The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Saints at Chargers
This game currently has a 53.5-point implied Vegas total. The Chargers are currently 4.5-point home favorites, implied to score 28.75 points. The Saints are implied to score 24.75 points as road underdogs.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
The Drew Brees road/home narratives will be out in full effect this week, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t in play in this week’s highest projected scoring game. The Chargers rank bottom-three in completions, attempts, and passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks; teams target San Diego’s passing defense as a way to beat them. Brees does have a low floor in road games — he’s posted just 17.2 FanDuel points in his last seven road games — but he makes for a great GPP play, as he boasts the third-highest projected ceiling per our Player Models.
RB – Mark Ingram
After seeing 13.5 touches in his first two games, the Saints fed Ingram last week, getting him 20 touches and closer to his 2015 pace. San Diego is currently giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs on DraftKings so far this year. Ingram’s price has dropped $700 since the beginning of the season. Against the Chargers, Spencer Ware and Frank Gore were able to put up 35.9 and 15.3 points, respectively. At just $5,900, Ingram is in play in all contest formats.
RB – Travaris Cadet
Cadet continues to carve out a receiving role in this offense; he caught six passes last week against Atlanta. The Chargers have given up the second-most receptions to opposing running backs (27), however, Cadet’s projected DK floor (6.0) and ceiling (8.0) are just too low to roster this week.
WR – Brandin Cooks
Cooks was blanketed by Desmond Trufant last week, finishing with just two catches for 13 yards. Per our Matchups tool, things may not get easier in Week 4 with Jason Verrett expected to line up against Cooks for most of the day. Verrett was able to lock down Allen Robinson in Week 2, although he did struggle against T.Y. Hilton last week. Cooks is a similar type of player to Hilton and could have a similar breakout performance if he can get behind the defense. He’s seen eight-plus targets per game this year, but given the matchup against Verrett, Cooks is more of a GPP option this week.
WR – Willie Snead
Snead is listed as questionable but seems likely to play. This week he has a solid matchup against Brandon Flowers in the slot. Snead has six Pro Trends on FD and an 83 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently seeing 8.5 targets per game and has scored 20.8 points per game in 2016. If Snead is a game-time decision, he could potentially go under-owned in a high-scoring game.
WR – Michael Thomas
Thomas exceeded expectations last week, capitalizing on Snead’s absence and scoring on a quick slant inside the 10-yard line. Now only Cadet has more targets inside the opponent’s 10-yard line than Thomas. Thomas is still seeing only 16.1 percent of the Saints’ targets on the year, but with a 71.4 percent catch rate he may be able to capitalize on those targets in Week 4 in this possible shootout.
TE – Coby Fleener
After seeing eight targets in Week 2, Fleener followed it up with an 11-target game in Week 3 and posted a nice 7-109-1 stat line. He is currently the highest-rated tight end in the CSURAM88 DK Model. San Diego has given up the most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends so far this season and just lost starting inside linebacker Manti Te’o for the year. Brees clearly has eyes for Fleener, and while the efficiency has been lackluster to start the year, the targets have been there. With a depressed price on both DK and FD, Fleener is a solid option in both cash games and GPPs in this high-scoring game.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
Rivers has averaged 33 pass attempts per game through three weeks and is the third most efficient quarterback (109.5 QBR) in the league. This game has massive shootout potential as the highest point total of the week and the Saints rank sixth-worst in pass DVOA. New Orleans has also allowed the most red-zone plays in the league (53) as well as the highest Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs over the last 16 games. Nobody allowed more fantasy points (24.0) per game and touchdowns (45) to quarterbacks than the Saints defense in 2015. Football Outsiders ranked them 32nd against the pass last season.
This game isn’t being played at the Coors Field of NFL DFS, but basically anytime the Saints play you can follow this procedure: 1) Find QB playing against the Saints, 2) insert that QB into cash lineups, 3) build game stacks around that QB in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Melvin Gordon
This one is pretty simple: The Saints have allowed the most rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and fantasy points to RBs this season. Even last season, New Orleans allowed the most red-zone trips to opponents as well as the third-most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns to opposing RBs. With Danny Woodhead on the IR, Gordon is the clear workhorse in San Diego and has everything you want in regards to volume and opportunity. Per our Trends Tool, FD RBs comparable to Gordon in salary and situation have performed well:
MG3’s price is higher than it has been previously, but the Chargers are home favorites, he has little competition for RB touches, and he’s playing the Saints.
One potential issue is that he could be without as many as three starting offensive linemen. Left tackle King Dunlap (migraines) has already been ruled, right tackle Joe Barksdale (foot) missed practice on Friday, and left guard Orlando Franklin is questionable and only had a limited practice on Friday. If all three players are inactive in Week 4, MG3 could struggle to take full advantage of his matchup.
RB – Dexter McCluster
McCluster had just two catches on 15 percent of the snaps last week. There’s probably nothing to see, although he could make for an intriguing contrarian leverage play against MG3 in just a few tournament lineups.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Benjamin has been the prime beneficiary of the loss of Keenan Allen and Woodhead. He’s leading the Chargers in both target share (21.43 percent) and market share of Air Yards (28.24 percent). He has a fantastic matchup this week against Ken Crawley, an undrafted rookie. Benjamin has an attractive floor and will likely be a chalk cash-game option against the Saints as the top-rated FD WR in Adam Levitan’s Player Model.
WR – Tyrell Williams
The Saints allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers (27) in 2015, when they were ranked 29th against No. 2 WRs by FO. Not only does Williams lead the Chargers with six red-zone targets (26.1 percent team market share) but he’s right behind Benjamin in Air Yards, a predictive stat for big plays. DK WRs comparable to Williams in situation have produced a +3.03 Plus/Minus with 51.8 percent Consistency and 4.6 percent ownership in tournaments. Williams has more speed and playmaking ability than Dontrelle Inman and still seems criminally underpriced on DraftKings, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating and fantastic GPP upside given his matchup, red-zone involvement, and target share. Williams is the second-highest rated DK WR in our Tournament Model.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
Inman continues to lead the team in wide receiver snap share, but with all the production going to Benjamin and Williams he is a risky play.
TE – Hunter Henry
Playing all 59 snaps in place of Antonio Gates in Week 3, Henry caught all five of his targets and totaled 76 yards receiving. The matchup against the Saints in Week 4 is very appealing, as they allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends last season and the fourth-most receptions and receiving yards. The Saints’ struggles have continued so far in 2016, as they’re allowing a +1.7 Opponent FD Plus/Minus to TEs.
With Gates doubtful to play this week, Henry is a chalky and cheap option, especially on FD, where he owns an 81 percent Bargain Rating and is the second-highest FD TE in our Cash Model.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
