NFL Week 4 Fantasy QB Breakdown: Lamar Jackson Will Best the Browns

The Week 4 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sept. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

All odds below as of Wednesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

• Lamar Jackson: $6,900 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
• Deshaun Watson: $6,400 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
• Jared Goff: $6,300 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
• Russell Wilson: $6,100 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
• Matt Ryan: $5,900 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel

Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs. Cleveland Browns, 46 Over/Under

Even when Jackson doesn’t look good, he’s still good enough. In Week 3, Jackson struggled mightily on the road against the Chiefs, completing just 51.2% of his attempts for a scoreless 267 yards. But he saved his day with an 8-46-1 rushing line, and his touchdown was one of the best plays of the season.

Lamar. Jackson.

That’s it, that’s the tweet.#BALvsKC (via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/MTVWsBAxkM

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 22, 2019

Even at his worst, in a performance that had Twitter questioning his development as a quarterback, Jackson still put up 21.3 FanDuel points.

That’s the power of the Konami Code. Because of his dual-threat rushing ability, Jackson has an incredibly high floor each week. In his 11 career starts (including playoffs), Jackson has 21.6 FanDuel points per game with a +4.96 Plus/Minus and 90.9% Consistency Rating. Only once has he failed to hit his salary-based expectations.

For the season, Jackson is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 28.6 FanDuel points per game, thanks to two strong performances to open the year.

• Week 1 (at Dolphins): 36.6 FanDuel points, 17-of-20 passing for 324 yards, five touchdowns, 3-6-0 rushing
• Week 2 (vs. Cardinals): 33.9 FanDuel points, 24-of-37 passing for 272 yards, two touchdowns, 16-120-1 rushing

I like Jackson for a few reasons this week.

First off, Jackson has notable favorite/underdog splits, averaging 23.5 FanDuel points per game with a +7.03 Plus/Minus as a favorite.

Additionally, against the Browns in Week 17 last year, he scored 26.2 FanDuel points on 14-of-24 passing for 179 yards and 20-90-2 rushing. He had a mediocre aerial performance in that game, but he’s significantly better as a passer this year, and his upside as a runner remains intact.

Perhaps most importantly, Browns cornerbacks Denzel Ward (hamstring) and Greedy Williams (hamstring) both missed Week 3 and are uncertain for Week 4. If he plays, I expect that Ward will shadow rookie wide receiver Marquise Brown, and although I respect Ward’s ability, Hollywood has elite speed and should be able to get deep on a hamstrung defender.

On top of that, free safety Damarious Randall (concussion) missed Weeks 2-3 and strong safety Morgan Burnett (quad) missed Week 3: Both are questionable to play. In short, the Browns were without four starters in their secondary last week, and they might be once again this week.

Even though the Browns defense is No. 7 with a -19.8% pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders), Jackson has a beneficial matchup.

In Week 4, Lamar should be LaMoney. For roster constructions that call for an expensive quarterback, Jackson is in play for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools.

Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high three Pro Trends and +5.35 Projected Plus/Minus.

Deshaun Watson: Houston Texans (-4) vs. Carolina Panthers, 46.5 O/U

He has been somewhat outshined to start the year by other high-flying quarterbacks, but Watson is still the No. 7 fantasy quarterback with 24.8 DraftKings points per game.

And he has almost certainly been better than his overall numbers suggest.

• Week 1 (at Saints): 31.7 DraftKings points, 20-of-30 passing for 268 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, 4-40-1 rushing
• Week 2 (vs. Jaguars): 12.9 DraftKings points, 16-of-29 passing for 159 yards, 4-5-1 rushing
• Week 3 (at Chargers): 29.8 DraftKings points, 25-of-34 passing for 351 yards, three touchdowns, 7-18-0 rushing

So Watson crushed in two games, and in the third game he struggled against a divisional rival Jags defense that has held opposing starting quarterbacks to 15.2 DraftKings points with a -1.08 Plus/Minus and 37.0% Consistency Rating in 54 games (including playoffs) since 2016, when the team drafted No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Setting aside his explainable performance against the Jags, Watson has done inordinately well this year.

For his career, Watson has averaged 24.2 DraftKings points with a +6.63 Plus/Minus and 76.9% Consistency Rating across 26 starts (including playoffs). Since his 2017 rookie campaign, Watson has been outproduced on a per-game basis by only Patrick Mahomes.

Watson has been aided this year by the return of field-stretching wide receiver Will Fuller, who missed the second half of last year to a season-ending knee injury. In his 26 starts, Watson has exhibited stark Fuller-based splits.

• With Fuller (14 games): 26.7 DraftKings points, 31.7 pass attempts, 282.1 yards passing, 2.57 touchdowns passing
• Without Fuller (12 games): 21.3 DraftKings points, 32.0 pass attempts, 235.5 yards passing, 1.25 touchdowns passing

Of any player targeted at least 20 times by Watson in his career, Fuller has gifted his quarterback with the greatest per-attempt efficiency (per the RotoViz AY/A app).

As long as Fuller is on the field, Watson always has a chance to go off.

But I might stay away from him in cash games this week because of two main factors.

The Texans are favored in Week 4, and while that’s theoretically good, Watson is on the wrong side of his reverse favorite/underdog splits.

• As underdog (11 games): 27.1 DraftKings points, +10.03 Plus/Minus, 81.8% Consistency Rating
• As favorite (15 games): 22.1 DraftKings points, +4.14 Plus/Minus, 73.3% Consistency Rating

Given who Watson is, these splits make sense: He’s the type of player who puts up points when his team needs him most. And as a favorite this week, he might not need to produce prolifically for the Texans to win.

Additionally, his matchup isn’t great. It’s not necessarily bad: Last year the Panthers were No. 24 with a 14.8% pass-defense DVOA. But this year they are No. 4 with an 82.4 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus). And they’ve done well against a solid slate of quarterbacks.

• Jared Goff (Week 1, home): 10.4 DraftKings points, 23-of-39 passing for 186 yards, one touchdown, one interception, 4-0-0 rushing
• Jameis Winston (Week 2, home): 13.2 DraftKings points, 16-of-25 passing for 208 yards, one touchdown, 4-9-0 rushing
• Kyler Murray (Week 3, away): 19.8 DraftKings points, 30-of-43 passing for 173 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, 8-69-0 rushing

To hold each of Goff, Winston and Murray under 20 DraftKings points is impressive.

But while Watson is too risky for cash games, he has potential in tournaments: Fuller is primed to go off as a positive regression candidate (310 air yards, 160 receiving yards). Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has an upside matchup against cornerback James Bradberry, who is a boom/bust shadow man. And slot receivers Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee have a good matchup against cornerback Ross Cockrell, who last week allowed six receptions on eight targets.

Watson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends.

Jared Goff: Los Angeles Rams (-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 49.5 O/U

Goff entered the year coming off back-to-back seasons with 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), but he has tremendously disappointed in 2019, opening the season with three straight mediocre-at-best games. Not in any week has Goff had a top-10 positional performance.

• Week 1 (at Panthers): 10.4 FanDuel points, 23-of-39 passing for 186 yards, one touchdown, one interception, 4-0-0 rushing
• Week 2 (vs. Saints): 19.1 FanDuel points, 19-of-28 passing for 283 yards, one touchdown, one rushing touchdown
• Week 3 (at Browns): 16.2 FanDuel points, 24-of-38 passing for 269 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, 4-14-0 rushing

And that’s despite the return of slot receiver Cooper Kupp, who missed the second half of last year to a season-ending knee injury. In his 38 starts under head coach Sean McVay (including playoffs), Goff has been significantly impacted by the status of Kupp.

• Kupp has snap rate of at least 50% (26 games): 18.9 FanDuel points, 8.7 AY/A
• Kupp has snap rate of less than 50% (12 games): 15.4 FanDuel points, 6.8 AY/A

Of any receiver Goff has targeted in the McVay era, Kupp has yielded the greatest efficiency for his quarterback.

That Goff hasn’t been better with his high-volume between-the-numbers chain-mover back on the field is problematic.

But he has two factors in his favor this week.

The Rams are home favorites, and Goff is on the positive side of the significant home/road and favorite/underdog splits he’s exhibited with McVay. In his 16 games as a home favorite since 2017, Goff has averaged 20.7 FanDuel points with a +4.14 Plus/Minus and 68.8% Consistency Rating. If Goff is to have a big bounceback game, he seems most likely to have it as a home favorite.

Additionally, he has a good matchup. Over the past two weeks, the Bucs have allowed back-to-back games with 333 yards passing to a broken-down Cam Newton and fresh-faced Daniel Jones in his first NFL start. In fact, the Bucs allowed Jones to have the greatest first start ever for an NFL rookie with his 34.2 FanDuel points.

The Bucs are No. 23 with a 52.7 PFF coverage grade, and not one of their starting defensive backs has an individual grade of even 65.

Goff is untouchable in cash games, but he’s desirable in tournaments, where he might have a reduced ownership rate because of his recent performance.

Goff is the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner Model for FanDuel.

Russell Wilson: Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Arizona Cardinals, 48 O/U

In the post-Marshawn Lynch era (since 2016), Wilson has been better at home and as an underdog than on the road or as a favorite.

• Home/Road Splits (DraftKings points per game): 21.9 vs. 19.5
• Favorite/Dog Splits (DraftKings points per game): 20.2 vs. 21.8

So as a road favorite, Wilson is really on the negative side of his splits. In his 11 post-Lynch road favorite games (including playoffs), he has significantly underwhelmed, averaging 17.0 DraftKings points with a -2.71 Plus/Minus and 27.3% Consistency Rating.

In the context of Wilson’s historical trends, this is a horrible spot for him: On the road, the Seahawks could look to establish the run to take the crowd out of the game and if they get a lead then they could rely all the more on the ground game because of the positive game script.

But Wilson has opened the season hotter than Hansel, currently ranking as the No. 3 fantasy quarterback with his 29.7 DraftKings points per game.

• Week 1 (vs. Bengals): 16.6 DraftKings points, 14-of-20 passing for 196 yards, two touchdowns, 4-8-0 rushing
• Week 2 (at Steelers): 28.2 DraftKings points, 29-of-35 passing for 300 yards, three touchdowns, 6-22-0 rushing
• Week 3 (vs. Saints): 44.3 DraftKings points, 32-of-50 passing for 406 yards, two touchdowns, 7-51-2 rushing

And even though Wilson is on the road and playing a divisional rival, he has a great matchup.

The Cardinals are without starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve). On the outside, wide receivers D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and David Moore should be able to exploit the fill-in corners.

And in the middle of the field, slot receiver Tyler Lockett and tight end Will Dissly should dominate. Slot cornerback Tramaine Brock has allowed a 10-229-2 receiving line on 16 targets. In each game this year, he’s allowed at least 70 yards. And strong safety D.J. Swearinger is having a horrible campaign, as evidenced by his 37.5 PFF coverage grade and 8-103-3 receiving line allowed on 11 targets.

For the season, the Cardinals have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks with 30.3 per game.

With their league-leading offense in pace (23.32 seconds per play, per Football Outsiders), the Cardinals create extra opportunities for opposing offenses: Wilson and the Seahawks could have more than 80 offensive snaps this week.

Setting aside the fact that Wilson is on the negative side of his splits, this is a #SmashSpot.

At risk of being game-scripted out of fantasy opportunities, Wilson is risky for cash games, but it will be hard to avoid at least a little exposure to him in tournaments.

Wilson is the No. 1 quarterback in the CSURAM88, Levitan, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings as well as the top option in the CSURAM88 and Levitan Models for FanDuel.

Matt Ryan: Atlanta Falcons (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans, 45 O/U

The investment thesis for Ryan is pretty simple: He’s at home. Since 2014, when wide receiver Julio Jones initiated his current streak of more-or-less complete seasons, Ryan has had clear location-based splits.

• At home (42 games): 21.4 DraftKings points, +2.20 Plus/Minus, 57.1% Consistency Rating
• On road (44 games): 19.6 DraftKings points, +0.70 Plus/Minus, 45.5% Consistency Rating

Since Ryan’s 2016 MVP campaign, he has been one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the league (minus a regression-filled 2017 season), and his start to the season has been about as good as one might expect.

• Week 1 (at Vikings): 23.6 DraftKings points, 33-of-46 passing for 304 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, 2-24-0 rushing
• Week 2 (vs. Eagles): 25.1 DraftKings points, 27-of-43 passing for 320 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, 2-3-0 rushing
• Week 3 (at Colts): 26.5 DraftKings points, 29-of-34 passing for 304 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, 2-3-0 rushing

Ryan has a league-high six interceptions, and that’s concerning, but he usually is not careless with the ball, and he at least has an NFL-best 12 end-zone targets, which somewhat counterbalance his turnovers.

Ryan has 4,000-plus yards passing in each season since Jones entered the league in 2011, and he’s always a reasonable bet to get the 300-yard passing bonus on DraftKings: Since Ryan’s transcendent 2016 season, he leads the league with 14,891 yards passing. He also leads the league since 2017 with 9,947 yards, and only Mahomes has more than Ryan’s 5,852 since last year.

For 2019, Ryan is the No. 6 fantasy quarterback with 25.0 DraftKings points per game. He has hit his salary-based expectations every week and averaged a strong +7.85 Plus/Minus.

Despite his home location and consistent production, Ryan is more of a tournament play than cash option this week because of his matchup. The Titans last year were No. 5 with a 90.2 PFF coverage grade and have held quarterbacks to just 16.2 DraftKings points per game this year.

True, the slate of quarterbacks they’ve faced isn’t incredibly impressive — Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew — but they are coming off Thursday Night Football and should be rested and prepared with the three extra days.

I still expect Ryan to have success against the Titans, if for no other reason than the fact that Julio is his primary receiver, and in his two career matchups with cornerback Malcolm Brown, against whom he’s likely to run most of his routes, he’s had success.

• Super Bowl (2016): 4-87-0 receiving on four targets
• Week 7 (2017, on road): 9-99-1 on 13 targets

For GPPs, look to roster Ryan on DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating and is the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner and Freedman Models.

Upside Quarterbacks for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,500 DK, $9,200 FD): Mahomes has laughed in the face of regression, opening the season with three straight 300-yard, three-touchdown games and a league-high 12.2 AY/A. The Lions have allowed a league-high 1,304 air yards (per AirYards.com). The Chiefs-Lions game has a slate-high 53.5-point over/under. Mahomes has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots ($6,600 DK, $7,800 FD): Brady has either 300 yards passing or three touchdowns in every game this year and is the No. 5 fantasy quarterback with his 23.5 points per game on FanDuel, where he has a slate-high 65% Bargain Rating. But the Bills are No. 4 with a -26.9 pass-defense DVOA, and Brady has struggled against them under defensive-minded head coach Sean McDermott, averaging 11.7 FanDuel points with a -6.67 Plus/Minus and 0.0% Consistency Rating in four games.

Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,200 DK, $7,800 FD): The Chargers are heading east for a 1:00 p.m. ET game, so that’s less than ideal, but Rivers is averaging 314.7 yards passing per game, and the Dolphins are dead last with an 84.9% pass-defense DVOA. The Chargers have a slate-high 30.5-point implied total.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals ($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD): Murray has an NFL-best 137 pass attempts, and the Cardinals have a league-high 73.2% pass-play rate. Kyler is the No. 10 fantasy quarterback with 21.6 DraftKings points per game, a +5.35 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating. The Seahawks are No. 23 with a 52.7 PFF coverage grade.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions ($5,500 DK, $6,900 FD): The Lions will likely need to throw a lot to keep pace with the Chiefs. Stafford will have a low ownership rate and provides contrarian leverage on Mahomes, and he has play-making pass-catching options in wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back Kerryon Johnson. The Chiefs last year allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks with 22.4 per game.

Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts ($5,400 DK, $7,300 FD): Brissett is yet to have a huge passing day, but he has had multiple touchdowns in each game, and the Raiders are No. 31 with a 34.0 PFF coverage grade.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants ($5,300 DK, $7,300 FD): Danny Dimes completed 63.9% of his attempts in his NFL debut last week for 336 yards and two touchdowns, and he flashed his Konami Code ability with a 4-28-2 rushing line. He is a strong cash-game option this week, and he was one of the top GPP quarterbacks last week. The Redskins are No. 27 with a 42.1% pass-defense DVOA.

Kyle Allen, Carolina Panthers ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD): Allen has 24.7 FanDuel points per game in his two NFL starts and dynamic pass-catching producers in wide receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Greg Olsen. The Texans have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points to quarterbacks with 21.9 per game.

Case Keenum, Washington Redskins ($4,900 DK, $7,200 FD): Keenum is too cheap thanks to the Monday Night Football discount — Week 4 salaries were set on Sunday before the Redskins’ MNF game — and although his effort hasn’t been aesthetically pleasing, he has a 69.4% completion rate with 311 yards passing per game and multiple touchdowns each week. The Giants are dead last with a 32.0 PFF coverage grade. Keenum has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Use our Lineup Builder to stack Keenum with wide receiver Terry McLaurin.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Lamar Jackson
Photo credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports