The Week 4 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sept. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Keenan Allen: $7,600 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel
- Tyler Lockett: $6,300 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
- Marquise Brown: $5,800 DraftKings; $5,700 FanDuel
- Terry McLaurin: $4,500 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
- Trey Quinn: $3,000 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
Keenan Allen: Los Angeles Chargers (-15.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 44 Over/Under
I just need to take an “L” on Keenan and move on. I’ve been a longtime Allen skeptic, but his start to the season has been dominant.
- Week 1 (vs. Colts): 22.3 FanDuel points, 8-123-1 receiving on 10 targets
- Week 2 (at Lions): 13.8 FanDuel points, 8-98-0 receiving on 15 targets
- Week 3 (vs. Texans): 37.1 FanDuel points, 13-183-2 receiving on 17 targets, 1-3-0 rushing
Allen is the No. 1 fantasy receiver on the year with 31.2 DraftKings and 24.4 FanDuel points per game. He’s also No. 1 at the position with 42 targets, 29 receptions, 404 yards receiving and 495 air yards. Keenan is #krushing.
If you use the FantasyLabs Trends tool to sort through receiver production, you’ll see that since 2015 only five wide receivers have more than Keenan’s 14.7 FanDuel points per game (including playoffs, not counting small-sample rookies).
- Antonio Brown: 18.5
- Julio Jones: 16.3
- Odell Beckham Jr.: 16.1
- DeAndre Hopkins: 15.2
- Tyreek Hill: 14.8
Allen has been at the top of the tier right underneath the league’s highest-tier wide receivers for most of the past half decade. And now, he is probably in that tier. With the sheer volume he’s getting each week, he’s hard not to roster.
This is the part in the piece where I would generally try to impeach Keenan — but I’m not going to. I’m fully capitulating.
With wide receiver Tyrell Williams on the Raiders and tight ends Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates respectively injured and deceased (metaphorically?), Allen has very little competition for targets, so he is dominating the Chargers passing game. He currently ranks No. 1 in the league with a 0.36 target share and 0.46 market share of air yards (per AirYards.com).
Allen has a great matchup against the Dolphins, who are in full-on tank mode. Gone from last year’s defense are almost all the key players, including edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, tackle Akeem Spence, linebacker Kiko Alonso and 2018 first-round do-it-all defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick.
The Dolphins are dead last in the league with a 109.1% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). If the Chargers want to pass against them, they should be able to do so.
I expect that No. 1 cornerback Xavien Howard will shadow Allen. All apologies to Howard, but this matchup isn’t even close.
First of all, the Chargers can scheme Allen open by moving him to the slot, where he has run 47.6% of his routes this year: Howard historically doesn’t follow receivers into the slot. Additionally, whenever Allen is on the outside, he should win his one-on-one matchups with Howard, who probably isn’t a true shutdown corner: He’s still yet to have a coverage grade of 80.0 (per Pro Football Focus).
Just last week, Howard shadowed Amari Cooper, defending him on 90.3% of his routes. Amari turned his five Howard-directed targets into a 5-70-2 sit-the-f—k-down receiving beatdown. Allen could go for 100 yards and two touchdowns against Howard if he sees his usual volume.
The main question with Allen is whether he will be targeted with his usual frequency. The Chargers are slate-best 15.5-point favorites, so they could have a run-heavy game script for much of the game. As a result, some people might question whether Allen is suitable for cash games.
Amazingly, I’m not worried about Allen being game-scripted out of the contest. Since Ken Whisenhunt returned to the Chargers in 2016 as the offensive coordinator, Allen has had strong favorite/underdog splits.
- As favorite (22 games): 16.0 FanDuel points, +4.23 Plus/Minus, 63.6% Consistency Rating
- As underdog (13 games): 11.3 FanDuel points, -1.66 Plus/Minus, 23.1% Consistency Rating
Even if the Chargers rely on the run, at some point they will need to throw the ball. When they do, Allen will probably be the guy targeted.
Allen will almost certainly be the most-rostered receiver on the slate in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools — deservedly so.
Allen is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan Model for FanDuel, where he leads all receivers with his median, ceiling and floor projections.
Tyler Lockett: Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Arizona Cardinals, 48 O/U
Last year, Lockett had a magically efficient season. He turned 57 receptions and 13 carries into 1,034 yards and 10 touchdowns. He produced a perfect QB rating of 158.3 for Russell Wilson on his 70 targets. He had a league-high 77.8% catch rate on passes of at least 20 yards.
And somehow he’s been even better this year.
- Week 1 (vs. Bengals): 10.9 FanDuel points, 1-44-1 receiving on two targets
- Week 2 (at Steelers): 12.9 FanDuel points, 10-79-0 receiving on 12 targets
- Week 3 (vs. Saints): 26.9 FanDuel points, 11-154-1 receiving on 14 targets
With the offseason retirement of longtime No. 1 wide receiver Doug Baldwin, Lockett is now the clear top pass-catching option for the Seahawks. He leads the team with 28 targets, 22 receptions and 277 yards receiving and is No. 2 with 314 air yards and 82 yards after the catch.
The promise that Lockett had as a do-it-all speedster and voluminous producer coming out of Kansas State in 2015 — it is finally being fulfilled in 2019. Lockett is a top-12 fantasy wide receiver with 21.6 DraftKings and 16.9 FanDuel points per game.
And this is a good spot for Lockett against the Cardinals. Lockett this year has run 72.6% of his routes from the slot, so I expect him to be matched up with cornerback Tramaine Brock for much of the game. This year, Brock has allowed a 10-229-2 receiving line on 16 targets and at least 70 yards each week.
And when he lines up out wide, Lockett should still smash: The Cardinals are without starting outside cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve). Replacing Peterson and Alford are Chris Jones and Byron Murphy. To quote Al Pacino, “Hoo-Ah!”
Jones is a 2018 undrafted free agent who ran a molasses-inspired 4.72-second 40-yard dash and played not one snap last year. Murphy is a second-round rookie who has good technique but just three NFL games to his name and a slot-leaning skill set. Neither one is best as an exterior pass defender. Lockett should be able to beat either one of them.
Perhaps best of all, with their league-leading offense in pace (23.32 seconds per play, per Football Outsiders), the Cardinals create extra opportunities for opposing offenses: Lockett and the Seahawks could have more than 80 offensive snaps this week.
And the Cardinals are one of the four most generous teams to opposing passing games with 918 receiving yards and 1,129 air yards allowed. They are No. 24 with a 70.7 PFF coverage grade — and that honestly feels too high.
Because the Seahawks are a run-heavy team, I probably wouldn’t feel comfortable with Lockett in cash games: As we saw in Week 1, he definitely has a two-target game within his range of outcomes. But for tournaments, Lockett is desirable.
Lockett is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown (15).
Marquise Brown: Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs. Cleveland Browns, 45 O/U
Hollywood did nothing in the preseason because of a foot injury, but since the regular season started, the first-round rookie speedster has flashed.
- Week 1 (at Dolphins): 28.7 FanDuel points, 4-147-2 receiving on five targets
- Week 2 (vs. Cardinals): 12.6 FanDuel points, 8-86-0 receiving on 13 targets
- Week 3 (at Chiefs): 5.9 FanDuel points, 2-49-0 receiving on nine targets
As you see, Brown is not at all consistent. He’s a raw rookie adapting to the NFL and dependent on pass-uncertain quarterback Lamar Jackson. As such, Brown is a cash-game nonstarter, but his volatility makes him GPP perfection.
Brown trails only Allen with an elite 3.24 yards per route and 584 combined air yards and yards after the catch.
Although the Ravens are a run-first team, Brown is tied for No. 18 in the league with his team-high 27 targets. It’s not as if he’s a usage-contingent player. His role and volume on the team are unquestioned.
Here’s what I had to say about Brown in my 2019 post-draft rookie dynasty rankings.
Hollywood enters the NFL with three consecutive seasons of good production. As a true freshman, Brown dominated the community college ranks, leading College of the Canyons in receiving with 50 receptions, 754 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games and chipping in two return touchdowns.
As a four-star junior college recruit, Brown transferred to Oklahoma. And as a sophomore he served as quarterback Baker Mayfield’s top playmaker, leading the Sooners with 1,095 yards and finishing second with 57 receptions and seven touchdowns.
Then last year he put up even better receiving numbers with Kyler Murray, finishing first on the team with 75 receptions and 1,318 yards and second with 10 touchdowns.
His NFL situation, though, is less than ideal: Even so, Brown is likely to be the No. 1 receiver in Baltimore right away, so his target volume should be respectable and he could have some week-winning performances as opposing defenses focus on the running game.
Brown has DeSean Jackson-level potential.
Really, that’s who Hollywood is: He’s the 2019 version of 2008 D-Jax.
And Brown has a great injury-impacted matchup this week: Browns cornerbacks Denzel Ward (hamstring) and Greedy Williams (hamstring) both missed Week 3 and are highly questionable for Week 4. Both missed the Wednesday and Thursday practice sessions.
If he plays, I expect that Ward will shadow Brown. I respect Ward’s ability, but Hollywood has elite speed and should be able to get deep on a hamstrung defender. And if Ward doesn’t play, all the better.
On top of that, safety Morgan Burnett (quad) missed Week 3 and is yet to practice this week.
In all probability, the Browns secondary will be down three starters.
Even though the Browns defense is No. 7 with a -19.8% pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders), Hollywood has blowup potential against the dogs.
Marquise is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +4.08 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends and 98% Bargain Rating.
Terry McLaurin: Washington Redskins (+3) at Giants, 49.5 O/U
UPDATE (Sat. 9/28): McLaurin (hamstring) missed Friday’s practice with an injury, but his absence was reportedly precautionary and he is expected to play on Sunday. His injury, though, makes him a GPP-only play.
Word on them Twitter streets is that Scary Terry f—ks, so he’s pretty much a must-play option this weekend.
In all seriousness, McLaurin is viable in both cash games and GPPs on DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating and is expected to have an ownership rate approaching 20%.
Why is McLaurin in play on DraftKings? It’s the Monday Night Football discount: The Redskins played on Monday night, after Week 4 salaries were set, so the sustained usage and dominance he demonstrated in Week 3 is not factored into his price.
Although he’s just a rookie, McLaurin has impressed to start the season.
- Week 1 (at Eagles): 26.5 DraftKings points, 5-125-1 receiving on seven targets
- Week 2 (vs. Cowboys): 17.2 DraftKings points, 5-62-1 receiving on nine targets
- Week 3 (vs. Bears): 19.0 DraftKings points, 6-70-1 receiving on eight targets
McLaurin is just the third player in NFL history with at least 60 yards and a touchdown receiving in Weeks 1-3 of his rookie season.
The first player to accomplish that feat was wide receiver Billy Howton (1952), who was named to two All-Pro teams as a Packer. The second was wide receiver Louis Lipps (1984), who won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Based on his early production, McLaurin is in good company.
And he has a daisy of a matchup this week. The Giants have allowed a league-high 56.4 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers. I could type out the list of receivers who have pillaged the Giants over the past three weeks, but that would take too long.
The Giants are No. 31 with a 57.4% pass-defense DVOA, and that feels generous. They are dead last with a pitiful 32.0 PFF coverage grade. Even that feels too high.
I expect cornerback Janoris Jenkins to shadow McLaurin, as the Giants are under the impression that he is actually good. Based on the 7-176-3 receiving performance he allowed to Mike Evans last week, I’d like to differ.
Jenkins is a seasoned professional, but he struggles against big athletic receivers. Scary Terry has good size (6-foot, 208 pounds) and is blazing fast (4.35-second 40-yard dash). I don’t see why Jenkins should hinder McLaurin’s ability to have yet another fantasy-friendly game.
The Redskins have the league’s third-highest pass-play rate at 71.8%. McLaurin should get his targets.
McLaurin is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +4.50 Projected Plus/Minus and nine Pro Trends.
Trey Quinn: Washington Redskins (+3) at New York Giants, 49.5 O/U
In Week 4, McLaurin is unlikely to be the only Redskins receiver who f—ks. Like McLaurin, Quinn comes with the MNF discount. Unlike McLaurin, he’s the stone minimum on DraftKings.
I can’t believe I’m saying this — but Quinn is a cash-viable option this week. I’m not saying that I’m 100% locking him in. I’m just saying that if he ends up in a lot of sharp cash lineups, I won’t be surprised.
There are two primary reasons to roster him.
- He offers roster flexibility. He allows you to put almost anyone else you want in your lineup.
- He seems likely to have 6-7 targets and 4-5 receptions. For $3,000, that’s pretty good.
Quinn admittedly hasn’t gone off in any game this year.
- Week 1 (at Eagles): 13.3 DraftKings points, 4-33-1 receiving on six targets
- Week 2 (vs. Cowboys): 7.6 DraftKings points, 4-36-0 receiving on seven targets
- Week 3 (vs. Bears): 8.0 DraftKings points, 5-30-0 receiving on seven targets
But he’s also avoided goose eggs, averaging 9.6 DraftKings points per game with a +3.83 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating.
With his target volume, Quinn might be able to hit salary-based expectations on receptions alone. And if he gets more yardage than usual or scores a touchdown, that will just be a bonus.
For a rock-bottom min-salary play, Quinn is actually pretty talented.
Although he was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2018 NFL Draft, he entered college as a top-three wide receiver recruit after setting the all-time high-school career receiving yardage record. Eventually, Quinn fled the dysfunctional Louisiana State program and transferred to Southern Methodist, where he led the nation with 114 receptions and 4.66 yards per route in 2017 as a redshirt junior.
Quinn might seem like another boring slot receiver, but it’s possible that he’s much more like Julian Edelman than Adam Humphries.
And this point cannot be overstated: The Giants are the nut low when it comes to pass defense.
Here’s what non-No. 1 wide receivers have done against them this year.
- Michael Gallup (Week 1, at home): 25.8 DraftKings points, 7-158-0 on seven targets
- Randall Cobb (Week 1, at home): 16.9 DraftKings points, 4-69-1 on five targets
- Cole Beasley (Week 2, on road): 12.3 DraftKings points, 4-83-0 on four targets
- Isaiah McKenzie (Week 2, on road): 12.4 DraftKings points, 2-40-1 on two targets
- Chris Godwin (Week 3, at home): 7.0 DraftKings points, 3-40-0 on four targets
This isn’t a “hold your nose and hope he doesn’t stink it up” situation. Quinn has a clear path to fantasy goodness with the target volume he’s seen this year.
Quinn has run 81.2% of his routes from the slot, so he’ll match up with cornerback Grant Haley for most of the game. Haley has a substandard 49.1 PFF coverage grade this year, and for his career he’s allowed a 76.9% completion rate.
With his agility and route-running ability, Quinn should win his one-on-one matchup with Haley.
Quinn is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 and Freedman Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 99% Bargain Rating.
Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD): Julio leads the league with four touchdowns receiving despite his longstanding end-zone allergy. Since 2013, he has averaged an NFL-best 104.0 yards receiving per game. He’s the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver with 25.2 points on DraftKings, where he has a position-high ceiling projection this week.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($7,700 DK, $8,700 FD): Nuk has done little over the last two weeks, but he has an exploitable matchup with boom/bust shadow cornerback James Bradberry. Hopkins is still top-10 in the league with 415 combined air yards and yards after the catch.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD): Evans is coming off a Week 3-best 8-190-3 receiving performance on 15 targets. The Rams are No. 5 with a 78.7 PFF coverage grade, and cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are no pushovers. But Evans is on pace to join Randy Moss as the only players in NFL history to open their careers with six straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, and since last season he’s had a 100-1 performance in 31.6% of his games.
Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,700 DK, $6,900 FD): Watkins is top-four with 24.0 DraftKings and 19.7 FanDuel points per game and 488 air yards and yards after the catch combined. He could see shadow coverage from Darius Slay (hamstring), whose injury is likely to render him less effective. The Chiefs have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($6,500 DK, $7,000 FD): Kupp leads the Rams with 31 targets, 23 receptions, 267 yards receiving, 137 yards after the catch and two receiving touchdowns. At home, he has averaged 17.5 DraftKings points with a +7.04 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency Rating across his career. He’s the No. 4 fantasy wide receiver with 22.8 DraftKings points per game.
Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD): Cooks has averaged 19.6 DraftKings points with a +5.14 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency Rating in 10 Rams home games. The Bucs are No. 26 with a -10.8% pass-defense DVOA.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD): Golladay leads the Lions with 27 targets and 373 air yards. The Lions-Chiefs game has a slate-high 55-point over/under, and Golladay could benefit from a pass-heavy game script. Since last season, he has averaged 18.0 DraftKings points with a +4.56 Plus/Minus on the positive side of his splits as a home underdog.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD): Sterling had a 7-100-1 receiving game on nine targets last week as the No. 1 wide receiver for rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, and he seems likely to maintain his volume. The Redskins have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 55.7 per game. Shepard has a good matchup in the slot against seventh-round rookie cornerback Jimmy Moreland, who has allowed an 85.7% catch rate.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($5,600 DK, $6,400 FD): Moore leads the Panthers with 26 targets and 17 receptions. Over his past 16 games he has 1,125 yards from scrimmage on 104 targets and 12 carries — but just two touchdowns. At some point his touchdown luck will change, and the Texans have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers with 48.2 per game.
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($5,600 DK, $5,900 FD): The godfather is No. 12 with 20.4 DraftKings points per game and No. 13 with 396 air yards and yards after the catch combined. And there’s room for improvement — he’s No. 3 with 18.8 expected fantasy receiving points per game (per the RotoViz Screener).
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD): Robinson easily leads the Bears with 27 targets, 17 receptions, 203 receiving yards and 269 air yards — but he has zero touchdowns. He’ll find the end zone at some point, and he’s on the positive side of splits, averaging 18.5 DraftKings points with a +6.81 Plus/Minus in his seven Bears games as a home favorite.
Demarcus Robinson, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,200 DK, $6,700 FD): D-Rob has a 9-215-3 receiving line on 10 targets in his two full games without wide receiver Tyreek Hill (clavicle). He has an aggressive 17.6-yard aDOT as a downfield threat, and the Lions have allowed a league-high 1,304 air yards.
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD): Hardman has a 6-158-2 receiving line on 11 targets in two games without Tyreek. He’s the fastest receiver on the Chiefs with his 4.33-second 40-yard speed. The Chiefs have an NFL-high explosive pass rate of 15% (per Sharp Football Stats).
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD): Kirk leads the Cards with 32 targets, 20 receptions and 118 yards after the catch. As the team’s second slot receiver, he’s likely to have a good matchup against either a No. 4 cornerback or a safety masquerading as a slot corner.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($4,800 DK, $6,100 FD): Metcalf leads the Seahawks with a 17.8-yard aDOT, and the Cardinals have allowed the league’s second-highest aDOT at 10.5. Metcalf has 60-plus yards in each of his first three games, and he has exploitable matchups against small, slow backup outside cornerbacks.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD): Samuel leads the team with 313 air yards, and in quarterback Kyle Allen’s two starts, he has averaged 15.8 DraftKings points on the strength of 5.5 targets, 3.5 receptions, 62.5 yards and a touchdown per game. He has a plus matchup against 35-year-old cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who has allowed a nice 69% catch rate this year.
Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD): Fuller is No. 13 with 310 air yards. Cornerback Donte Jackson is talented, but he’s allowed a 68.8% catch rate for his career, and last year he had four games with at least five receptions and 100 yards in his coverage. Fuller’s breakout game is coming soon.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($4,100 DK, $5,000 FD): Parker is No. 7 in the league with 447 air yards and yards after the catch combined, and he has an obscene 21.6-yard aDOT. He’s slated for a tough matchup with Casey Hayward Jr. — but it’s possible that Hayward could shadow rookie wide receiver Preston Williams. The Dolphins are No. 4 with a 71.0% pass-play rate.
J.J. Nelson, Oakland Raiders ($3,600 DK, $5,200 FD): Nelson is a deep “What the f—k is Freedman thinking?” play — but if the speedster is seeing regular action, he warrants GPP exposure. He started last week, played 78% of the snaps and put up a 4-36-1 receiving line on five targets. In his eight career games with a 70% snap rate, Nelson has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points. Across his 10 games with a touchdown (of 60 career games, including playoffs), he’s averaged 19.2 DraftKings points. He’s extreme Hollywood arbitrage.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Terry McLaurin
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
