The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Colts at Jaguars
The Colts are fresh off of their first win of the season and will travel to London as 2.5-point favorites. The Jaguars are implied to score 23.5 points and the Colts are implied to score 26 points. This game could turn into a shootout, as the Jaguars-Colts’ current total of 49.5 points is the third-highest in Week 4. They’ll be facing off at Wembley Stadium in London bright and early on Sunday. Let’s take a look at who will be setting out to prove American football is the best football.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Luck performed well in his first game without Donte Moncrief, averaging a strong 8.7 yards per attempt. His 21.94 DraftKings points per game ranks seventh among all quarterbacks and there’s reason to believe he could continue to thrive this week against the Jaguars:
As our Trends tool shows, Luck has posted a +5.51 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency and averaged 26.01 DK points in his 12 games with a similar implied total over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $7,400 on DK and his 12.3-point projected floor is the third-highest among all quarterbacks. Luck will face a Jaguars defense that has allowed 3.4 points above salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months.
RB – Frank Gore
The Colts have now gone 42 straight games without a 100-yard rusher, per PFR. Gore had a strong first half in the Colts’ Week 3 win over the Chargers but couldn’t quite break the infamous streak. His large workload continued, as his 22 touches last Sunday brought his season average up to nearly 19 touches per game. The problem for Gore has been his efficiency, as he’s averaged just 0.71 fantasy points per opportunity — the 39th-most among all running backs, per playerprofiler.com. He’s priced at $6,100 on FanDuel with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and has a strong +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus. Gore will look to finally make good use of his massive workload against a Jaguars defense that finished in the bottom-six in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs.
RB – Josh Ferguson
Ferguson’s role in the offense seems to have settled in at around five touches per game. Although he’s been the Colts’ most effective receiver out of the backfield, he won’t be worthy of fantasy consideration until Gore misses time or is given a reduced workload. Ferguson is priced at the DK minimum.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
Hilton absolutely balled out in Week 3 against the Chargers. He beat Jason Verrett so badly and so often that Verrett fell all the way to 74th among PFF’s best corners of 2016. Hilton caught eight of his 11 targets for 174 receiving yards, including a dagger 63-yard touchdown to win the game for the Colts. With Moncrief out for the foreseeable future, Hilton should continue to be fed the ball in the passing game. He’ll face a Jaguars secondary that is highlighted by rookie Jalen Ramsey, who has given up just 10 receptions for 63 yards through his first three games — the best production among all cornerbacks who have been targeted at least 10 times, per PFF. Hilton is priced at $7,000 on DK and has the third-highest projected ceiling among all wide receivers priced under $7,500 on DK.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
Dorsett (ankle) has been added to the injury report and is listed as questionable. He was limited in practice on Friday and is a potential game-time decision.
Dorsett was expected to be featured in the Colts offense with Moncrief out, but he was targeted just four times against the Chargers in Week 3. He took a back seat to both Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle in terms of targets, although his game-breaking speed hasn’t gone anywhere. Dorsett is still averaging a strong 18.9 yards per reception and is a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball. He’ll look to take the top off of a Jaguars secondary that has allowed just eight receptions over 20-plus yards this season, per NFL.com. Dorsett is priced at $4,700 on DK with six Pro Trends.
WR – Chester Rogers
Rogers, despite his status as the Colts’ No. 3 wide receiver, is still too far down Luck’s pecking order to be considered a viable fantasy option. He played 31 snaps in Week 3 but failed to catch either of his two targets. He costs the DK minimum but has a very low 2.3-point projected floor.
TE – Dwayne Allen
Through three weeks, Allen has been outplayed by Doyle. Both tight ends have 15 targets on the season, but Allen has four fewer catches, 24 fewer yards, and one less touchdown than Doyle. Allen is still the starting tight end and should continue to play a majority of the snaps, but he’s now been outproduced by Doyle in each of the Colts’ first three games of 2016. Allen is priced at $3,800 on DraftKings with a 79 percent Bargain Rating and has a good matchup against a Jaguars defense that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2015.
TE – Jack Doyle
Doyle has settled in as Luck’s most reliable receiver in the offense. He’s caught 13 of his 15 targets this season, giving him the third-best catch rate among all tight ends. Doyle has taken advantage of those opportunities, averaging a strong 2.58 fantasy points per target. He’ll likely continue to play behind Allen, but Doyle has been the better tight end this season by almost every statistical measure. Doyle is priced at the DK minimum and his +4.8 Projected Plus/Minus is the highest among all minimum-priced tight ends.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Bortles struggled in Week 3 against the Ravens, averaging just 5.1 yards per attempt and throwing three interceptions. He has a chance to turn things around against the Colts; he’s historically performed well in games with a similar implied total:
As our Trends tool shows, Bortles has posted a +7.43 Plus/Minus with 71.4 percent Consistency and averaged 23.97 DraftKings points in his seven games with a similar implied total in his career. He’ll look to continue this success against a Colts defense that is currently allowing 31.7 points per game — the third-worst mark in the league. Bortles’ 12.5-point projected DK floor is the highest among all QBs priced under $7,000 on DK.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
The return of Chris Ivory did nothing to help the struggling Yeldon, as through three weeks he still ranks among the worst running backs in the league in efficiency. He’s not among the top-55 RBs in either yards per carry or yards per target, and he’s been the lead back for a Jaguars offense that has rushed for just 2.8 yards per carry this season. Ivory out-touched Yeldon in his first game back, which is concerning news for Yeldon considering Ivory was playing through knee and ankle sprains. He’s priced at $4,600 on DK with an 87 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory’s Jacksonville debut didn’t go quite the way he expected, as he gained just 14 rushing yards on 12 carries. He’s now averaged just 6.03 PPR points in his 46 games with fewer than 15 rush attempts. The good news for Ivory is that he splits snaps with Yeldon and received more touches in a week in which he was playing through knee and ankle sprains. This would suggest the Jaguars consider Ivory the team’s feature back, but he’ll need to do more with his touches to establish that role. Rushing yards should be easier to come by this week against a Colts front seven that was ranked as the seventh-worst in the league by PFF. Ivory is significantly cheaper than Yeldon this week and his $3,700 DK salary comes with an 82 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Allen Robinson
Robinson finally found the end zone in Week 3 and enjoyed himself so much that he went back for seconds. A big reason for the positive performance was his involvement in the red zone. Robinson scored 12 touchdowns on 22 red-zone targets in 2015, and with two scores last week he’s now converted two of his four red-zone targets into touchdowns this season. His three red-zone receptions are tied for the 10th-most among all wide receivers this season, impressive considering the Jaguars are among the 10 most infrequent red-zone visitors in the league. Although the Colts welcomed back Vontae Davis in Week 3, he was graded poorly by PFF and may not be all the way back to 100 percent just yet. Robinson is priced at $8,300 on FD with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and faces a Colts defense that has allowed 1.2 points above salary-based expectation to WRs over the past 12 months.
WR – Allen Hurns
Through three weeks, Hurns’ 11.3 DraftKings points per game ranks just 50th among all WRs. Despite the slow start, there’s reason to believe he could get back on track this week, as he’s historically balled out in games not in Jacksonville:
Hurns’ ridiculous +9.33 Plus/Minus in his nine road/neutral games over the past two seasons is accompanied by a strong 77.8 percent Consistency. Although he’ll face a rejuvenated Colts secondary that has recently welcomed back both Patrick Robinson and Vontae Davis, they struggled against wide receivers in 2015, finishing in the bottom-eight in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to the position. Hurns is priced at $4,800 on DK and his seven Pro Trends are tied for the fourth-most among all WRs.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee has now received seven targets in back-to-back weeks and has been Bortles’ third-favorite receiver in the offense behind Hurns and Robinson. Despite the extra attention, Lee still hasn’t done much, averaging just 7.8 yards per target. He’s still providing value for his cheap price, posting a +2.57 Plus/Minus through three weeks. Lee is priced at $3,100 on DK and his 5.6-point projected floor is among the highest for all receivers priced under $3,500 on DK.
TE – Julius Thomas
Thomas didn’t practice Wednesday and Thursday with an elbow injury. He suffered the injury during the Jaguars’ Week 3 loss to the Ravens. He’s questionable for the game and expected to be a game-time decision for the team’s Week 4 matchup.
Thomas has played well this season, averaging 1.87 fantasy points per target — a 23 percent increase from his 2015 average. The problem has come down to his limited role in the Jaguars offense, as he’s been just the fifth-most targeted receiver on the team through three weeks. The team discussed the desire to get Thomas more involved in the red zone this season, but he still hasn’t been targeted inside the 20-yard line. He’s priced at $4,400 on DraftKings and has a great matchup against a Colts defense that has allowed 3.3 points above salary-based expectations to tight ends over the past 12 months.
News Updates
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