely slowed by a low-ankle sprain in Week 4, the Bengals should skew more pass-heavy than any game this season. Burrow will have pressure to produce points against the prolific Aaron Rodgers, which is the precise situation we want for a quarterback that has a top-three quarterback performance definitively in his Week 5 range of outcomes.
Running Back Target
D’Andre Swift ($6,100 DK, $6,900 FD)
I love targeting Swift after coming off a very disappointing RB39 PPR performance at Chicago. Swift is an elite pass-catching back for a winless Detroit team that constantly resides in negative game scripts.
Per PlayerProfiler, Swift ranks second among all running backs in targets (29), receptions (23), and receiving yards (199). He has created 100 total yards twice and has two separate games with seven or more receptions.
Swift is certainly getting the usage, illustrated by his 34.6% Dominator Rating on PlayerProfiler, third-highest among all running backs. He ranks fifth in snap share (66.4%), fantasy points per game (17.2), and critical red zone touches (13). He now faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed 20 receptions and 20 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
In a game where the Lions are (again) substantial underdogs, combined with a 50-point over/under, Swift should project for a lot of work, coming at a slight discount off a subpar Week 4 performance.
Running Back Fade
Austin Ekeler ($7,600 DK, $7,700 FD)
I am fading Austin Ekeler’s big performance coming off a short week. While Ekeler has produced three-straight PPR RB8 or better performances, he has done so with just a 65.2% snap share this season. Last week’s 57.9% snap share was a season-low and came alongside rookie Larry Rountree’s 11 carries.
At 5-foot-9, 199 lbs, there are legitimate concerns about giving Ekeler a full running back workload. He has posted over 116 carries only once in his career and already has 50 rushes in 2021. Cleveland has been incredibly stingy on opposing running backs, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game. This includes just 12 receptions and 105 receiving yards in the four games this season.
The Browns have been stout against the run, ranking first among all teams in run defense DVOA and third overall in total DVOA (Football Outsiders).
The Browns just held Minnesota running backs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to a combined 2.8 yards per carry in Cleveland’s 14-7 true road victory.
As the fifth-highest running back on DraftKings and the seventh-highest rusher on FanDuel, Ekeler still needs substantial production to justify that value. Cleveland’s 9.3 fantasy points per game allowed to running backs would fall drastically short of this total.
Ekeler is a talented runner in a very challenging situation in Week 5. I am going elsewhere for DFS running back value.
Wide Receiver Target
Jakobi Meyers ($5,600 DK, $5,900 FD)
Meyers has flown under the radar despite being one of the most targeted wide receivers in the NFL.
Meyers is on the field more than almost any NFL wide receiver, ranking third overall with a 94.8% snap share. His volume is of an elite-level wideout. Meyers has tallied:
- 41 targets (eighth among all WRs)
- 27 receptions (eighth)
- 161 routes run (third)
- 7 deep targets (eighth)
At 6-foot-2, 203 lbs, Meyers uses his length to form a solid catch radius for rookie quarterback Mac Jones in the middle of the field. Meyers has accumulated 135 slot snaps, ranking him fifth at the position. Using the Bales Model, Woods is projected as the 12th-best play on FanDuel and the 22nd-best play on DraftKings. Meyers rates highly in our Projected Plus/Minus score, which calculates the difference between projected points and salary-based expected points.
With the Patriots in desperate need of a win after two consecutive losses, this Patriots-Texans game is an overlooked DFS target. With a total of only 39.5 points, ownership on Meyers should be very low. But his volume and price create such a solid Week 5 value with an explosion game on the horizon. It’s simply a matter of time before Meyers has that big game, and we are betting that it comes in Week 5 against the struggling Texans.
Wide Receiver Fade
Kenny Golladay ($5,900 DK, $6,200 FD)
Golladay has struggled to find chemistry with quarterback Daniel Jones after missing most of the preseason with a hamstring injury. He has produced just one WR2 stat line this season and now travels to Dallas to face a top 10 pass defense.
Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs is quickly becoming one of the top cornerbacks in the league and will likely draw the assignment of limiting Golladay. Diggs leads the league with five interceptions and ranks seventh-best in coverage rating, per PFF.
The Giants will likely still be without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton due to injury, leaving Golladay as the focus of Dan Quinn’s defense. With Golladay struggling to create separation, most of his production will be contingent upon contested catches, an area where Diggs is even more challenging. Golladay ranks just 46th in target separation and 31st in contested catch rate per PlayerProfiler.
At Golladay’s DraftKings price tag, there are many other receives with better Week 5 upside at a similar price. Odell Beckham ($6,000) is just $100 more, and Devonta Smith ($5,900), JaMarr Chase ($5,800), and Meyers ($5600) are all more attractive values at an equal or cheaper cost.
With a tough matchup and lingering injury concerns, I’m fading Golladay this week in Dallas.
Tight End Target
Anthony Firkser ($3,100 DK, $4,700 FD)
This is a shallow DFS tight end position without Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. I’m backing one of my favorite preseason late-round tight ends in Tennessee’s Anthony Firkser.
Firkser missed the last two weeks with a knee injury but returned in Week 4 against a tough positional matchup with the Jets. New York has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. In Week 5, Firkser faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.
Similar to my argument for Trevor Lawrence, the opportunities should be there for Firkser in a game with a 49-point game total. He brings superior agility and did record the overall TE1 performances last year in Week 6 while also sharing target with former Tennessee tight end Jonnu Smith.
Firkser is only the 19th most-expensive tight end play on DraftKings yet carries a much higher ceiling on our FantasyLabs projections than similarly priced players such as Blake Jarwin and David Njoku.
If you are looking for savings, Firkser is a cheap play with touchdown upside in an offense still dealing with nagging injuries to wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.
Photo Credit: Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Pictured: Trevor Lawrence
