The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Broncos at Buccaneers
This game currently has a 45.5-point implied Vegas total. The Broncos travel to Florida as three-point favorites with an implied Vegas total of 23.75 points. The Buccaneers are home underdogs with a 20.75-point implied total.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
Essentially trolling the entire DFS community with one @,
Elway apparently saw something coming that not many did in Week 3. Siemian went off for four touchdowns and 312 yards against a Bengals team that gave up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and was the 10th-ranked defense against the pass in 2015, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). This week, he gets a Bucs team that has allowed a nice +2.8 Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs over the last 12 months. However, this is still Trevor Siemian we are talking about — the same guy that threw for one touchdown and didn’t crack an 80-point QBR in the first two weeks. He has a frightening floor on DraftKings of just 5.7 points, the seventh-worst mark on the slate. For those reasons he isn’t a cash-game option; however, he does have a FantasyLabs projected ownership range of just zero to one percent.
RB – C.J. Anderson
We know that opportunity matters a whole lot for RBs, and Anderson certainly has opportunity. After three games, he is top-10 in the league in rush attempts, currently holds a 65.06 percent rushing share, sits at fourth in the league with 13 red-zone rush attempts, and owns a 76.5 percent team red-zone rushing share. On a team that has attempted the 27th-fewest amount of passes in 2016, Anderson is still averaging 4.67 targets per game. Against a funnel defense that stops the run very well, Anderson has a tough matchup this week against a Bucs defense that has given up the seventh-fewest FanDuel points to RBs so far this season. Anderson has GPP upside on volume alone; just last week Todd Gurley hung a 27-85-2 stat line at just two to four percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million. Anderson is projected for even less ownership at zero to one percent; there’s upside here.
RB – Devontae Booker
Booker has yet to see more than 10 touches in a game and that won’t likely change anytime soon. Anderson will get all the volume he can handle against the Bucs, making the fourth-round rookie a risky play in any contest. He’s currently the fourth-lowest rated RB in the Bales Player Model for Week 4 on FanDuel.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Thomas had a late 55-yard score in the fourth quarter of Week 3 to narrowly avoid another disappointing fantasy day. Before that it was the Siemian-Sanders show. Thomas now trails Emmanuel Sanders in target share (21.98 percent versus 28.57 percent), market share of Air Yards (31.48 percent versus 35.31 percent), and red-zone target share (16.7 percent versus 58.3 percent) — yet he’s still more expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On the plus side, he’s facing a Bucs team that ranked 26th against the pass last year. His FantasyLabs projected ownership is only two to four percent, so at least he can serve to differentiate a lineup on the off-chance Siemian keeps dealing.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
Upside in this passing game came seemingly out of nowhere in Week 3 and Sanders dropped a 9-117-2 stat line against the Bengals. However, it’s important to note that in Weeks 1 and 2, Siemian threw the second-fewest passes among all starting QBs. As such, the volume for Sanders just might not be there to ever be a cash-game option in 2016. However, Sanders is quietly tied for second in the league in red-zone targets and Siemian seems to be looking for him where it matters most:
WR – Jordan Norwood
A minimum-priced option yet again on DK and FD, Norwood is not likely to get enough volume in Week 4 to be anything more than a GPP dart.
TE – Jeff Heuerman and John Phillips
Starter Virgil Green missed Week 3 and has been ruled out for Week 4. Replacing him will be Heuerman and Phillips. Head coach Gary Kubiak has historically featured his TE in the passing game, but any TE in the Broncos offense may be limited as long as Siemian is under center, as he’s thrown just 13.6 percent of his passes to tight ends — the fifth-lowest mark in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
The Broncos defense has been ruthless to start the season, getting after the quarterback relentlessly with a 9.22 percent sack rate. Per our Matchups tool:
They present a very difficult matchup for Winston this week, as the Broncos have limited opposing quarterbacks to a -1.5 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Denver also has limited opposing quarterbacks to just 178.3 passing yards per game and 0.67 passing touchdowns per game. Winston will be very contrarian and low-owned across all formats this weekend given the matchup.
RB – Charles Sims
In a wild game last week with the Rams, Sims finished with 19 touches and a touchdown, easily exceeding value on his $4,900 salary on DK. The Broncos may have a stout pass defense, but they have been susceptible on the ground so far in 2016: They are currently giving up 112.7 total yards per game and 1.33 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. That bodes well for a back like Sims, who saw 75.6 percent of the snaps according to the NFL DFS Week 4 Market Share Report. Sims also saw 76 percent of the running back touches, operating in a true workhorse role. Sims still has high upside in this offense but now gets reduced ownership; we have him projected at two to four percent this weekend.
RB – Jacquizz Rodgers
Joining the team last week, Rodgers got six touches in Week 3. This backfield belongs to Sims, however. Rodgers isn’t really in DFS consideration barring an injury.
WR – Mike Evans
Although this is a tough matchup for Evans, he will see volume — both early and late. Evans’ 39 targets trail only Antonio Brown so far this season; Winston has gone to his top receiver 27.5 percent of the time. After facing tough matchups against Desmond Trufant and Patrick Peterson, he draws another difficult matchup with Denver’s trio of stud cornerbacks. Winston has already shown he’s not afraid to force feed Evans the ball regardless of matchup. Working in Evans’ favor this week is his very low $6,500 DK price tag and two to four percent projected ownership. He’s too talented to not take some GPP shots with him at those marks.
WR – Vincent Jackson
I’m not really sure what V-Jax is doing this year to warrant 85.6 percent of the Bucs’ snaps, but it sure isn’t producing fantasy points. That likely won’t change this week, as he’s set to line up against Aqib Talib in Week 4. Denver corners are limiting opposing wide receivers to a -0.8 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, the lowest rate in the league.
WR – Adam Humphries
Catching nine of 12 targets for 100 yards last week, Humphries excelled underneath as a checkdown option for Winston. Unfortunately for Humphries, we may have to wait until Week 5 to use him again given his matchup. Chris Harris currently ranks as Pro Football Focus’ fifth-best cornerback through the first three weeks and has shut down opposing slot receivers to date. However, given the Broncos’ pass rush success, Humphries could see a lot of drag and quick slant routes as an outlet receiver for Winston. He’s the $3,000 DK minimum and owns a 91 percent Bargain Rating there.
TE – Cameron Brate
Following Austin Seferian-Jenkins‘ release, Brate had a coming out party to the tune of a 5-46-2 line against the Rams. I noted last week that Brate was an interesting tournament option, and I believe he could be in play once again in Week 4. Brate accounted for 17.2 percent of the team’s targets last week and looks like another bargain-bin tight end play at $2,800 on DK. This might seem like touchdown-chasing, but Brate saw 10 targets last week and currently has six Pro Trends in his favor. Tampa Bay has now moved into the top-five in passing play percentage (67.4 percent); Brate could see some looks in garbage time if Denver beats their current three-point spread.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
