The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Browns at Redskins
The Browns are currently 7.5-point underdogs against the Redskins in a game that has a modest over/under of 46. The Browns have an implied team total of only 19.25 points and the Redskins’ implied total is 26.75 — the second-highest mark of Week 4.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Cody Kessler
Kessler was 21 of 33 for 244 yards and no touchdowns in his first NFL start. However, he did complete a two-point conversion to Gary Barnidge. While Kessler threw zero interceptions, he had at least one interception dropped and he fumbled twice (losing one). It was a rocky start for Kessler against Miami’s 15th-ranked passing defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average).
This week Kessler faces off against a Washington defense ranked 32nd against the run, per DVOA. We should expect Cleveland to hide their quarterback behind the run game as much as possible. With a DK projected floor of only 3.5 points — the second-lowest mark of all QBs — Kessler is a fringe GPP dart at best.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
While Crowell is averaging 6.1 yards per carry on the season, he is averaging 8.3 YPC when leading and 5.0 YPC while trailing. This is clearly a negative for Crowell this week, as the Browns are such large underdogs. According to the FantasyLabs Trends tool, FanDuel RBs have a -0.53 Plus/Minus when greater than a seven-point road dog.
Even though he is handling over 50 percent of the snaps and 59 percent of carries, he is averaging only 1.33 targets per game and thus is really susceptible to game flow. What is especially troubling is that Crowell has had only two carries inside the 10-yard line. Although he has two touchdowns, he will struggle to keep up that pace without more goal-line carries. That being said, Crowell faces a Washington defense that has allowed 4.6 YPC and seven touchdowns this season. He is an interesting tournament play and has a 90 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings this week.
RB – Duke Johnson
Johnson finally had the PPR game people had been hoping for and he still scored only 13.1 DraftKings points. After seeing 13 total touches over the first two weeks, Duke saw 15 touches in Week 3. Unfortunately, his usage is difficult to predict. Plus, his weekly ceiling is not as high as Crowell’s because of his lack of involvement in the red zone. Unlike Crowell, Duke has only a 22 percent Bargain Rating this week on DraftKings.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
Pryor looks to be chalk city on DraftKings this week ($4,300) after putting together a 34.9-point game in Week 3. Pryor is not nearly as good of a value on FanDuel at $7,000.
Surprisingly, after three weeks, Pryor is one of 10 players in the NFL who is averaging 10-plus weekly targets. In Week 3, Kessler was locked onto Pryor, targeting him on an impressive 42 percent of his passes. Further, Pryor currently leads the NFL with a 54.55 percent share of the Browns’ air yards.
He was also used as a goal-line quarterback, rushing for a three-yard touchdown. In DFS, we want to target running backs who get goal-line carries and wide receivers who get a high market share of their team’s targets. In Week 3, Pryor did both.
The opportunity is absolutely going to be there for Pryor this week, but according to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool, he draws a tough matchup against cornerback Josh Norman. Since the fourth quarter of Week 2, Norman has been shadowing the top opposing wide receiver. However, those receivers were studs Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham. It remains to be seen if the Redskins will shadow Pryor with Norman. Redskins head coach Jay Gruden has indicated that Norman won’t shadow Pryor, but that could be just coachspeak.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
Hawkins has seen only 10 targets this season and is part of an offense that can support only one wide receiver. He has played the second-most snaps for the Browns this season but has graded poorly (52.9), per Pro Football Focus. Hawkins is not seeing enough volume to be anything more than a desperation GPP dart.
WR – Ricardo Louis
As the clear third wide receiver in Week 3, Louis played 51 of 82 snaps, but much like Hawkins he saw only four targets. The wide receivers beyond Pryor may struggle to see volume this week. However, if Pryor is indeed shadowed by Norman, one of Louis or Hawkins may see an increased role.
TE – Gary Barnidge
Barnidge had his best game in 2016 last week, catching five of six targets for 66 yards and a two-point conversion. It was encouraging to see him used in the red zone, as he now has only 13 targets on the season. Barnidge has a projected floor of 5.4 FanDuel points in Adam Levitan’s Player Model, making him a GPP-only play.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
Cousins is currently the No. 1 rated quarterback in the Bales Player Model for FanDuel, where he has a top-five projected floor. The Browns defense has allowed the ninth-most FD points to quarterbacks (19.5) this season and the Redskins have the third-highest Vegas implied point total on the slate. QBs in comparable spots have produced a +5.30 Plus/Minus on FD with excellent 80.8 percent Consistency. Cousins is currently projected to be the highest-owned QB on FD this week, setting him up as a safe cash-game play.
RB – Matt Jones
Jones continues to dominate carries for the Redskins with a 62.71 percent market share, but that equates to just 12.33 carries per game in this pass-heavy offense. Cleveland ranks 20th against the run through three weeks (per Football Outsiders), and the Redskins are at home and favored by the second-largest spread on the slate. Similarly-priced running backs playing at home as big favorites have generated a +5.60 Plus/Minus on DK with 69.6 percent Consistency. Jones’ FantasyLabs projected ownership is less than five percent for the DraftKings Millionaire Maker this week, and he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating on that site. Firing him up as low-owned play in GPPs is a fine option.
RB – Chris Thompson
Thompson continues to get snaps for the Redskins (he’s played 10 more snaps than Jones), but he gets very limited volume. He’s gotten a total of 12 carries and eight targets in the first three games. Playing as a big favorite at home, it’s unlikely the third-down RB will have a big game.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Football Outsiders ranks Cleveland 27th defending No. 1 receivers this season. Our Matchups tool shows that Jackson will frequently line up opposite Jamar Taylor, who currently has a 57.5 grade from PFF. Jackson’s 79.4 grade from PFF gives him a 21.9-point advantage when covered by Taylor. Despite ranking third on the Redskins with a 19.33 percent target share, Jackson ranks first on the team with 29.89 percent of the team’s air yards. Because of his ability to convert long touchdowns, Jackson is always in play for GPPs.
WR – Pierre Garcon
Garcon was targeted seven times last week, and that is the most targets he’s seen in a game this season. His upside is severely limited with Jackson, Crowder, and Reed all getting more volume on a weekly basis. Garcon has a 91 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where his FantasyLabs projected ownership is zero to one percent in the Milly Maker. He comes with big risk, but stacking him with Cousins in that tournament would more than likely ensure you have a unique lineup.
WR – Jamison Crowder
He may be listed as the No. 3 WR on the depth chart, but Crowder is playing like the Redskins’ No. 1 receiver. He is tied with Jordan Reed for the team lead in targets (25), he’s third with a 16.79 percent share of the air yards, and he’s gotten the most touches inside the 10-yard line (3) for the Redskins this season. Crowder and Jordy Nelson lead the NFL with eight red-zone targets. He turned a screen pass into a 55-yard touchdown last week, then broke multiple tackles and Dwayne Harris‘ ankles on a 50-yard punt return. Cleveland’s slot-corner Tramon Williams has a brutal 42.2 grade (93rd at the position) from Pro Football Focus. Crowder has seen a +$900 Salary Change on FanDuel, but he has an 80 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he gets the added benefit of PPR scoring. Crowder is in play for both cash games and GPPs this week. Pairing him with the Redskins D/ST would be a smooth correlation move in GPPs.
TE – Jordan Reed
Cousins has attempted 23 passes in the red zone (second-most) this season. Reed has been targeted just three times on those 23 attempts and has yet to score a touchdown this season. That needs to change. The Browns rank 22nd defending tight ends this season (per Football Outsiders) and have allowed the fifth-most DK points (19.0) to the position. Reed currently has the second-highest projected ceiling on the slate. He’s tied with Crowder for the team lead in targets. Reed is a delicious GPP play on DK this week. Don’t be left wishing you had rostered Reed the week he had a multiple-TD game.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
