The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Raiders at Ravens
This game currently has a Vegas total of 46 points. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites at home. They are implied to score 24.75 points. The Raiders are implied to score 21.25 points.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
With his 118 pass attempts (seventh-most in the league) Carr has been very efficient, boasting a 99.1 QBR through the first three weeks (per Football Outsiders). Carr is in a tough spot this week against an underrated Ravens defense that hasn’t allowed a score of even QB16 in six straight games. Overall, he’s a risky tournament play, tied with Trevor Siemian for the fifth-worst Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
RB – Latavius Murray
Last year, Murray received 307 total touches, fourth-most in the NFL. Surprisingly, through three weeks, Murray has just a 42.11 percent rushing market share. However, he does have 60 percent of the Raiders’ red-zone carries. Oakland seems committed to getting other players involved and Murray is losing volume as a result. As a team, the Raiders have been far better on the ground in 2016, averaging 148.3 rushing yards per game after averaging just 91.1 yards per game last year. As a guy who now makes his living off of touchdowns instead of volume, he’s a low-end tournament play this week, but at least he comes with FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four percent (accessible in our Player Models).
RB – DeAndre Washington
In Week 3 the rookie led the Raiders with 57 rushing yards on just six carries on the shoulders of a long 30-yard burst in the second quarter. Still, it’s hard to see any tournament upside as things now stand, as Washington has just a 23.68 percent rushing share on the year. This muddled backfield isn’t likely to clear up anytime soon, especially since the Raiders actually are doing better with the committee than they were with just one RB alone last year. Pass.
WR – Amari Cooper
Cooper has looked fantastic this year, leading the Raiders with 29 targets, 270 yards, and a strong 24.79 percent target market share on a team that has spread the ball around on offense. However, as was the case last year, Cooper’s red-zone involvement is a concern as he has just 16.7 percent of the targets inside the 20-yard line. The good news is that the quality of his targets is high, as he far and away leads the team in market share of air yards:
Per our Matchups Page, this week Cooper will line up primarily against cornerback Jimmy Smith, which is a matchup that Cooper has the potential to win. A breakout is imminent with Cooper, as he has left some big plays on the field in each game this year. He’s a bit expensive for cash games, but Baltimore has allowed a top-10 receiver in each of the past few games.
WR – Michael Crabtree
Crabtree finished last year 11th in total targets (146), 18th in target share (24.3 percent), and 11th in total touchdowns (9) as he led the Raiders in red-zone targets (13). Crabtree has a premium matchup with cornerback Shareece Wright, who finished with a Pro Football Focus grade below 50 two out of the last three seasons. With a FantasyLabs ownership projection of just two to four percent in the FD Sunday Million, Crabtree is a fine play in guaranteed prize pools, even if Seth Roberts’ red-zone involvement has capped his upside so far. Crabtree has topped 80 yards twice in the last three games.
WR – Seth Roberts
It is clear that Carr trusts Roberts in the area of the field that matters most, as he leads the team in targets inside the 20-yard line and has two touchdowns through the first three weeks. At $3,500 on DK, he’s a GPP flyer who is no good to you unless he gets in the end zone, which happens more than most people would expect.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford showed promise near the end of last season, but there are limited targets with Cooper and Crabtree (46.16 percent target share combined) so involved in the offense and Roberts so involved in the red zone. Walford has a tough matchup against a Ravens defense that last year allowed bottom-five averages in fantasy points and Opponent Plus/Minus to TEs. Punt Play? Maybe, but you could do better elsewhere.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco is only averaging 258 passing yards and one touchdown per game this season, and he has thrown four interceptions over the last two weeks. Luckily for Flacco, the Raiders are on a historic pace, allowing 344 passing yards per game to start the season. This pace was even higher before Marcus Mariota‘s terrible Week 3 performance. The Raiders currently rank fifth-worst in pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders.
Flacco is the 11th-most expensive FanDuel quarterback and rates poorly in Adam Levitan’s Player Model due to his elevated cost. However, Flacco is the 15th-most expensive DK quarterback. At only $900 above the minimum, he rates very highly in the Levitan Model and has 7 Pro Trends.
RB – Terrance West
As the ‘lead back,’ West has accounted for 43 percent of the Ravens’ rushing attempts but has only managed 3.6 yards per carry on the season. However, he had his best game of the season last week, compiling 45 yards on 10 carries. Sadly, Justin Forsett has Baltimore’s only carries inside the red zone this season. With Baltimore’s offense struggling to score touchdowns and the defense playing exceptionally well, the running back timeshare makes West hard to use. He has failed to clear seven DK points in three straight weeks and is projected to score only 7.8 DK points this week.
RB – Justin Forsett
Similar to West, Forsett is difficult to roster because of his usage. On top of that, he has only averaged 3.2 YPC on the season. With Harbaugh displeased with his production (per the FantasyLabs News feed), it is possible that his usage will begin to decline even more. Forsett caught six passes in Week 3 and still only scored 9.2 DK points. His passing game usage was encouraging, but averaging two yards per catch is horrendous. He is averaging 3.3 yards per reception on the season.
RB – Javorius Allen
According to head coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens may look to make some changes in their backfield this week, which could mean that Buck Allen may be active for the first time this season. If so, the Ravens RB who caught 37 passes over their final seven games last year would make for a very interesting tournament play.
WR – Mike Wallace
As outlined in this week’s WR/CB Matchup piece, Wallace is likely to run most of his routes against cornerback Sean Smith. According to Scott Barrett of PFF, the leading NFL WR this season is the Frankenstein of guys who catch passes against Smith. Wallace slowed down last week, catching three of six targets for only 34 yards, and he looks to be highly dependent on touchdowns, as he has seen exactly six targets in each game this season. However, Week 3 was the first week in which he did not score a touchdown. Look for Wallace to get a chance to beat Smith deep this week.
WR – Steve Smith
After a VERY slow start in Week 1, Smith has bounced back the last two weeks, catching 11 of 17 targets for 151 yards. Smith has been playing a lot more snaps in the slot over the past two weeks and it has greatly benefited him. He has now run 45 percent of his routes against nickel cornerbacks and 22 percent against the right cornerback. This means that Smiff is likely to run 60-70 percent of his routes against the combination of Smith and DJ Hayden, who is PFF’s 85th-graded cornerback on the season.
Just remember that the move to the slot rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald‘s career. Smith is the fifth-highest rated WR in the Levitan Model, has a +5.5 Projected Plus/Minus, and gets to face a Raiders defense allowing a +2.0 Opponent Plus/Minus to WRs.
WR – Breshad Perriman
Perriman played more snaps than Kamar Aiken in Week 3, but unfortunately that was only 39 percent of the snaps. Baltimore is still looking for an offensive identity, but for now it looks like Wallace, Smith and Dennis Pitta are the only receivers worth strong consideration.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta is back. He played 73 percent of snaps in Week 3 and caught six of eight targets for 42 yards. While the yardage total from Week 2 wasn’t there, Pitta has carved out a significant role in this offense and is tied with Jordan Reed for the third-most TE targets in the NFL. Pitta now faces off against a Raiders defense that is giving up 22 percent more TE production than league average (per FO). Pitta’s price has not caught up with his role yet, and so he’s a great discount: The second-highest rated FD TE in the Levitan Model with an 87 percent Bargain Rating.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
