The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Chiefs at Steelers
This game currently has a Vegas total of 47.5 points, tied for the fourth-highest total of Week 4. The Steelers are currently 4.5-point favorites at home. They are implied to score 26 points. The Chiefs are implied to score 21.5 points.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
The Steelers’ pass defense is ranked 24th by Football Outsiders through the first three games of the season. That mediocre ranking falls right in line with the +2.6 Opponent Plus/Minus they have allowed to QBs over the last 16 games. Per our Trends tool, DraftKings QBs with comparable salaries and situations have provided a +1.26 Plus/Minus with 51.1 percent Consistency. Smith has some sneaky upside this week in guaranteed prize pools with his rushing ability and the Steelers’ struggles to defend short-intermediate throws.
RB – Spencer Ware
Through three weeks Ware has posted a +6.98 DK Plus/Minus and averaged 18.57 DK points. He’s been explosive as a receiver and runner, as his 7.6 yards per touch are the second-most among all running backs this season. The Steelers currently are 15th against the run but 30th in pass defense against RBs (per Football Outsiders). They gave up 79 yards on 17 carries to rookie Wendell Smallwood just last week, as well as a rushing touchdown.
On a road underdog facing a team that allows RBs to catch but not run, Ware could have a rough game if he doesn’t start to see more involvement as a receiver. In GPPs Ware could be an under-the-radar play with a FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent in the Sunday Million (accessible via our Player Models). Ware could be a nice leverage play on Le’Veon Bell in the same game at a lower salary and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – Jamaal Charles
Charcandrick West has been ruled out for Week 4, and Charles will reportedly make his 2014 debut, even though he still saw some snaps with the scout team this week in practice. He will likely be on a snap account and behind Ware, although it’s possible that Charles could receive the bulk of the pass-catching workload.
Last year, Charles averaged 21.22 and 18.12 DK and FD points in five games and was perhaps the best RB in the league at the time of his injury. On the one hand, he could be an immense value at $5,400 on DK and $7,000 on FD if his workload is greater than most people anticipate it will be and/or if he receives goal-line touches. On the other hand, given that he is working his way back from an ACL tear, he may no longer be even the best RB on his own team.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
With a 24.56 percent target share through three weeks and an overwhelming 40.26 percent market share of Air Yards . . .
. . . Maclin remains the focal point of this Chiefs passing game and this week goes against a Pittsburgh secondary that allows the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus to FD WRs on the slate (+2.7 points).
Per our Matchups tool, Maclin will line up primarily against cornerback Ross Cockrell. This is a tough matchup, but Maclin certainly didn’t embarrass himself in Week 1 against Chargers stud cornerback Jason Verrett. Maclin remains undervalued and underappreciated, and he has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of five to eight percent in the Sunday Million. We currently have Maclin rated as our sixth-highest FD WR in our Tournament Model. He should definitely be on the GPP radar.
WR – Chris Conley
Last year, the Chiefs had the sixth-highest second-half time of possession rate (53.31 percent). They want to control the ball and establish the run. That’s not good news for Conley, the team’s current No. 2 WR. This week, according to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool, he’s likely to square off against the Steelers’ highest-PFF graded cornerback, William Gay. Even at just $4,800 on FD, Conley’s a risky play, as it’s tough to imagine Smith supporting more than one WR in the passing game consistently. Conley has just a 14.04 percent target share through three weeks.
TE – Travis Kelce
Accounting for an 18.42 percent target share, Kelce is a key member of the Kansas City passing game. He leads the team with a 29.4 percent target share in the red zone. An elite talent, Kelce almost always has GPP appeal. He has the third-highest FD ceiling, even in a tough matchup, as the Steelers on paper as they were able to limit Jordan Reed to seven catches for 64 yards in Week 1. However, Pittsburgh has struggled to defend against short receptions and yards after the catch. The Smith-Kelce stack is in play this week and is projected to have low ownership.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger has struggled this season, throwing four interceptions and fumbling four times (luckily only losing one). Last week Big Ben was unable to get anything going against FO’s No. 3 passing defense, throwing for only 257 yards on 44 attempts. Antonio Brown accounted for 55 percent of those yards. Much of the chatter this offseason about the Martavis Bryant-less Steelers was ignored, but Ben his simply not been ‘Big Ben’ when Martavis hasn’t been on the field.
Ben rates poorly this week, as the Chiefs allow a slate-low -2.9 Opponent FD Plus/Minus to QBs.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Last season, Bell played 95 percent of the snaps in his first game back. He carried the ball 19 times, saw eight targets, and converted a goal-line carry into a touchdown. In that game the Pittsburgh offense scored only 12 points against the Bengals and yet Bell still managed to accumulate 26.2 DK points.
This week Bell will face off against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards this season and is FO’s 16th-ranked unit against the run. Fire up your Pittsburgh bell cow. Bell trails only David Johnson in his ceiling projection.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
In the five full games that Bell played in 2015, Williams averaged 6.4 snaps. With Bell returning this week, there was some early speculation that there might be a timeshare, but the Steelers squashed that notion. DeAngelo probably won’t be relevant again without a Le’Veon injury.
WR – Antonio Brown
After a big week against Philadelphia, Antonio now leads the NFL in targets with 40. Even with a down Week 2, Brown grades out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 9 WR on the season. No other receiver on the Steelers saw more than five targets last week, as Brown was targeted on 18 of 44 of Ben’s attempts. There is no reason to think that Brown can’t continue his pace of 13 targets per game.
Brown is likely to spend the majority of his day running routes against Phillip Gaines, according to the FantasyLabs Matchups Tool. Gaines grades out as PFF’s 90th-ranked cornerback on the season. Brown is seeing almost 34 percent of Pittsburgh’s targets and has the highest projected ceiling among WRs.
WR – Markus Wheaton
As mentioned above, no Steelers wide receiver outside of Brown saw more than five targets in Week 3. With Wheaton healthy, Ben now has multiple receiving options beyond Brown. Unfortunately, this limits their individual upside. Last season Wheaton averaged five targets per game, leading to an average stat line of 3-47-0.3. Those numbers look feasible this year and in Week 4.
With Eli Rogers ruled out, Wheaton is likely to see more time in the slot this week and could absorb some of Rogers’ targets.
WR – Sammie Coates
Coates continues to play the deep-threat role, but unfortunately that role has only given him 12 targets on the season. When a receiver is averaging 9.5 percent of a team’s target share, his floor is essentially nonexistent. Of course, Coates does have a high ceiling, given his 28.95 percent share of Air Yards.
TE – Jesse James
The Outlaw experiment was short-lived. James saw seven targets in Week 1, five in Week 2, and then only four in Week 3. With Wheaton back on the field, there simply is not enough volume to support these pass catchers. Fortunately for James, almost 20 percent of his targets have come in the red zone. So he might still be able to survive on the occasional touchdown, as Gollum survived in the Misty Mountains by sometimes capturing a juicy orc.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
