The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Lions at Bears
The Lions will travel to Chicago as 2.5-point favorites. They’re currently implied to score 24.75 points, compared to just 22.25 for the Bears. The Bears hope to have quarterback Jay Cutler back from his thumb injury, but he’s still considered day-to-day. Let’s take a look at who will be battling it out between the two NFC North rivals.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
Stafford enters the Lions’ Week 4 matchup against the Bears averaging the fourth-most DraftKings points among all quarterbacks this season. He’s thrown downfield just as often this season as he did in 2015 with Megatron; the difference has been Stafford’s newfound status as one of the more efficiently-explosive QBs in the league. He’s averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and 0.52 fantasy points per dropback — both top-four marks among all QBs. Stafford is priced at $7,300 on DK, although he carries a five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. He has a great matchup against a Bears defense that finished as the third-worst in Plus/Minus allowed to QBs in 2015.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick struggled as the Lions’ lead back in Week 3, gaining just nine rushing yards on 10 carries. Coach Jim Caldwell said Monday that he still has faith in Riddick and cited his struggle as a result of the offensive line’s poor execution. He won’t be phased out of the run game after one poor performance, but he did split carries with Dwayne Washington against the Bears and shouldn’t be expected to consistently surpass 10 carries per game. This doesn’t mean Riddick still can’t be a valuable fantasy commodity, as he has found ways to produce over the past three seasons even in games that wouldn’t seem to be well-suited for him:
As our Trends tool shows, Riddick has still posted a +4.59 Plus/Minus with 77.8 percent Consistency in nine games as a small favorite. As the Lions’ fourth-most targeted receiver, he’s going to have a high floor almost every week regardless of how his rushing performance turns out. Riddick is priced at $5,200 and faces a depleted Bears front seven that has allowed a 49.64 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months — the second-worst mark in the league.
RB – Dwayne Washington
Washington was the lone bright spot in the Lions run game in Week 3, rushing for 38 yards on 10 carries. Caldwell has indicated in the past two weeks that Washington has played well and is headed towards a bigger role, and beat reporters expect him to see more action perhaps as early as this week. At 6’0″ and 223 lbs., Washington is much more adept at running in between the tackles than Riddick. He’s priced at $4,500 on FanDuel and his +5.1 Projected Plus/Minus is the highest among all backs priced under $5,500.
WR – Marvin Jones
Jones went bonkers in Week 3, surpassing 200 receiving yards and scoring two touchdowns. His production through three weeks is truly astounding:
As our Trends tool shows, Jones has a ridiculous +14.04 Plus/Minus through the first three weeks of 2016. He’s only 10th among all wide receivers in targets per game, but he’s been ruthlessly efficient, averaging 14.1 yards and 2.44 fantasy points per target. This production has come at a cost, as Jones’ +$2700 price increase on DK since the season opener is the highest among all wide receivers. This week he’s priced at $7,300 on DK, but his 26 to 30 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is the second-highest in Week 4. Jones will face a Bears secondary led by Jacoby Glenn and Bryce Callahan, two of PFF’s top-30 highest-graded cornerbacks of 2016.
Jones did pop up on the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring issue, but as of now he’s expected to be ready to play this weekend. He practiced fully on Friday and is listed as questionable.
WR – Golden Tate
Tate had a season-low six targets in Week 3 and is still yet to gain over 50 receiving yards or find the end zone in 2016. It’s the first time since 2011 that he’s gone three consecutive games without hitting either of those thresholds. Tate’s role as the offense’s short-to-intermediate receiver has resulted in a long catch of just 15 yards. Overall, 77 percent of Tate’s targets have come on throws that have traveled less than 20 yards in the air, compared to 55 percent for Jones. Tate’s salary has decreased by $1,500 on DK since the season opener and he’s priced at $5,800 this week with six DK Pro Trends.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Boldin has now scored touchdowns in consecutive games and is averaging over five targets per game. Still, Boldin’s chances at consistently getting five or more targets a game for the rest of the season seem slim. He’s not behind just Jones and Tate in targets but also Riddick and Eric Ebron. He has the lowest upside of those receivers, but he’s shown enough promise this season to make him an enticing option if he comes into a bigger role in the offense. Boldin is priced at $4,200 on DK with a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron received a season-high eight targets in Week 3 and continued his success when given a featured role in the offense:
As the RotoViz Game Splits app shows, Ebron has averaged 11.33 PPR points in his three career games with at least eight targets. His increased role in the Lions offense has resulted in him averaging the seventh-most DK points among all tight ends through three weeks. He’s priced at $3,700 on DK and his 14.8-point projected ceiling is the fourth-highest among all tight ends priced under $4,000 on DK. Ebron will likely see a lot of Bears safety Adrian Amos, PFF’s 21st-highest graded safety of 2016.
Ebron is questionable for Week 4 but practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Bryan Hoyer
It’ll likely be the Brian Hoyer show once again. Jay Cutler is officially doubtful and seems likely to miss his second consecutive game. In Ctuler absence, Hoyer was more than competent during the Bears’ Week 3 loss to the Cowboys, throwing for 317 passing yards and two touchdowns. Through three games neither QB has managed to lead the offense to more than 17 points, although they’ll face a Lions defense that has allowed 28.3 points per game. The uncertainty surrounding who will be under center will hopefully be cleared up closer to Sunday, but whoever ends up starting will have a good matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed 1.3 points above salary-based expectations to the position over the past 12 months.
RB – Jordan Howard
Howard’s time is now. Jeremy Langford is sidelined for four to six weeks with a sprained ankle and Howard is the next man up, considering Ka’Deem Carey is still battling a hamstring injury. Howard has looked great in his limited work, rushing for 67 yards on just 12 carries. While PFF has graded Langford as the worst RB in the league through three weeks, Howard has been graded as the 30th-best RB. He has a great matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed a league-high 5.1 yards per rush in 2016. They’ve also struggled to keep teams out of the end zone, as evidenced by their defense allowing a touchdown on 4.92 percent of their opponent’s snaps over the past 12 months — the second-worst mark in the league. Howard is priced at $3,700 on DK and his +8.8 Projected Plus/Minus is the highest among all RBs in Week 4.
RB – Joique Bell
Carey is listed as doubtful on account of his hamstring injury. At this point he appears unlikely to play against the Lions. The Bears signed Bell on Tuesday for additional RB depth, but he isn’t a playable option on DK or FD this week due to the midweek signing. He’s also not expected to eat into Howard’s workload.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery has performed like a top receiver this season . . . when given the chance. His 13.6 yards per target are the second-most in the league and it seems as though the Bears’ best chance of gaining yards on offense consists of throwing the ball up for Jeffery. He’s caught all five of his contested targets this season, per playerprofiler.com. His 6.7 targets per game are likely the result of a small sample size as Jeffery has averaged nearly 8.5 targets per game over the course of his five-year career. This week may be as good as any for the Bears to get Jeffery more involved in the offense, as he’s thrived in games with a similar implied total in the past:
As our Trends tool shows, Jeffery has a strong +6.05 Plus/Minus and has averaged 20.78 DK points in his 10 games with a similar implied total over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $8,200 on FD with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and faces a Lions secondary that is lacking outside of Darius Slay — PFF’s 17th-highest graded cornerback of 2016.
Jeffery has been limited in practice this week but is expected to play. He’s listed as questionable.
WR – Kevin White
Through three games, White has seven more targets than Jeffery but 139 fewer yards. White was supposed to bring a vertical element to the Bears offense with his 4.3 speed but has just one reception over 20 yards on the season. The Bears appear set on making him a featured part of their offense whether he is ready or not, so White will continue to be worth monitoring despite the lack of production thus far. If the Lions choose to have Slay shadow Jeffery, it could result in some solid matchups for White, as no other cornerback on the Lions roster has been graded higher than 76th by PFF. He’s priced at $3,400 on DK; his salary has dropped by $1,800 since the season opener.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal was targeted just three times by Hoyer in Week 3 after back-to-back six-target games with Cutler under center. He’s now averaged 12.6 PPR points in his 25 career games playing with Cutler and 7.97 PPR points with anyone else during his nine-year career. Royal is priced at $3,500 on DraftKings with a 91 percent Bargain Rating, although he’s not a recommended play due to his small role in the offense.
TE – Zach Miller
While Royal took a step back with Hoyer at quarterback, Miller took a large step forward. His nine targets were as many as he received in the first two weeks of the season, and he converted them into 78 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Much of the work came against Byron Jones — PFF’s highest-graded cover safety of 2016. Miller has now caught 15 of his 18 targets this season and has the highest catch rate on the team. If the Bears decide that White is in over his head with his current role in the offense, Miller could be the receiver to benefit. He’s priced at $2,700 on DK and his nine DK Pro Trends are tied for the most among all tight ends.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
